It’s trade deadline week. Should your favorite team do something big? Yes. Will they? Probably not.
That’s life in the NHL, a results-oriented league where the outcome is all that matters unless you’re a GM, in which case you’re allowed to mumble about your job being hard and everyone is supposed to feel sorry for you. These guys have only had four months to figure this stuff out since the season started, including two weeks off during the Olympics. Be reasonable.
Or don’t. Today, we’re going to give that option a try. We’ll pick a team and lay out the honest and, yes, reasonable view for why they should play it safe and avoid any truly major moves. And then we’ll try to make the case for why they should break the mold and actually take a big swing.
We tried this last year, with all 32 teams. This year, we’re going to cut that list down. Some teams are obvious sellers who shouldn’t need any convincing. Others will obviously buy. By my count, there are at least five scenarios that could see a team on the fence about a blockbuster.
Will any of these teams take our advice? Based on how it’s going so far, of course not. Do we even really believe most of this stuff? Not necessarily. But that’s OK, the venting will make us feel better. Let’s start off …
Vancouver Canucks
Be reasonable: The Canucks are bad, and they know that, and they’re selling. But like most bad teams, they don’t have all that much to offer. And they’ve already made two big moves this season: one certified blockbuster (Quinn Hughes to the Minnesota Wild) and one more traditional rental (Kiefer Sherwood to the San Jose Sharks). They’re going to move Tyler Myers and probably Evander Kane. They’ve been trying to move Conor Garland for a while and there just doesn’t seem to be anyone interested in meeting their asking price.
Beyond that, there’s not much left they can move. What do you want them to do, trade Elias Pettersson and his $92.8 million contract?
BUT: Yes, they absolutely should be trying to move Pettersson and his contract. That should be their single highest priority. And they need to do it before any lingering window slams shut.
Look, Pettersson’s 2022-23 season, which saw him score 102 points as a 24-year-old, made him seem like a blossoming star. But it turns out that was the high point; he has one other season where he’s cracked 70 points. The Canucks paid him like a franchise player, and now he’s shown he isn’t that guy. Maybe a year ago, you could hand-wave those concerns away by blaming J.T. Miller, but he’s long gone and Pettersson is still a mess.
And yet his name is still floating around on insider trade boards and rumor mills. Maybe that’s wishful thinking. But maybe it’s because there’s still a team or two out there that would be willing to at least think about rolling the dice. And if there are, the Canucks should get them on the phone and refuse to hang up until a deal is done.
Yes, you’d be selling low. Yes, the return would feel meager compared to what it would have been a few years ago. Yes, you might even have to take back some junk contracts to make the math work. Do it anyway. This could be the very last opportunity to open an escape hatch on Pettersson’s albatross of a contract. A rebuild is coming in Vancouver, maybe even one built around Gavin McKenna, and it’s time to clear the slate.
If Pettersson goes somewhere else and actually does rediscover his game, even getting back to that 100-point level, so be it. Good for him. Seriously, you wish him all the best. But it’s not going to happen in Vancouver, and at this point the only decision left to make is whether this team wants to be left holding the bag for the next six years. The answer should be obvious.
Buffalo Sabres
Be reasonable: They’ll be buyers. But the team has been on fire since December, so you want to be careful about messing with the room too much. Besides, we’d all assumed they’d be trading Alex Tuch, so when they keep him, it will almost be like they’re making a blockbuster trade with themselves. Beyond that, tinker here and there, but don’t overplay the hand.
BUT: Fifteen years! That’s how long Sabres fans have been waiting to get back to the playoffs. Now it’s finally going to happen. If you’d told Buffalo fans last summer that the drought would end this year, they’d probably have been happy with that, especially given how stacked the Atlantic looked.
But that was then. Today, we know that the Atlantic isn’t stacked at all, with the Toronto Maple Leafs circling the drain and the Florida Panthers not much better. As far as the old guard, only the Tampa Bay Lightning are left, holding onto top spot as the younger teams chase them down.
The Sabres are the best of those teams, and they just smoked the Lightning in their own building. There’s a path here. And while it’s tempting to look at this year’s Sabres as a team on the rise that will get plenty more kicks at the can, that’s not always how this works. Once in a great while, a team has a year where everything breaks their way. Maybe this is the season that the hockey gods are finally paying the Sabres back for a decade-plus of misery. If so, take advantage.
That should mean exploring rentals. But it should also mean going hard after names such as Robert Thomas, who could be part of the program for years to come. Unlike just about all the other contenders, the Sabres are deep in cap space, picks and prospects.
And then there’s the Jarmo Kekäläinen factor. He’s certainly not afraid of making big trades, as his trophy case full of Sam Pollocks attests. Do you think he’s maybe just a little bit sick of hearing about how Kevyn Adams built this team and deserves a big chunk (if not all) of the credit for its success?
Maybe not. But with rumors swirling about the Sabres being in on names such as Thomas, the time feels right for the Sabres to plant their flag and announce that they’re back in the big leagues. Their fans have waited long enough.
The Central’s big three
Be reasonable: The Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild are arguably the league’s three best teams. And because they’re all in the same division, the path to the conference final is already brutal, which suggests that this isn’t the year to go all in.
Besides, the teams have already made big moves — the Wild made the biggest trade in years by landing Quinn Hughes, the Stars went out and got Mikko Rantanen at last year’s deadline, and the Avs are still reaping the rewards of remaking their goaltending and adding Brock Nelson. The moves have already been made, they worked, and the teams are legitimate contenders. They’ve even made smaller moves this week for guys such as Michael McCarron and Brett Kulak. The work here is done.
Besides, if one team takes a big swing, then the others might feel obligated to respond in kind, and we all just wind up back where we started. Do you really want to see the best division in hockey turn into even more of an arms race, with three teams throwing their remaining picks and prospects at anything that moves?
BUT: This is exactly what I want, thanks for asking.
But even beyond the entertainment value of watching these three teams one-up each other over the next few days, there are legitimate reasons for any or all of them to make big moves. Start with the one we’ve already mentioned: the path out of the division is brutal. Knowing that, a GM can shrug and say we’ll just have to see how it plays out, or he can do anything he can to up his team’s odds, even just a little bit.
Beyond that, all three teams have more cap room than you’d think — enough to chase most big names who might be available. And for all three, that might be a limited-time opportunity. The Stars have a Jason Robertson extension to figure out and Tyler Seguin presumably coming off LTIR next year, the Wild have the Kirill Kaprizov extension kicking in on July 1, and the Avalanche have the Cale Makar extension looming. The window is open, but might not be for long.
That probably rules all three teams out of any of the bigger names with term, although there’s something to be said for the strategy of “Forget it, we’ll figure it out later, flags fly forever.” But let’s say Colorado, sitting with the most flexibility right now, makes a big move. Are the Wild and Stars really going to just concede, agreeing to bash each other’s heads in through round one just for the honor of losing to the waiting Avs? They could. But they shouldn’t. All three teams got this good thanks to some aggressive, smart roster management. There’s no backing down.
St. Louis Blues
Be reasonable: This one’s tricky, because the Blues’ top players have been all over the rumor mill. They certainly don’t sound like a team that’s going to be quiet, given how often we’ve been hearing about Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Brayden Schenn and Jordan Binnington.
But there’s a good chance it’s all a bluff. A classic bait-and-switch. You leak the big names, wait for the phone to ring and then have the conversations. If somebody blows you away with an offer, you can think about it. But more likely, you hem and haw for a bit, and then turn the attention to lesser names. Thomas and Kyrou are the bait, but they’re not going anywhere.
BUT: The Blues are bad, and bad teams should sell. They usually can’t, at least as much as they’d like, because bad teams don’t have many players anyone else would want. But the Blues do. And they’re in a unique situation, because we know this is Doug Armstrong’s last deadline as GM before he hands the reins over to Alex Steen. That presents the opportunity to run a little bit of a good cop/bad cop routine, where Armstrong does the nasty business of stripping the roster down to the studs before Steen gets to come in and build it back up.
That’s not to say that Steen wouldn’t be in on any deals that happen this week; obviously he’d have to be. But perception matters, and having a Cup-winning GM clear the slate for the incoming rookie makes a lot of sense.
Beyond that, even if this all started off as the kind of bluff I outlined above, at some point you’ve subjected your players to so much smoke that you might as well light the fire. Thomas and Kyrou are both young enough to be part of a turnaround in St. Louis, but clearly the organization is at least a little bit hesitant to commit. Well, shoot or get off the point. And the Blues have spent the last few weeks winding up. It’s time to let it rip.
So trade Thomas. Or trade Kyrou. Or trade both. Schenn too, if you can. We often talk about dominoes falling, and Thomas is the best asset on the market. But the Blues are positioned to have a few pieces in play once the first one tips over. The only thing missing, so far, is the boldness to actually make it happen. Enough talk. Now’s the time. The rebuild ahead is a big one, but it could look an awful lot smaller in a few days.
As for Binnington, well … are there any contenders out there who desperately need a goalie? Oh wait, I just thought of one …
Edmonton Oilers
Be reasonable: They’ve already made their big moves. Everyone wanted them to get a goalie, so they did. They’ve added Connor Murphy this week. They might make another move or two, but the hard work is already done. And in a weak Pacific, it’s probably enough.
BUT: “Probably” shouldn’t cut it in Edmonton, where a championship-caliber core has come agonizingly close over the years. They’re right there. And Stan Bowman wasn’t brought in to build this team, but to push it over the finish line. Well, get pushing.
And he should start in goal. Yes, they already tried that. It didn’t work. Tristan Jarry isn’t the answer, which is a possibility everyone saw at the time. One nice part about that move was that it came early enough in the season that there was time to pivot if it was clear Jarry wasn’t the guy. Well, he’s not. Pivot time is here.
Who should they go get? Great question. I offered a few suggestions back in December, right before they settled for Jarry. Many of those ideas weren’t remotely realistic. But some might be. What about Binnington? He’s been bad this year on a hopeless team, but looked good at the Olympics. Connor McDavid has won a big game or two with that guy.
Or what about Sergei Bobrovsky, the goalie who beat them twice in the final, who could be available as a rental?
The point is that Jarry was worth a try. He represented a lower-risk (and lower-cost) option than other names. If it had worked, great. It hasn’t worked. You took one swing, and you fouled the pitch off into your own crotch. It happens. Get up, dust yourself off, and get back in the batter’s box.
You have McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and a fan base that deserves to see them finally finish the story. Depth moves are nice, but you mustn’t be afraid to dream a little bigger, darling. Find your target, and take the shot.
