2026 BNP Paribas Open: Bellucci [94th] vs. Diallo [38th] Prediction, Odds and Match Preview

Gabriel Diallo (No. 38) will face Mattia Bellucci (No. 94) in the Round of 128 at the BNP Paribas Open on Wednesday, March 4.

Diallo is the favorite (-125) to get to the Round of 64 compared to the underdog Bellucci (-102).

Tennis odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Odds updated Wednesday at 2:36 PM ET. For a full list of sports betting odds, access USA TODAY Sports Betting Scores Odds Hub.

Mattia Bellucci vs. Gabriel Diallo matchup info

• Tournament: BNP Paribas Open
• Round: Round of 128
• Date: Wednesday, March 4
• Court Surface: Hard

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Bellucci vs. Diallo Prediction

Based on the implied probility from the moneyline, Bellucci has a 55.6% to win.

Bellucci vs. Diallo Betting Odds

• Bellucci’s odds to win match: -102
• Diallo’s odds to win match: -125

Bellucci vs. Diallo matchup performance & stats

• In 16 tournaments on hard courts over the past year, Bellucci has gone 7-16.
• In terms of serve/return winning percentages on hard courts over the past year, Bellucci has won 70.8% of his games on serve and 19.8% on return.
• Including hard courts only, Bellucci has converted 36.6% of his break-point chances (37 of 101) over the past year.
• Bellucci was defeated in the quarterfinals of his most recent tournament (the Abierto Mexicano Telcel presentado por HSBC) 3-6, 4-6 by No. 28-ranked Frances Tiafoe on February 26.
• Diallo has gone 13-19 in 17 tournaments on hard courts over the past year.
• While playing on hard courts, Diallo has a 77.9% winning percentage in service games and an 18.4% winning percentage in return games.
• On hard courts Diallo has won 37.6% of break points (56 out of 149) which ranks 67th.
• In the Delray Beach Open by VITACOST.com, Diallo’s most recent tournament, he played No. 93-ranked Adam Walton in the Round of 32 on February 17 and lost 6-7, 3-6.