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2026 Free Agent Forecast: Running Backs

As for Henderson, the 36th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft’s breakaway run rate of 38.1% ranked behind only Dolphins RB De’Von Achane and Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs, which is pretty good company. In 2025, Henderson accumulated 1,132 scrimmage yards and 10 total touchdowns, and was a finalist for the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. However, a few peak performances against the Bucs (14 carries, 147 yards, 2 TDs) and Bills (14 carries, 148 yards, 2 TDs) contributed greatly to Henderson’s gaudy stats. Plus, some rookie growing pains led to Henderson’s snap usage decreasing from 45.8% in the regular season to 31.4% in the postseason, with the Patriots riding Stevenson during their playoff run.

More specifically, Henderson had some struggles with his run-reads between the tackles, where he could improve at finding clean entry points and recognizing cutback lanes. Henderson also had some issues with picking up blitzes, which limited his role in the passing game, where his play speed should shine as a receiver. Although there are areas of improvement needed to hit his ceiling, the 23-year-old has all the physical tools to be a factor-back in the NFL. It’s important to keep in mind that his areas of improvement are common for young running backs. Many running backs redshirt as rookies, so the fact Henderson played and contributed in his first year means his arrow is pointing upward.

As for the rest of the running back room, New England recently released veteran RB Antonio Gibson, who missed the majority of the 2025 season with a significant knee injury. The Pats have second-year RB Terrell Jennings and undrafted rookie Lan Larison under contract, with Larison spending his rookie season on injured reserve. That said, the free-agent market does have some immediate contributors if New England wants to fill its open RB3 spot.

This offseason, the free agency market is filled with mostly instant-impact backs who are short-term fixes for teams, such as Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker, Jets RB Breece Hall, Panthers RB Rico Dowdle, and Jags RB Travis Etienne. However, it’s not a good running back class in the 2026 NFL Draft and free agency doesn’t have many long-term options either, so it seems unlikely that the Patriots will be in the market for a lead-back with Henderson and Stevenson returning. It will be interesting to see how the secondary RB market develops in a weak draft year. Teams that need immediate contributors might overpay in free agency.

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