The sport’s international juggernauts are not messing around
It will be difficult for the 2026 World Baseball Classic to live up to the 2023 edition. That tournament was a lightning strike. It culminated in a matchup that felt scripted: Shohei Ohtani, the sport’s most transcendent star, staring down Mike Trout, his then–Angels teammate and one of the best players of the 21st century. Ohtani struck Trout out, and Japan won the championship over the United States. But the larger takeaway wasn’t just who won. It was that high-stakes elimination-game baseball is the zenith of sporting drama.
There’s every reason to believe that this year’s Classic, which begins on Wednesday night, can extend the sport’s momentum from last October, when a thrilling postseason and a historic World Series pulled baseball back to the center of the national conversation. The field is loaded with talent; MLB All-Stars and top prospects dot nearly every roster, from the three favored juggernauts (the U.S., Dominican Republic, and Japan) to the emerging contenders and long-shot underdogs. And with games in Miami, Houston, Tokyo, and, for the first time since 2013, Puerto Rico, this tournament remains the loudest expression of baseball’s global heartbeat.
Baseball’s ethos has always centered on rhythm and endurance. The local team becomes the soundtrack of summer, unfolding nightly across a six-month grind. But that consistency can dull urgency. Contenders pace themselves for October. Rebuilding clubs pivot toward the future by Memorial Day. The true sickos may be locked into the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues, but for most fans, the stretch between spring training and Opening Day can feel never-ending. The World Baseball Classic compresses all of that waiting into something immediate. It takes a sport built on patience and forces it to sprint.
On the heels of ice hockey’s dramatic finish at the Olympic Games, and with international sporting pride freshly reignited, baseball has an opportunity to prove that 2023 was the beginning of a durable and repeatable tradition. The last time the baseball world came together for this event, it had been six years since the previous tournament. In 2023, the WBC still carried questions about what the competition could be and whether players would fully buy in. That uncertainty is gone now. While the 2023 WBC benefited from novelty, this one will benefit from reputation and history. Can the U.S. avenge its 2023 loss? Does the Dominican Republic have the best WBC lineup of all time? And which underdog countries have enough talent to surprise us? Let’s break down the six most intriguing story lines heading into this year’s tournament.
Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper before an exhibition game between Team USA and the San Francisco Giants on March 3
Rob Tringali/WBCI/MLB Photos via Getty Images
The U.S. has its dream team.
After coming up just short in 2023, the United States is not messing around this year. The Americans enter the WBC as the oddsmakers’ favorite, having assembled the most talented pitching staff they’ve ever had at a WBC. Merrill Kelly started the final in 2023. And while he’s a perfectly good starting pitcher in MLB, he’s nowhere near the ace-level starters who will feature in this year’s rotation.
The Giants’ Logan Webb will start in the Americans’ opener against Brazil. Two-time AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is set to make one lone start against Great Britain before returning to the Tigers, so he will not factor into the business end of this tournament. But Team USA has more aces up its sleeve: Its third game, against Mexico, will be started by Pirates phenom Paul Skenes. In the bullpen, David Bednar, Griffin Jax, and Mason Miller anchor a group with real swing-and-miss depth. In the WBC format, starters are limited, and bullpens decide outcomes. This is the first American roster built specifically for the math of this tournament.
On offense, the Americans also added three-time AL MVP Aaron Judge, two-time NL MVP Bryce Harper, history-making catcher (and MVP runner-up) Cal Raleigh, and reliable veteran Alex Bregman to the heart of the order. While Raleigh hadn’t yet broken out and Harper was sidelined by an injury in 2023, Judge’s commitment to playing in this event after declining an invite last time represents a seismic shift in how elite American players view the WBC. Would Judge be here if the last tournament hadn’t been so undeniably awesome? Would he be here if the Americans hadn’t lost in the final?
The Americans have also complemented their veteran star power with young spark plugs in left fielder Roman Anthony and center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, two of the most exciting young players in MLB. It’s hard to poke any holes in the loaded Team USA. But after the pool play ends, a single-elimination tournament has a way of producing some wonky results.
The champs will try a new formula.
Japan has won three of the five WBCs played in history. It took home the trophy in 2006, 2009, and 2023 and made at least the semifinal in the 2013 and 2017 editions. This year, it’s the heavy favorite to win Group C, which includes Australia, Czechia, South Korea, and Chinese Taipei and will be played at the Tokyo Dome. Mark your calendar for Japan’s rematch against Czechia—of all the fun moments from the 2023 WBC, few were more memorable than Czech electrician Ondřej Satoria striking out Ohtani. (Satoria is back on the Czech roster in 2026.)
But Japan’s road to a repeat will be difficult. The Japanese pitching staff isn’t nearly as deep this year, as Roki Sasaki, Yu Darvish, and Ohtani will not pitch. However, World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto is back following a stellar 2023 performance and one of the most incredible World Series pitching displays in history, when he tossed 17.2 innings with a 1.02 ERA and 15 strikeouts. He’ll join veteran arms Yusei Kikuchi and Tomoyuki Sugano to anchor Japan’s rotation.
If Japan wins Group C as expected, it’ll face off against the runner-up from Group D in the quarterfinal. That’s likely to be either the Dominican Republic or Venezuela, setting up a clash of two of the top four teams in the first knockout round. Japan has plenty of returning firepower in the lineup to help its repeat bid, but the lack of pitching will make it difficult. Japan has historically mastered this format through depth and precision, but this is the first Classic it’s entering without pitching superiority.
Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto during the exhibition game between the Hanshin Tigers and Japan on March 3
Getty Images
Kazuma Okamoto and Munetaka Murakami take the world stage.
Japan’s pitching may be depleted, but on the offensive side, it has two hitters who will make their MLB debuts later this month. Okamoto and Murakami both shone with crucial hits in the 2023 WBC playoff rounds, but there will be added pressure now that they’re poised to be MLB regulars this season. Okamoto, 29, signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays worth $60 million. He’s expected to be the everyday third baseman for Toronto as the Blue Jays attempt to fill the production void after Bo Bichette’s departure in free agency. Murakami, 26, inked a two-year deal with the White Sox worth $34 million. He’s a polarizing player followed by concerns that his high swing-and-miss rates in Japan will lead to strikeout issues in MLB. Murakami had a walk-off double in the semifinal three years ago and has been on MLB radars since, but this is the first time Okamoto and Murakami will be thrust into the spotlight since signing with MLB teams.
The D.R.’s loaded lineup is out for revenge.
The Dominican Republic isn’t entering this tournament as the favorite, but it may have the most to prove after a disappointing 2023 showing. Placed into the most difficult group, along with Venezuela and Puerto Rico, that year, the Dominicans lost twice in group play and failed to advance to the knockout stage.
This year, no team can match the depth of the Dominican lineup. Here’s its projected depth chart, along with each player’s OPS in the 2025 MLB season:
C: Agustin Ramirez, .701
1B: Vlad Guerrero Jr., .848
2B: Ketel Marte, .893
SS: Geraldo Perdomo, .851
3B: Manny Machado, .795
LF: Juan Soto, .921
CF: Julio Rodriguez, .798
RF: Fernando Tatis Jr., .814
DH: Junior Caminero, .846
Six of the nine projected starters were MLB All-Stars in 2025. Two of the three who weren’t (Perdomo and Soto) were second and ninth, respectively, in fWAR in the National League by year’s end. This lineup is unrelenting, has pop at every position, and is well-rounded.
However, you could have said the exact same thing about the lineup three years ago. And it managed just three total runs in its losses to Venezuela and Puerto Rico. The Dominican Republic lost those two games because its bats went cold and its starters—Sandy Alcantara and Johnny Cueto—failed to deliver. Alcantara and Phillies ace Cristopher Sánchez will anchor the rotation in 2026, but the bullpen is considerably short on lockdown relievers now that closer Jhoan Duran has declined to participate in the tournament. It has a lot of relievers with great stuff but inconsistent command. Albert Pujols is the new manager for the Dominican Republic. He’s been a manager in the Dominican baseball league since retiring from MLB. If there’s anyone who knows how to wrangle a group of superstars, maybe it’s the national baseball icon.
Members of Team Venezuela before a game against the Houston Astros on March 3
Lawrence Brown/MLB Photos via Getty Images
Venezuela needs its stars to align.
Venezuela will be in the same group as the Dominican Republic for the second consecutive WBC, and the two teams will conclude group play in Miami against each other on March 11. Venezuela doesn’t have quite the same level of depth as the three favorites, but it’s not lacking star power at the heart of the lineup. Ronald Acuña Jr. and Jackson Chourio are as dynamic as any players in the entire competition, both William and Willson Contreras are established, high-quality MLB regulars, and Salvador Perez and Eugenio Suarez are sluggers who can change any game with one swing of the bat.
But the Classic rarely rewards offense alone. With Pablo López and Jesús Luzardo out, Venezuela’s pitching staff may struggle to survive the bullpen-heavy grind of elimination baseball. However, you wouldn’t ever doubt Ranger Suarez in a big game (he has a career 1.48 postseason ERA), even if the pitching behind him is just a little too thin to put Venezuela among the top contenders.
Mexico and Italy slug it out for one (likely) Cinderella bid.
Mexico was the underdog story of the 2023 WBC, upsetting the United States in group play, beating Puerto Rico in the quarterfinals, and coming ever so close to beating Japan in the semifinals. Eventually, the bullpen blew a two-run lead in the final two innings, and Mexico’s Randy Arozarena–fueled Cinderella run came up just short of a spot in the final. Arozarena is back for Mexico, and the team will also have Jarren Duran, Jonathan Aranda, and Alejandro Kirk to help bolster its lineup. Mexico has considerably less pitching on paper than it did three years ago and has a very competitive challenger in its group that will be looking to return to the knockout round.
Italy reached the quarterfinals in 2023 after escaping the group of parity in second place. Like Mexico, the Italians eventually lost to Japan, but they are now paired up with the Americans and Mexicans in a competitive Group B in Houston. Whoever finishes in second place of this group is likely to avoid the top four favorites (the U.S., Japan, the Dominican Republic, and Venezuela) in the quarterfinals, based on how the bracket sets up, which positions either Italy or Mexico to potentially make a deep run. The Italians, now managed by Francisco Cervelli, embraced a youth movement to build out their 2026 roster. Royals slugger Vinnie Pasquantino anchors the lineup, but they’ve added top prospects Kyle Teel, Dante Nori, Jac Caglianone, and second-year Marlins outfielder Jakob Marsee to the squad.
Italy will play Mexico in the final game of Group B play on March 11 and has Aaron Nola lined up to debut for the matchup. That game could well decide which team advances.
Josh Naylor bats during a game between Team Canada and the Toronto Blue Jays on March 3
Grace Hoppel/MLB Photos via Getty Images
Group A is a land of opportunity.
Canada is the only country to have appeared in all six WBC events and failed to advance past the first round in any of them. The Canadians have been matched up in the same pool as the United States in every previous edition of the tournament and have often been paired with Mexico, too. This year, the schedule makers have presented Canada with its best opportunity yet to advance to the knockout round: Team Canada is in Group A with Puerto Rico, Panama, Cuba, and Colombia. Oddsmakers have Canada as the second favorite to advance (behind Puerto Rico) in its group.
The Canucks won’t have Freddie Freeman this year, but they’re still anchored offensively by MLB regulars Josh Naylor, Bo Naylor, Otto Lopez, and Tyler O’Neill. Throw in Marlins prospect Owen Caissie and Athletics defensive outfield wizard Denzel Clarke, and the Canadians have an opportunity to make history in this tournament.
On paper, Puerto Rico still has the best roster of the Group A contenders, but it’s considerably weaker now that Francisco Lindor has to sit out after hamate surgery and Carlos Correa was unable to secure insurance to play—despite Bad Bunny’s best efforts to help Correa cover the risk. The team brought in Nolan Arenado to anchor the infield at third base, but the rest of the position player corps is unproven. The infield and bullpen were clear strengths in 2023, and both groups look considerably weaker in 2026. Edwin Diaz is once again pitching for his country, despite suffering a knee injury while celebrating a WBC victory in 2023. And while Fernando Cruz joins him at the back end of the bullpen, the rest of the staff lacks the top-end stuff we saw dazzle in 2023.
If you’re going to see a major shock at the top of any group, it’s probably going to be Puerto Rico underperforming and opening the door for Colombia, Panama, or Cuba, who all have a handful of MLB players ready to push for an upset.
The margins for this tournament are thinner than for any other event in baseball. The pitch count limits to protect starting pitchers’ arms force strategy and managerial decision-making to the forefront. That volatility, combined with full buy-in from the players and incredible passion from fans, is what has turned the tournament into one of the world’s most compelling sporting events.
For two weeks, baseball abandons its usual patience. And if the last Classic proved anything, it’s that when the sport moves this quickly, memorable things happen.
Anthony Dabbundo
Anthony Dabbundo is a sports betting writer and podcast host featured on The Ringer Gambling Show, mostly concentrating on the NFL and soccer (he’s a tortured Spurs supporter). Plus, he’s a massive Phillies fan and can be heard talking baseball on The Ringer’s Philly Special. Also: Go Orange.
