When the World Baseball Classic ends next week, at least one great Latin American team will be left out of the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles, and possibly as many as two.
The Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and Venezuela — baseball hotbeds that have produced tremendous major league talent — have all advanced to the WBC’s quarterfinals, which begin today in Miami. But more than a championship is at stake.
The ensuing results will also determine two of the six participants in the 2028 Olympics games, and those will be the only spots available to teams from the “Americas” region. Four of the remaining clubs in the WBC, half the field, are fighting for the two bids: not only the Dominican, Puerto Rico and Venezuela, but Canada as well. As the Olympics’ host country in 2028, the U.S. has automatic entry.
“We know what we have on the line,” said Yadier Molina, manager of Team Puerto Rico.
The WBC has grown in fanfare since its introduction 20 years ago, but the 2028 Olympics could be particularly special for the sport. Major League Baseball and the players’ union are trying to work out a deal that would allow big leaguers to play in the Olympics en masse for the first time ever. That has given these Olympics extra weight.
“That’s our main goal actually right now,” Team Venezuela manager Omar Lopez said this week of qualifying for the Olympics. “Then the second one is win the whole (WBC). If we have to get to the finals to win or to get to the finals to be in the Olympics, we have to do it. But we might get to the semifinals and we’re in the Olympics, that’s the main goal.”
After the WBC, the three remaining Olympic spots will be awarded down the road through two tournaments. No Americas teams will be eligible.
The ratcheted-up stakes have not been a central part of MLB’s promotion for the WBC, which could be in part because the qualifying process will create disappointment for some in the sport when notable teams are left out. MLB and the Players Association declined comment.
Cuba, for example, has already been eliminated from the 2028 Olympics by virtue of its performance in the WBC. The same is true for Mexico, which would have been a great draw in L.A.
But there also might not have been a better qualifying structure realistically available. Decision-makers believe the league and the union did as well as they could in a situation where two other organizations, the World Baseball Softball Confederation, which is the Olympic-recognized governing body of baseball, and the International Olympic Committee both have considerable sway.
For all the power the commissioner’s office at MLB has amassed stateside, it doesn’t control the game internationally.
“The IOC has their own criteria as well, so it’s just trying to tick the many boxes in terms of making it fit into the Olympic Games criteria,” said WBSC spokesperson Richard Baker.
The Olympic charter requires “continental representation,” Baker said, giving different geographical regions chances to qualify.
That some top teams from the Americas won’t make it shows the quality of the teams participating, Baker said.
“The Americas has three out of the six, including the U.S.,” Baker said. “Our hands are a little bit tied in that regard.”
How the qualifying process was determined
Over the winter, MLB, the Players Association and the WBSC negotiated the qualifying structure for the 2028 Olympics in a three-way negotiation. Teams were informed of the outcome roughly a month prior to the WBC.
Initially, the WBSC proposed having just one “Americas” spot determined by the WBC, with an additional spot for the region slated for another competition. The players’ union, in particular, felt that would be a poor choice, because the WBC is the only international tourney that includes major leaguers, a source said.
Were teams from the Americas region, such as the Dominican Republic, tasked with qualifying in a tournament other than the WBC, they would have played without many of their stars.
“I’m very happy that the qualifying process has been done in this event because that means we can use MLB players, big-league players, and the competitiveness is obviously better,” said Aracelis León, president of the Venezuelan baseball federation. “It’s a better chance for the teams to have great matches and try to qualify for the Olympics.”
Games between the Dominican Republic and Venezuela have taken on additional importance. (Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
There’s a flipside for teams from other geographic regions that have done well in the WBC. Team Italy, which made it to the final eight, doesn’t have the added benefit of also qualifying for the Olympics via the WBC, and when it competes later, it won’t have major-league players on its roster.
One team from Asia and one team from either Europe or Oceania will make the Olympics via a quadrennial tournament WBSC holds in November 2027 called the Premier12. Then there will be a last-chance tournament for one additional team out of either Europe, Asia, Africa or Oceania.
Creating additional tournaments could potentially overload players, Baker said.
Top leagues in Asia do send their players to the Premier12. Why don’t MLB teams do the same?
The answer lies in something that’s already been a hot topic during this WBC: insurance. Big-league teams don’t want to risk injury to their best players to begin with, and players are often worn out when the Premier12 is held, a season of play already behind them. But even if big leaguers wanted to go and their teams were on board, the cost for insurance would likely be prohibitive.
Other geographic areas will also not be able to send some of their best teams because of the size of the small Olympics field. Japan is not the only baseball powerhouse in Asia: Korea and Taiwan have produced top-level MLB talent as well. But at most, two of those three teams will be able to go to Los Angeles.
If baseball officials had their way, the Olympics would include more teams. Six is the same number of spots that were available for the 2021 summer games played in Tokyo, the last time baseball was played at the Olympics. Baseball was not part of the 2024 program in Paris.
“I would love for there to be eight spots in the Olympics,” said León. “But in baseball, the delegation, there’s a lot of people. That limits the amount of teams that may participate because the delegation is very big.”
It’s unclear how much capacity at the Olympic Village matters when it comes to baseball. If MLB and the union do reach an agreement on sending big leaguers to the 2028 Olympics as expected, it might call for players to have housing separate from the village.
Part of what holds baseball back from more Olympics teams is its status as an invited sport, rather than a permanent one. Ahead of the 2032 summer games in Brisbane, Australia, the WBSC is trying to lobby the IOC for permanent status, which the sport lost after the 2008 games in Beijing.
“It’s one of our goals of the international governing body to have baseball and softball as part of the permanent sports program for the Olympic games,” Baker said. “At the moment, we have to lobby for each Olympic games.”
The final four
The four remaining non-U.S. Americas teams contending for the two Olympic spots will be ranked based on the furthest stage of advancement in the WBC.
If a tiebreaker is necessary between teams that are eliminated at the same stage, the first method is overall winning percentage within the tournament. So the Dominican Republic (4-0) enters the quarterfinals with an edge over Canada, Puerto Rico and Venezuela (all 3-1). Head-to-head record, when applicable, is the second tiebreaker. In the event of a three-team tie, teams will be ranked based on the fewest runs allowed divided by outs recorded.
Canada’s head-to-head win over Puerto Rico earlier in the WBC only applies if there’s a tie to be broken between those two teams.
But the easiest way to ensure an Olympics berth, of course, is to win the tournament outright.
“Every time we have a chance to play in the Olympics, you have to do your best as a manager, and the players will do their best to have that opportunity,” said Albert Pujols, manager of the Dominican Republic. “It’s only five or six days left, and we want to be champions.”
With contributions from The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly and Maria Torres
