The balance of power is heavily in favour of the US and Israel.
These are two of the world’s most powerful and technologically advanced militaries in the world.
There are two US carrier strike groups in the region with over 200 warplanes while Iran, under sweeping sanctions for years, has no air force to speak of.
Both Israel and the US enjoy complete air superiority.
But Tehran still has some things on its side.
The regime, although weakened and unpopular with much of its population, only has to survive to proclaim itself the long-term winner in this conflict.
The Islamic Republic, with its cult of martyrdom, can take a lot more pain than the US can and the longer this conflict goes on the keener President Trump will be to find an off-ramp.
Will the US and Iran return to talks?
If the Iranian regime collapses, that will not be necessary.
But if the regime survives, and it may well, then Washington’s triple demands of Tehran will come back into focus, namely: a curb on Iran’s suspect nuclear programme, including a return to inspections; an end to Iran’s ballistic missile programme; and an end to Iran’s support for proxy militias around the region, such as the Hezbullah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
Oman says real progress was being made in talks in Geneva last month on the nuclear file.
But Iran ruled out discussing the other two issues – leading Donald Trump to say he was “not happy with the way the talks are going”.
It is possible that back channel contacts could well produce a ceasefire, followed by a return to talks.
But if the two sides’ bargaining positions have not moved then military action could well resume.
So this conflict has yet to run its course.
