This might not be the best offseason to need a quarterback.
There’s only one quarterback (Fernando Mendoza) in the NFL Draft with a universal first-round grade. The top free agent is either coming off a torn Achilles (Daniel Jones, transition-tagged by the Colts) or has started six career games (Malik Willis). There are intriguing, young backup quarterbacks (Mac Jones, Tanner McKee) stuck on teams demanding a hefty trade price. There are once-successful veterans on teams desperate to get rid of them (Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa), and there’s a 42-year-old who loves darkness (Aaron Rodgers).
Many of the league’s bad teams are looking toward the 2027 draft class. If that’s true, let’s call this the Year of the Stopgap.
In 2024, I had nine teams listed as “Open for business” and a few more on the fence. Last year, I had six as “Open for business” and four others that might be. The openings in this cycle feel much more obvious than in past years — even if the options to fill them are not particularly exciting.
This is the third year I’m taking a dive into predicting who the league’s starting quarterbacks will be. I had a good year in 2024. Last year, not so much.
This year, there’s a decent chance many of the teams with openings will have them again in 2027.
The legal tampering period for free agency opens Monday at noon ET. Let’s handicap this year’s field by figuring out how many jobs are definitely open, which jobs might be open, which teams are already set at starting quarterback — and what realistic options are out there for teams that need a new one.
A look at how every NFL team stacks up in terms of their starting QB spot.
That leaves eight teams Open for Business:
- Browns
- Cardinals
- Colts
- Dolphins
- Jets
- Raiders
- Steelers
- Vikings
The options
Let’s run through the starting-caliber — or fringe starting-caliber — quarterbacks who could be available this offseason.
The predictions
Browns: Shedeur Sanders, Deshaun Watson, Dillon Gabriel and Justin Fields
A free-for-all! It feels like the Browns are headed this way, a room filled with three returning options in Sanders, Watson and Gabriel — plus another one (or two) added to the room for good measure and good (is that the right word?) competition.
Watson is healthy, and the Browns have no choice but to keep him around because of his contract. Browns coach Todd Monken said this about Watson, indicating he’ll have a real shot to win the job: “Anytime that you have a player that at one time has exhibited that skill set at an elite level, you’re always going to give them the benefit of the doubt.”
There are fans who believe in Sanders, and he did show some flashes in his rookie season, but he was highly inconsistent and the numbers don’t look great. Sanders threw seven touchdowns, 10 interceptions and ranked 41st of 42 eligible quarterbacks in EPA per attempt (only Jets undrafted rookie Brady Cook was worse).
Gabriel threw seven touchdowns and two interceptions but also ranked 40th in EPA per attempt and his off-target throw percentage (13.5 percent) ranked 35th. He does not look like a starting-caliber quarterback.
That’s not to say Fields is looking that way these days either. After playing perhaps the best he has in his Jets debut against the Steelers, he struggled immensely, passing for fewer than 100 yards four times. By the end of the season, Fields seemed scared to throw the ball and struggled to work through his progressions. But there is talent — and his mobility is undoubtedly a weapon, something that few are better at weaponizing than Monken. Fields won’t cost much at this point and, as an added bonus, he’s a beloved figure in Ohio thanks to his time as a Buckeye.
In terms of the NFL Draft, keep an eye on Miami’s Carson Beck, whom Monken coached at Georgia.
Cardinals: Malik Willis and Jacoby Brissett
The Cardinals and Dolphins feel like the favorites for Willis, and there is a fair argument that Arizona has more to offer than Miami. The Cardinals should have more cap space than Miami — they have $31 million in cap space now, and they can counteract the approximately $2 million they’ll lose after releasing Kyler Murray by parting ways with James Conner and others. Willis is likely going to command in the range of $25 million to $30 million a year, and he’s the best young option for the Cardinals heading into a draft class not exactly replete with potential franchise QBs beyond Mendoza.
The supporting cast in Arizona is solid with tight end Trey McBride, wide receivers Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr., plus an OK offensive line — it ranked 21st in pass block win rate and 15th in run block win rate in 2025.
Willis was at his best with Matt LaFleur coaching him in Green Bay, where Cardinals offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett was also on staff. And so Cardinals first-year coach Mike LaFleur — Matt’s brother, who counts himself as part of both the Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan coaching trees — has plenty of resources to figure out how to put Willis in position to succeed. As an added bonus, general manager Monti Ossenfort was in the Titans front office when Tennessee drafted Willis in 2022 and said this about him at the combine:
“Malik did a great job when he went in there for Green Bay this year,” Ossenfort said. “I was with Malik for a short time there in Tennessee, he had a great college career coming out. So he’s one of the quarterbacks that’s available. We’ll evaluate all our options, whether it’s free agency, the draft, with that position, with every position. And we’ll be prepared to do what’s best for the team.”
Brissett might garner trade interest, but there are worse options than keeping him around as the No. 2 quarterback. If they move on, look for Jimmy Garoppolo to get a look — he and LaFleur have a close relationship from their time together with the Rams and 49ers.
Colts: Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor
The Colts are doing everything they can to bring Jones back and have used the transition tag to help retain him. Even coming off a torn Achilles, he’s likely going to get a significant new contract — if he doesn’t, he would still earn nearly $38 million on the transition tag’s one-year tender. It’s unclear yet if he’ll be ready for Week 1, so expect Indianapolis to find a workable stopgap solution to carry the load — and to step in if Jones gets hurt again.
Maybe that will be Riley Leonard; he showed some flashes at the end of last season, and the coaching staff seems fond of him. But someone like Taylor would make some sense as a veteran backup to bring into the room. On top of being one of the most well-liked locker-room guys in the NFL, Taylor is a capable quarterback when called upon (21st in EPA per attempt, per TruMedia, among QBs with at least 300 pass attempts over the last four years), and he and Shane Steichen crossed paths with the Chargers in 2020.
Taylor does have some durability concerns, but it helps to have Leonard in the fold already, too. Leonard was impressive in the season finale against the Texans: 270 yards, two touchdowns, one interception and one rushing touchdown. As an added bonus: Taylor has been Jones’ backup before, with the Giants in 2022 and 2023.
Dolphins: Mac Jones
The Dolphins have been tied to Willis most often, but I’m not as convinced they’re going to splurge at quarterback in the first season of the Jon-Eric Sullivan and Jeff Hafley era. They are in the process of tearing things down to create more cap flexibility.
I’d expect them to invest in the offensive line and try to build a better environment for whoever their long-term answer is at quarterback. It feels more likely right now that they shop for quarterbacks who are cost-effective — and Willis will likely command in the $25 million to $30 million per season range, as mentioned.
So why Jones?
It won’t be cheap to acquire him (the buzz is that the 49ers want a second-round pick plus more in any trade), but financially it would be inexpensive. Jones has a base salary of $1.4 million, and only $1 million of that is guaranteed.
He is still only 27 and showed last year in San Francisco that he can thrive in the right environment: 69.6 percent completions, 13 touchdowns, seven interceptions — he ranked ninth among qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per attempt. The 49ers have insisted they have no plans to trade him and that might be true, but the Dolphins have enough assets to make it work without hamstringing themselves. (I also am skeptical they’d really go into the season with Quinn Ewers as their starter.)
As a bonus: offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik comes from the Kyle Shanahan tree, which should make things easier for Jones coming to Miami. I also considered Murray here — he won’t cost much since the Cardinals will still be paying him.
As for a trade involving Jones: Miami owns a second-round pick (No. 43), three third-round picks (Nos. 75, 87 and 90), a fourth-round pick (No. 111) and all of their own picks in 2027.
I’d also expect the Dolphins to draft a quarterback at some point. Sullivan spoke at the combine about wanting to draft one every year, if not every other year. Local fans might not be mad if they added Miami’s Carson Beck into the fold.
Falcons: Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa
Penix is recovering from a partially torn ACL suffered in November, which complicates the Falcons’ offseason plans. The new regime — president Matt Ryan, GM Ian Cunningham and head coach Kevin Stefanski — have to figure out: 1) How healthy Penix will be for the start of the season; 2) Whether they’ve seen enough from him (unlikely) in two seasons to make him the no-doubt starter; and 3) What level of competition they want to bring in.
Of the potentially available options, Tagovailoa is especially intriguing for the Falcons. He’s either going to be outright released by the Dolphins or traded in some sort of deal where they eat some of his salary and likely give another team a draft pick to take Tagovailoa off their hands. More likely, it’s the free agent route — and so Tagovailoa will come cheaply contract-wise.
Tagovailoa has shown enough in his career for Stefanski to believe he can get the most out of him, even if he was bad last season in Miami: 30th in EPA per dropback (minimum 100 pass attempts) with 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions, eventually getting benched for Ewers.
Both Tagovailoa and Penix are left-handed, simplifying things for the rest of the offense should they flip-flop. And for anyone who might be worried about Tagovailoa’s ability to play outside of the sunny state of Florida, his home games in Atlanta would be inside a dome. Tagovailoa is at his best when he’s surrounded by playmakers (shocking, I know), which the Falcons have with Drake London, Bijan Robinson and, assuming he returns, Kyle Pitts (Atlanta has franchise-tagged the tight end). Plus, the Falcons ranked 14th in pass block win rate in 2025 and allowed the fourth-fewest sacks in the NFL.
Tagovailoa is a perfectly capable stopgap solution, if not capable of taking over full-time as the starter in 2026 if Penix isn’t the answer.
Jets: Kyler Murray, Andy Dalton and Drew Allar
I cover the Jets for a living, and I still found this to be the toughest QB-needy team to project. The Jets arrived at the NFL Combine on a fact-finding mission, trying to figure out which quarterbacks will actually break free, which ones are available on the trade market and how much they would cost. They did not have a No. 1 target on their list yet when they flew out to Indianapolis.
Aaron Glenn is in a challenging spot coming off a 3-14 season; the assumption is that he enters the season on the hot seat. The Jets should be building toward the 2027 NFL Draft, when they’ll have three first-round picks. This is not a team that’s likely going to make the playoffs in 2026. So what does that mean?
I still think Glenn, who has the stamp of approval for all roster decisions, will want to take a swing on someone he thinks can be a winning quarterback. The biggest swings on the market are Willis and Murray. The Jets are unlikely to pay over $20 million per season on an unknown commodity (Willis) in free agency for the second straight season after how terribly it went with Fields in 2025.
Murray is not a perfect fit stylistically in light of the quarterbacks offensive coordinator Frank Reich has typically favored, but I think Glenn is higher on Murray than many would expect. He has always had an affinity for mobile quarterbacks, and Murray has a history of production and success as a passer (more than Fields had, certainly) — even if 2025 was a poor showing before he was shut down by Arizona. Glenn believes he has the ability to make things work with just about anyone. He also has known Kevin Murray, Kyler’s father, for a long time thanks to their Texas A&M ties (Kevin played there in the 1980s, and Glenn in the 1990s).
Murray will be released by Arizona and thus wouldn’t cost the Jets much financially. I don’t make this prediction with a whole lot of confidence, but I do think this is something that might happen. For the Jets, it was between the two Cardinals quarterbacks, Murray and Brissett. And if we were doing odds, I’d say Brissett is more likely.
As for Dalton, Reich is installing the offense he was trying to run in Carolina in 2023 before he got fired, and Dalton was with the Panthers then; he’s an ideal option as a veteran backup to replace Taylor. Reich said this about Dalton in 2023: “The way he’s throwing the football, the way he works through progressions, the way he handles the operation. … Since day one (when) he walked in the door, I’m like, ‘This guy is starter-worthy.’ You guys know I’ve said that all along. He’s, in my opinion, one of the best 32 quarterbacks in the world.”
I also predict, in this scenario, that the Jets draft a quarterback. For prediction’s sake, let’s call it Allar.
Raiders: Fernando Mendoza and Geno Smith
The first part isn’t that hard: Mendoza will be the draft’s No. 1 pick.
As for the second part: I’m not as convinced that the Raiders are definitely going to release Smith. They don’t need the cap space — Over the Cap has them at $89 million even with Smith’s $26.5 million cap hit. General manager John Spytek has talked about not wanting to rush a rookie quarterback into starting before he’s ready, so having Smith in the building — better than most stopgap quarterback options out there — would be a good starting point. Plus, there’s the likelihood that another team strikes out with its top quarterback options and becomes desperate, a scenario in which Smith would have value as a starting-caliber option.
His numbers weren’t great in 2025: 19 touchdowns, 17 interceptions and he ranked 32nd in EPA per attempt. But it’s not as if Smith was put in position to succeed. If Smith does wind up getting released, he’ll have plenty of interest — which is why the Raiders have no reason to force cutting him.
Steelers: Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Nussmeier
Nobody ever really knows what Rodgers is going to do, but it feels like a safe bet that he returns for one more year and the chance to reunite with old friend Mike McCarthy. At this point, Rodgers is a limited 42-year-old who avoids contact but does just enough to win some games — ideal for a team that seems dead set on hovering around as a nine-win team for all of eternity.
If Rodgers is the quarterback, the Steelers then need to decide if Will Howard is good enough to develop as his future replacement or if there is a rookie out there worth bringing in to learn behind one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier would be an interesting target in the second round, where the Steelers pick 53rd. He is similar in size to Rodgers and The Athletic’s Dane Brugler wrote that he is a “strong-armed passer who can efficiently deliver from various arm slots without sacrificing velocity. He can make any throw he wants and isn’t shy about testing quickly expiring windows.” Nussmeier’s father, Doug, is a long-time college and NFL coach who worked under new Steelers head coach McCarthy when the two were in Dallas.
Vikings: JJ McCarthy, Joe Flacco and Anthony Richardson
This looks like an underwhelming outcome on paper considering all the buzz coming out of Indy regarding the Vikings’ interest in options such as Murray, Smith and Cousins, among others. But the reality is: Minnesota is invested in at least trying to make it work with McCarthy, and the idea is that the Vikings are bringing in legitimate competition for him this offseason, not that they are finding his replacement.
Murray is possible here, especially since he becomes a free agent next week, but that would be a clear sign that they’ve given up on McCarthy. There was a sense from people I talked to at the combine that Cousins and the Vikings are unlikely to reunite, though it can’t be ruled out entirely. As mentioned above, I’m not sure Smith breaks free either — though if he does, he’d be my pick. I see the Vikings throwing a couple things at the wall to see what sticks. Derek Carr would be an interesting option, too, but it would be hard to believe he’d want to join the Vikings if it meant “competing” for a starting job.
Flacco makes some sense as a fallback option. He showed last season in Cincinnati that he’s still capable of leading an offense: He threw for 13 touchdowns and four interceptions in nine games. He’s a good veteran presence to have in any quarterback room, especially one with two young quarterbacks, and he’s looking for an opportunity to at least compete to start — which he’d get in Minnesota. Also, according to The Athletic’s Alec Lewis, Flacco was “very much in play” for Minnesota last season before it settled on Carson Wentz — who shouldn’t be ruled out entirely as an option either, by the way.
As for Richardson: His physical and athletic talents are tantalizing even if there’s plenty to be concerned about, particularly his struggles to complete passes at a consistent rate in the NFL, and that time he took himself out of a game because he was tired. Still, there’s not really any downside to adding him to the room considering a trade shouldn’t cost much, and it gives O’Connell a quarterback with tools to develop. There was also, of course, that viral moment O’Connell and Richardson shared in 2024 where O’Connell told him: “You’re a bad dude. And you’re gonna play a long time in this league. Go to work every day. Good things will happen for you. I still believe in you.”
(As an aside: I have gotten the Vikings correct in back-to-back seasons. I predicted Sam Darnold in 2024 and Wentz last year so… [shrug emoji])
On McKee, Bagent and more
• There was a lot of buzz coming out of Indy about Tanner McKee and Tyson Bagent as potential trade targets, but I get the sense that the Eagles and Bears, respectively, are asking for more than you’d think for each of them.
• Someone among the top candidates has to be the odd man out, and in this exercise that was Cousins. If he doesn’t land in Minnesota, I’m not really sure where the best path to a starting job would be for him unless the Dolphins like him as a stopgap. Cleveland doesn’t make sense, and the Jets aren’t interested. Maybe he waits it out to see when some team’s quarterback gets injured and desperation sets in.
• Carr wants to return to play, but I don’t know where exactly the best landing spot is — and it doesn’t sound like the Saints are getting much interest in the way of trade phone calls yet. They hold his rights if he does unretire, and he also has a no-trade clause.
• As for Ty Simpson, the consensus No. 2 quarterback in this class: I’m predicting that he lands with the Rams as Matthew Stafford’s eventual replacement.
• The Chiefs might need a backup to start for them early in the season. My early bet would be Marcus Mariota or Flacco, though maybe Cousins is an option here.
• Who will be the next highly-drafted quarterback to land in Kyle Shanahan’s QB school after Darnold and Jones? Here’s one that I could see: Bills backup Mitchell Trubisky, set to hit free agency. Tagovailoa would be an intriguing one, too.
