Live updates: Strong tornadoes, baseball-size hail target America’s Heartland in storm outbreak

Analysis: Tornado and giant hail potential ramps up as the low-level jet kicks in

The atmosphere is loading the bases this afternoon, and we are tracking a high-stakes weather setup from the Plains to the Great Lakes. If you’re looking at the radar and seeing early rain in Oklahoma and Kansas, don’t let that fool you—that’s just the warm-up act.

The FOX Forecast Center is watching low-level moisture (the muggy air you can feel) streaming north, which is acting like high-octane fuel for the storms expected to ignite later today.

Here is the breakdown of what we are watching at this hour:

Afternoon ignition

By mid-afternoon, we expect individual, powerful storms called supercells to fire up across Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Think of these as the solo performers of the storm world—they are dangerous because they rotate and can stay active for hours.

These storms will bring a major risk for very large hail. We are also watching the low-level jet, a stream of fast-moving air just above the ground that will strengthen after sunset. This adds twist to the atmosphere, meaning any storm that stays individual could produce a strong tornado.

The evening shift

As we head into tonight, those individual supercells will likely clump together into bowing clusters. When you hear meteorologists talk about upscale growth, they just mean the storms are joining forces to form a solid line.

While this sometimes lowers the tornado threat slightly, it trades it for a damaging wind threat. This line of storms is expected to plow through Iowa and Missouri this evening and could hold its strength as it pushes toward Illinois and Wisconsin overnight.

Today’s ‘wild card’ in the South

Down in Oklahoma and Texas, there’s a bit of a “wait and see” game with the dryline—the boundary where dry desert air meets moist Gulf air. If storms can break through the cap (that lid of warm air aloft), they will have massive amounts of energy to work with.

Whether it’s a lone supercell this afternoon or a fast-moving cold front tonight, the message is the same: have your FOX Weather app alerts turned up loud, especially since some of this action will be rolling through while you’re asleep.

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