Sean Barnard details his pick and prediction for Monday’s college basketball matchup between the McNeese State Cowboys and the Nicholls State Colonels.
It is a mild slate of college basketball across the Monday schedule as the NCAA begins to step into the center stage of the sports world. Tipping off at 7:30 p.m. ET, the McNeese State Cowboys will be facing off with the Nicholls State Colonels.
This is the second matchup of the season for these Southland Conference opponents. McNeese produced a 94-68 win in the first matchup between these two teams, stretching the lead to as much as 31 points and holding a lead for 90 percent of the matchup.
Looking at the odds for tonight, McNeese State enters as a 10.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook with -650 odds of winning outright. Nicholls State holds +470 odds on the Moneyline, with the game total set at O/U 145.5 points.
McNeese State vs. Nicholls State prediction, preview
The McNeese State Cowboys enter this matchup with a 25-5 record and have gone 18-3 in Southland Conference play. They are coming off back-to-back seasons in which they have qualified for the NCAA Tournament and will be looking to do the same this year. McNeese enters this matchup on a seven-game winning streak and has won 11 of its last 12. On the season, the Cowboys have gone 13-15 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 15 of their 28 matchups played.
Larry Johnson headlines the scoring with 16.9 points per game, along with his 5.2 rebounds and 1.0 steals per game. Tyshawn Archie adds 14.1 points, 2.8 assists and 1.5 steals, shooting 37.1% on three-point attempts. Javohn Garcia is the lone other layer to average in double-figures with 11.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.7 steals. In addition, DJ Richards, Garwey Dual, Jerrell Colbert, Jacolb Cole, and Carl Cherenfant each also play key roles in the rotation.
As a team, McNeese State is scoring 80.2 points per game, which ranks 82nd among the 365 D1 teams. The Cowboys also rank 40th in offensive rating, 68th in team field goal percentage, and 300th in team three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring the 22nd-fewest points per game against the Cowboys at 66.3 per contest. McNeese State also ranks 25th in defensive rating, 34th in opponents field goal percentage, 126th in opponent three-point percentage, and generates the third-most steals in the country.
The Nicholls State Colonels arrive with a 13-17 record on the season and have gone 12-9 in conference play. They enter this matchup coming off back-to-back wins over Lamar and Southeast Louisiana, but have dropped nine of their last 14 games. On the season, Nicholls State has gone 14-15 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 16 of the 29 qualifying games.
Jalik Dunkley is the team’s leading scorer with 12.9 points and 7.0 rebounds per game. Jaylen Searles adds 12.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.0 assists, while attempting a team-high 5.4 three-point attempts per game. Sincere Malone leads the conference in 2.1 steals per game, while adding 11.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 3.2 assists. Trae English is the lone other player to average in double-figures with 11.2 points and a team-high 3.4 assists of his own. Zee Hamoda, Christian Winborne, Zaiden Cross, and Jalin Rice each also play key roles in the rotation.
Nicholls State is scoring 73.1 points per game this season, which ranks 259th out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. The Colonels also rank 261st in offensive rating, 265th in team field goal percentage, and 192nd in team three-point percentage. Defensively, teams are scoring 75.4 points per game against the Colonels. This ranks 231st in the country, and they also rank 238th in defensive rating, 335th in opponent field goal percentage, and 238th in opponent three-point percentage.
McNeese State vs. Nicholls State pick, best bet
McNeese State was able to pick up a 94-68 victory over Nicholls State in the first matchup between these two teams in a dominant victory. The Cowboys led for 90% of the matchup, extending the lead to as much as 31, also shooting 52% from the field and 48% on three-point attempts in the victory. Nicholls State has shown some encouraging flashes since this point, but this is not a matchup the team is built to exploit.
Expect the defense of McNeese State to play a major role in this matchup. The Cowboys are holding teams to the 22nd-fewest points in the country and generate the third-most steals. Opponents are turning the ball over at the second highest-rate when facing the Cowboys. This will be problematic against a Nicholls State team that ranks 194th in turnovers, with six players on the roster averaging over a turnover per game.
There are some additional stakes in this matchup, with this being the regular season finale and the conference tournament taking place next. Nicholls State is fighting for its tournament life with only the top-eight teams making the Southland field. Meanwhile, McNeese State is looking to lock up the top seed and earn the conference regular season title.
As much as the level of desire favors Nicholls State, this does not make up for the gap in talent and the matchup discrepancy. Nicholls State has lost five of its past six home games while playing teams of a lesser caliber of talent as McNeese State. The Cowboys have also won 33 of their last 35 night games against conference opponents. McNeese State also ranks 36th in the country with a +9.8 average margin of victory. Eight of the 13 games they have covered the spread this season have been as 13.5-point favorites or greater.
Expect the Cowboys to have success creating turnovers, enforcing themselves defensively, and being the clear better team in this matchup. Nicholls State has played some better basketball of late, but the gap in talent between these two opponents is more than the 10.5-point number indicates. Count on McNeese State to be prepared to finish the regular season on a high note and add another convincing win to the resume by more than the 10.5-point spread tonight.
Best Bet: McNeese State -10.5 (-102)
