The men’s NCAA Tournament was rather chalky a year ago — and not just because all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four for just the second time in history. March was missing much its madness from the jump, with just 13 outright underdog wins over the course of the entire tournament, which tied for the fewest in the big dance since it expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
It’s a small sample size, but fans are bracing for more of the same in the world of NIL bidding wars and the transfer portal. The best mid-major players mostly all move up to high-major programs, which make the rich richer and the poor poorer from a talent perspective. NIL money has also led potential NBA draft picks to return to school instead of going pro, which again makes the sport’s best teams even better year over year.
We don’t yet know if the 2026 tournament will be as chalky as last year’s, though. Two No. 1 seeds — Duke and Michigan — are both dealing with late-season injuries. And another No. 1 seed (Florida) lost by 17 points in its last game. So, let’s broaden our scope and examine which teams not on the top seed line should be taken seriously as title contenders. Or, at the very least, real threats to make it to the Final Four.
Here are the non-No. 1 seeds with the best odds (per DraftKings*) to cut down those nets in Indianapolis:
1. Houston
The Cougars have been one of the best programs in college basketball in recent years, with three Sweet 16s, one Elite 8, one Final Four and a title game appearance in the past five years. Three of Kelvin Sampson’s current starters started in last year’s national championship game; they know what it takes to get there. Guard Kingston Flemings is a sure-fire lottery pick in the upcoming NBA draft. This team has talent — and, of course, a top-five defense as we’ve come to expect from Sampson’s program. And, assuming the Cougars make it to the second weekend, they’ll get to play Sweet 16/Elite 8 games in Houston. The Cougs absolutely can make a deep run once again.
2. Iowa State
The Cyclones have an insanely high ceiling, as we saw in nonconference play when they beat Purdue and St. John’s and then in Big 12 play in back-to-back wins over Kansas and Houston. Iowa State took Arizona to the brink in the Big 12 tournament semifinals and sure looked the part of a title contender, even in a losing effort. Their path is something to consider, too. Their No. 1 seed is Michigan, which has struggled at times since it lost backup guard L.J. Cason for the season, and Virginia is the lowest-ranked No. 3 seed (and perhaps overseeded, depending on who you ask). The time could be ripe for the program’s first Elite 8 run since 2000.
3. Purdue
The Boilermakers cruised to a Big Ten tournament title, with convincing wins over Northwestern, Nebraska, UCLA and top-seeded Michigan all in consecutive days in Chicago. The run reminded us why this team was ranked No. 1 in the nation in the preseason; it’s a veteran-laden group that can beat you inside and out. The tournament title bumped Purdue up from the No. 3 seed line to No. 2 (which bumped Michigan State down a seed line) and convinced quite a few fans to believe in the Boilers again. Matt Painter has shaken off the reputation of the early exit in the NCAA Tournament — and he reached the national championship game with Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn, who all still are a part of the program and in starring roles. One cause for concern: Purdue lost four of six games prior to the Big Ten tournament. Is it possible that the Boilermakers figured something out in Chicago? Or could they revert to their late-February inconsistent selves?
4. UConn
It’s hard to count out Dan Hurley’s group, even if the last time we saw them was a 20-point beatdown at the hands of St. John’s in the Big East tournament championship game. And the loss to Marquette at the end of the regular season wasn’t long ago, either. How will the Huskies respond? They’ve still got an elite defense and an offense with five players averaging double figures. Plus, Hurley certainly has had great success in NCAA Tournaments past. Getting out of the Big East might be just what the doctor ordered for UConn.
5. Michigan State
The Spartans are a popular pick to come out of the East region for those concerned about Duke’s injury issues. Michigan State got bumped from the No. 2 seed line by Purdue after the Boilermakers’ run through the Big Ten tournament, and the top-seeded No. 3 seed led by a coach whose name is synonymous with March surely is one to keep an eye on. The Spartans are physical and ferocious defensively, and they’re elite rebounders (on both the offensive and defensive ends). Jeremy Fears is the kind of point guard who can carry his team through this tournament, especially with a coaching staff known for its game prep and prowess on short turnarounds.
6. Arkansas
John Calipari has coached some of the best point guards in recent college basketball history, and you’ve got to add Darius Acuff to the list. He’s simply unbelievable (and putting up historic numbers). Acuff can take over any game at any time, as evidenced by his performances in the SEC Tournament — where he averaged 30.3 points and 7.7 assists per game. Pair him with Meleek Thomas, and you’ve got a backcourt that can put the team on its back en route to a deep March run. But the Razorbacks’ region is filled with formidable frontcourts that could pose problems down the line.
7. Kansas
We have no idea which version of Kansas is going to show up in the NCAA Tournament, and it’s quite possible that Bill Self doesn’t know, either. Darryn Peterson is projected to be the first pick of the upcoming NBA draft, yet he missed 11 games and parts of other games due to multiple injuries and cramping. Will he or will he not play became one of the biggest (and most prevalent) questions of the season, and even though he averaged nearly 32 minutes per game over the Jayhawks’ final seven contests, he didn’t play particularly well. This team has been elite defensively all year, but its chemistry and offensive production understandably have fluctuated with so much uncertainty in the starting lineup. This is a high-variance team that — at its best — can beat the very best teams in the country (like Arizona). But we just have no idea what we’re going to get out of these Jayhawks in a challenging East region.
8. Gonzaga
Unsurprisingly, Mark Few has the Zags in a strong position heading into the NCAA Tournament. They won the West Coast Conference tournament title in their final season in the league and shared the regular-season crown with Saint Mary’s. Gonzaga has one of the nation’s most efficient defenses and a walking double-double in Graham Ike. It’s possible, if the Zags advance deep into the tournament, that they’ll be able to get Braden Huff back at some point — which certainly would change the ceiling for this group — but even without Huff at the start, they’re looking at favorable geography. Gonzaga’s potential path to the Final Four begins in Portland and would send them to San Jose for the second weekend if they advance. That’s about as good as you can draw it up, especially for a No. 3 seed.
*DraftKings odds as of Monday, March 16 at 6 p.m. ET.
