The 2026 Aces Project. MLB insiders rank starting pitchers: Who’s ‘just a guy’ and who’s No. 1?
For a brief interlude this spring, the two best pitchers in the world wore the same uniform. It was a coup for Team USA to recruit Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal to participate in the World Baseball Classic. Skubal did not stick around for long. But for that moment in time, the Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander and the Detroit Tigers left-hander shared a clubhouse and a purpose.
As the 2026 baseball season approaches, there is little dissension about Skubal and Skenes’ collective place atop the pitching hierarchy. But there is plenty of room for debate about just about everyone else. Which is why we have returned with our annual exercise in trying to answer an age-old question: Who is an ace?
For the past seven years, The Athletic has been surveying experts around the game about this. Once again we convened a panel of 20, with expertise in scouting, player development and analytics. The executives, scouts and analysts we consulted were granted anonymity in order to offer opinions. Each member of the panel filled out a survey featuring 90 pitchers. The list included the top 50 in FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement in 2024, plus 40 others we thought merited consideration.
For each player, the panelist provided a scouting grade, from a No. 1 pitcher to a No. 5. This is the present-day grade on these pitchers: Who they are right now. If a respondent wanted to denote that the pitcher could one day become a No. 1, the grade included an asterisk, classifying status as an “applicant.”
The grading system is also straightforward. A No. 1 grade nets five points, a No. 2 grade nets four, No. 3 nets three, No. 4 nets two and No. 5 nets one. An asterisk adds a half point to the score. We culled the list down to a top 50, split into five tiers:
Tier 1 (100) — The Inner Circle: The unanimous No. 1s.
Tier 2 (99.5 to 90) — Aces: The pitchers you can trust all regular season and again in October.
Tier 3 (89.5 to 80) — The Doorstep Knockers: The pitchers who might one day call themselves aces.
Tier 4 (79.5 to 60) — No. 2s and No. 3s: Those with lower ceilings, but still elevated floors. It should be noted — these guys are awesome at baseball.
Tier 5 (59.5 and below) — No. 4s and No. 5s: Everyone else. The players talented enough to reach and stick in the major leagues, but still a level below the elite.
As always, the specter of injury haunts this list. To make things easier on our panel, we do not ask them to rate pitchers returning from major surgery. For that reason, you will not see 2024 American League Cy Young award winner Gerrit Cole, Arizona Diamondbacks righty Corbin Burnes or Philadelphia Phillies stalwart Zack Wheeler on this list. If Cole and Wheeler make it back in their usual form in 2026, suffice it to say they will be included next year.
With that in mind, let’s try to answer the question that changes each spring: Who are baseball’s aces?
Honorable Mention
The two Hall of Famers
Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Rating: 41
Age: 43
2025 stats: 4-11, 3.85 ERA, 152 IP, 8.1 K/9, 3.85 FIP
2025 rating: 49
Max Scherzer, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Rating: 31
Age: 41
2025 stats: 5-5, 5.19 ERA, 85 IP, 8.7 K/9, 4.99 FIP
2025 rating: 53
Clayton Kershaw has retired. Zack Greinke has walked away from the game, perhaps hoping to finally get to the bottom of the guacamole prices at Chipotle. But Verlander and Scherzer remain, still raging against the dying of the light, still offering glimpses of the ability that will deliver them to Cooperstown five years after they decide to hang up their spikes.
The $54 Million Man from Japan
Tatsuya Imai, RHP, Houston Astros
Rating: 48
Age: 27
2025 stats (in NPB): 10-5, 1.92 ERA, 163.2 IP, 9.8 K/9.
2025 rating: Not ranked.
Imai found a softer market than some anticipate after being posted by the Seibu Lions this winter. One scout suggested the Astros got a “potential steal” in a two-year deal with Imai, who can wield a wicked slider. Others worried how his fastball would play in the majors, and wondered if he might end up as a reliever.
The Diamondbacks Duo
Zac Gallen, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Rating: 48
Age: 30
2025 stats: 13-15, 4.83 ERA, 192 IP, 8.2 K/9, 4.50 FIP
2025 rating: 76
Merrill Kelly, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Rating: 48
Age: 37
2025 stats: 12-9, 3.52 ERA, 184 IP, 8.2 K/9, 3.76 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
Last season looked like the end of the road for Gallen and Kelly in Arizona. Both were pending free agents. The team even traded away Kelly at the deadline. But both found their way back to the Diamondbacks on short-term deals. If Arizona falters again this season, both could be in the mix on the trading block once more.
Tier 5 (59.5 and below) — No. 4s and No. 5s
Tanner Bibee could be primed for a bounce-back season.(Ken Blaze / Imagn Images)
49 (tie). Tanner Bibee, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
Rating: 51
Age: 27
2025 stats: 12-11, 4.24 ERA, 182.1 IP, 8 K/9, 4.34 FIP
2025 rating: 65
Bibee was part of a trend that will come up fairly often on this year’s list: many of the top young pitchers heading into 2025 suffered some growing pains. Bibee gave up more contact last season and experienced some command troubles. But his floor still puts him in the middle of a good rotation. “He took a step backwards last year,” one scout said. “But he still provides a lot of quality innings, and the stuff and control aren’t too far off from prior years.”
49 (tie). Matthew Boyd, LHP, Chicago Cubs
Rating: 51
Age: 35
2025 stats: 14-8, 3.21 ERA, 179.2 IP, 7.7 K/9, 3.65 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
Boyd made his first All-Star team in 2025, rewarding the Cubs for their faith in giving him a two-year, $29 million contract after an intriguing eight-start campaign with Cleveland in 2024. “Good for a solid, back-end arm,” one executive said. But many of our panelists were pessimistic about Boyd putting together a repeat. “Very good 2025,” one scout said, “but that was his first healthy year since 2020.”
48. Edward Cabrera, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Rating: 53.5
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 27
2025 stats: 8-7, 3.53 ERA, 137.2 IP, 9.8 K/9, 3.83 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
The Cubs placed a large wager on Cabrera’s upside when they dealt prized outfield prospect Owen Caissie to acquire him. Cabrera leveled up in 2025, and has cut his walk rate in half since 2023. Will it last? Several scouts suggested that the Miami Marlins sold high on Cabrera. “Can’t trust the strikes,” one evaluator said.
45. Ryan Pepiot, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Rating: 54
Age: 28
2025 stats: 11-12, 3.86 ERA, 167.2 IP, 9 K/9, 4.36 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
Here is a fun little note: Since being traded for Tyler Glasnow heading into 2024, Pepiot has logged 297.2 innings with a 3.75 ERA, while Glasnow has thrown 224.1 with a 3.37 ERA. Pepiot has been worth 4.1 bWAR, while Glasnow rated at 3.8. But Glasnow possesses the sort of arsenal capable of disarming lineups in October, which is why the Dodgers were willing to part with a valuable mid-rotation type like Pepiot.
45. Nick Pivetta, RHP, San Diego Padres
Rating: 54
Age: 33
2025 stats: 13-5, 2.87 ERA, 181.2 IP, 9.4 K/9, 3.49 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
Pivetta broke out in 2025 after four middling seasons with Boston. His stuff played up and he benefited from exchanging Fenway Park for Petco Park as his home base. Even so, one talent evaluator put it best: “Do it again, I dare you.”
45. Trevor Rogers, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
Rating: 54
Ace votes: 1
Age: 28
2025 stats: 9-3, 1.81 ERA, 109.2 IP, 8.5 K/9, 2.82 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
Heading in 2022, Rogers ranked No. 21 on our list, ahead of Logan Webb, Luis Castillo and Kevin Gausman. He spent the next several years in the wilderness. A variety of arm ailments dogged him, and he flopped when Baltimore gave up a big package of prospects to add Rogers for the 2024 postseason push. But Rogers resurfaced last summer with, as one scout put it, an “extremely impressive finish.” There was a healthy debate among our panelists about whether those 18 starts for Baltimore were a fluke. “It’s deceptive and funky, but the stuff was whatever,” one evaluator said.
44. Gavin Williams, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
Rating: 54.5
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 26
2025 stats: 12-5, 3.06 ERA, 167.2 IP, 9.3 K/9, 4.39 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
Williams established himself as Cleveland’s top starter as the Guardians roared back from the depths of the American League Central for an improbable division crown last year. Williams posted a 2.18 ERA in the second half.
43. Sonny Gray, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Rating: 55
Age: 36
2025 stats: 14-8, 4.28 ERA, 180.2 IP, 10 K/9, 3.39 FIP
2025 rating: 61
It will be interesting to see how Gray, who had thrived in the National League Central and American League Central since 2019, handles the transition back to the rough-and-tumble American League East. The Red Sox would like him to be the guy he has been for the better half of a decade: “A steady No. 3 who takes the ball,” as one executive said.
42. Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Rating: 56.5
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 33
2025 stats: 7-2, 3.20 ERA, 64.2 IP, 11.6 K/9, 3.17 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
A lat injury ended Woodruff’s 2025 campaign on a sour note, leaving him unable to aid Milwaukee in the postseason. But he avoided any structural damage to his surgically-repaired right shoulder. The Brewers had enough confidence in his health to make him the $22 million qualifying offer. Woodruff accepted with the intention of using 2026 as a springboard into a long-term deal this coming winter. “Might win the Cy Young,” one scout said. “Who knows?”
40 (tie). Cade Horton, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Rating: 57
Applicant votes: 2
Age: 24
2025 stats: 11-4, 2.67 ERA, 118 IP, 7.4 K/9, 3.58 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
Like Woodruff, Horton was not available for his team in October, as he was dealing with a broken rib. But there is still plenty of time for the No. 7 overall pick in 2022 to reach his ceiling. “He dominated the league last year,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said earlier this spring. “There (weren’t) many challenges when he was pitching. He did. He was outstanding. Now it’s: Do it again. Do it over a full season.”
40 (tie). Michael King, RHP, San Diego Padres
Rating: 57
Age: 30
2025 stats: 5-3, 3.44 ERA, 73.1 IP, 9.3 K/9, 4.42 FIP
2025 rating: 71
Heading into 2025, King wanted to prove he could stay healthy as a starter, with a potential nine-figure contract awaiting him in free agency. Well, King could not accomplish that first goal. He hurt his shoulder and then he hurt his knee. He made only 15 starts.
Yet in free agency, he still got paid. The Padres brought him back on a three-year, $75 million deal that features opt-outs after the first two seasons. There’s a reason for San Diego sticking with King. When he takes the mound, his stuff plays.
39. Luis Castillo, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Rating: 58
Age: 33
2025 stats: 11-8, 3.54 ERA, 180.2 IP, 8.1 K/9, 3.88 FIP
2025 rating: 72
Two scouts used the same adjective for the veteran from the Dominican Republic: “steady.” Another evaluator called him “the modern-day Livan Hernández. Competent, flashes of brilliance, 180 innings.” The younger members of the Mariners rotation get more attention and more love in this poll these days, but Castillo was more reliable than most of them last season.
37 (tie). MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Texas Rangers
Rating: 58.5
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 27
2025 stats: 5-15, 4.17 ERA, 159.2 IP, 10.4 K/9, 3.74 FIP
2025 rating: 58
Just who, exactly, did the Rangers acquire this winter? Will they see the MacKenzie Gore from the first half, the All-Star with the 3.02 ERA? Or will they get the guy from the second half, who posted a 6.75 ERA for a Washington club with no hope and little to play for? “The Rangers are hoping the Nationals’ previous regime didn’t know what they were doing,” one executive said. “Maybe they are right.” Another scout suggested the problem might fall on Gore’s shoulders, rather than the shoulders of his employers. In his career, Gore has tends to run into trouble in the dog days of the season. “Maybe Texas can unlock his high upside,” the evaluator said.
37 (tie). Spencer Strider, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Rating: 58.5
Applicant votes: 3
Age: 27
2025 stats: 7-14, 4.45 ERA, 125.1 IP, 9.4 K/9, 4.53 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
The most cursed discourse possible, for any pitcher, is Spring Training Velocity Discourse. It’s never a good sign when reporters are asking about the readings from the radar gun. But that has been what Strider, who looked like an ace in 2022 and 2023 before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2024 for a second time, has been dealing with these past few weeks. The velocity and shape of the heater matters a great deal, because at his peak Strider overpowered hitters with an upper-90s fastball and a hammer of a slider. “Not sure he will ever be the same,” lamented one executive. If Strider does bounce back, another scout maintained, he “needs to regain his early career velo.”
35 (tie). Andrew Abbott, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
Rating: 59
Age: 26
2025 stats: 10-7, 2.87 ERA, 166.1 IP, 8.1 K/9, 3.66 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
There are more Reds to come on this year’s list. Abbott locates his 93-mph fastball with precision. The lack of elite velocity, though, limits his ceiling. “Consistent, but doesn’t dominate hitters,” one scout said. “Would love to see him in a pitcher’s park.” Several evaluators cited the challenges of pitching at Great American Ball Park. Abbott “provides a lot of quality innings due to impressive fastball quality and control,” another scout said.
35 (tie). Carlos Rodón, LHP, New York Yankees
Rating: 59
Age: 33
2025 stats: 18-9, 3.09 ERA, 195.1 IP, 9.4 K/9, 3.78 FIP
2025 rating: 55
After a shaky first season in the Bronx, Rodón has put together two consecutive strong campaigns. He cut down on the home runs and finished sixth in American League Cy Young voting last season. “I felt like he was a binary outcomes pitcher for a while,” one scout said. “So if he settles into a nice, boring, mid-rotation role, that’s great for him.” Yet there are questions lurking about his health. Rodón logged a career-best 195 1/3 innings last season, only to require surgery to remove bone spurs in his left elbow during the winter. He did not face hitters until March.
Tier 4 (79.5 to 60) — No. 2s and No. 3s
Cam Schlittler burst onto the scene last season but has the potential to stick at a high level. (Ishika Samant / Getty Images)
34. Cam Schlittler, RHP, New York Yankees
Rating: 60.5
Applicant votes: 3
Age: 25
2025 stats: 4-3, 2.96 ERA, 73 IP, 10.4 K/9, 3.74 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
Here is where our rating system sometimes goes askew: Is Schlittler, a veteran of 14 big-league starts, really a better pitcher than his teammate Rodón? But what Schlittler displayed during those starts, and during two excellent postseason outings, was enough to impress our panel. Several scouts commended the Yankees for helping Schlittler’s fastball jump from the low 90s to 98 mph in 2025. One evaluator noted that Schlitter’s primary secondary pitch, a curveball, was “more adequate than good.” The fastball was enough to overpower hitters upon a first look in 2025. Can he diversify his arsenal and stay ahead of the competition in 2026?
33. Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Miami Marlins
Rating: 61
Applicant votes: 2
Age: 30
2025 stats: 11-12, 5.36 ERA, 174.2 IP, 7.3 K/9, 4.28 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
Alcantara, the 2022 National League Cy Young award winner, suffered through a miserable 2025 campaign. The industry expected the Marlins to deal him midway through the year, but Miami opted to stick with him — in part because rival clubs lacked interest in a pitcher with a 7.22 ERA.
Alcantara put together a much more effective final 13 starts to the season, tallying a 3.33 ERA and generating much more soft contact. “He really got it rolling in the second half,” one evaluator said.
Our panel was torn on what the future held.
“I wouldn’t bet against Sandy being a top-20 pitcher in 2026,” one scout said.
Countered another evaluator, “Might not be the same again.”
A third split the difference: “Shrug emoji.”
32. Ranger Suárez, LHP, Boston Red Sox
Rating: 62
Age: 30
2025 stats: 12-8, 3.20 ERA, 157.1 IP, 8.6 K/9, 3.21 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
Suárez landed a five-year, $140 million deal with the Boston Red Sox this past winter. In some ways, he is a walking red flag for a long-term commitment. He has never made 30 starts in a season. He tends to log somewhere around 150 innings each year. His two-seamer and four-seamer both hover around 90 mph, and he cannot afford faltering command. But he sure does know how to generate outs. The 2025 season was his best as a full-time starter. Boston is hoping he can fortify its rotation behind top arm Garrett Crochet.
31. Trey Yesavage, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Rating: 63
Applicant votes: 6
Age: 22
2025 stats: 1-0, 3.21 ERA, 14 IP, 10.3 K/9, 2.35 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
Would Yesavage even be included on this list if it weren’t for October? Doubtful. The 2024 first-round pick made three starts for Toronto before the postseason, but put together a handful of excellent performances during the Jays’ run to the World Series. Yesavage confounded the Dodgers with his mix of a 95-mph fastball plus a power slider and splitter thrown from an outrageously high arm slot. “Unique slot and angle that leads to tons of strikeouts,” one scout said. “Ceiling of a No. 1, but will be interesting how he adds to his repertoire, and he has limited career innings.”
30. Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Rating: 64
Ace votes: 1
Applicant votes: 8
Age: 23
2025 stats: 5-3, 4.36 ERA, 66 IP, 11.9 K/9, 3.62 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
Yet another youngster with a small track record and an extremely high ceiling. Misiorowski made the All-Star team after only five starts. Then it seemed like he couldn’t throw a strike again for the rest of the regular season. “The walk rate scares me,” one scout said. Added another evaluator, “Is he going to throw enough strikes?” Misiorowski personifies the scouting term “reliever risk.” He might become a No. 1. And he might spend his career pitching the seventh inning. “He has the stuff,” a third scout said. “Will the command and makeup elevate him to the upper echelon?”
29. Eury Pérez, RHP, Miami Marlins
Rating: 64.5
Applicant votes: 9
Age: 22
2025 stats: 7-6, 4.25 ERA, 95.1 IP, 9.9 K/9, 3.67 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
Youth is on the side of Pérez, who made his way back to the majors last season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. He generated the same movement and 98-mph velocity on his fastball as he did before the procedure. The heater, one scout said, is “an absolute thunderbolt.” Another scout described him as “electric,” with “every chance to become a top-tier dude.” Nearly half of our panel suggested he could develop into a true No. 1. “I’d be shocked if it happened right away, but, yeah, this guy is going to be an ace,” an evaluator said.
28. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Texas Rangers
Rating: 65
Age: 36
2025 stats: 11-3, 1.73 ERA, 130 IP, 8.9 K/9, 2.80 FIP
2025 rating: 60
Eovaldi was in the midst of a remarkable season last year when a series of arm ailments derailed him. He underwent sports hernia surgery after the season. Such is the story of his career. He has neither thrown 200 innings nor won 15 games in a season. But when he takes the mound, he is a fierce presence with excellent results. “Not sure there’s a better competitor on this list,” one scout said. Another scout commended Eovaldi for his ability to regenerate despite persistent health woes. With his fastball velocity on the decline, Eovaldi threw his splitter more often than any other pitch in 2025. “I feel like Eovaldi has been five different pitchers in his career, and him landing on finesse king is just very funny,” the scout said.
26. Dylan Cease, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Rating: 66
Age: 30
2025 stats: 8-12, 4.55 ERA, 168 IP, 11.5 K/9, 3.56 FIP
2025 rating: 86
What to make of Toronto’s $210 million man? “Thought he got a scary amount of money,” one scout said. Another suggested the possibility of Cease’s ceiling obscured the fact that he usually performed closer to his floor. “Strikeouts and stuff outpace results,” the evaluator said. Then again, Cease might be the most reliable pitcher in the sport. Since 2021, he has made more starts than any other pitcher, while striking out 11.3 batters per nine innings. That is why he got paid. It is also why he can be so challenging to watch. “Durable, but the bullpen has to have their spikes on in the 4th,” one scout said.
26. Nick Lodolo, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
Rating: 66
Age: 28
2025 stats: 9-8, 3.33 ERA, 156.2 IP, 9 K/9, 3.81 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
Lodolo put together the best campaign of his young career in 2025. His sidearm delivery creates nightmares, even if left-handed hitters saw him better than right-handed hitters last year. He uses his curveball, changeup and two fastballs about evenly. “Underrated,” one scout said. Maybe not anymore!
25. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Rating: 67
Ace votes: 2
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 32
2025 stats: 4-3, 3.19 ERA, 90.1 IP, 10.6 K/9, 3.75 FIP
2025 rating: 77
At this point, it is doubtful that Dodgers fans really care all that much about Glasnow’s inability to put together a full regular season. Glasnow did what the team paid him for in October. He picked up five outs in relief in Game 1 of the National League Division Series against Philadelphia and spun a gem in Game 4. He out-pitched Jacob Misiorowski in the next round. In the World Series, he pitched out of the bullpen on back-to-back days as the Dodgers snatched a championship away from the Blue Jays. The team could not have won the title without Glasnow.
So why do his persistent health woes irritate our panel so much? Probably because the talent, like Glasnow’s wingspan, is so immense. “Can he make more than 20 starts?” one executive said. A second suggested Glasnow is a better pitcher than many of those ranked ahead of him on this list, but he simply “isn’t available enough.” A third scout offered a devastating critique for anyone who tried to pretend “The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou” was a good flick back in 2004. Glasnow, the evaluator explained, “is like a Wes Anderson movie, for me. People keep telling me he’s elite, but I don’t get it.”
24. Cole Ragans, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Rating: 68.5
Ace votes: 1
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 28
2025 stats: 3-3, 4.67 ERA, 61.2 IP, 14.3 K/9, 2.50 FIP
2025 rating: 86
Heading into 2025, Ragans looked capable of asserting himself as a true No. 1. Then he injured his shoulder in June. In a three-start performance upon his return in September, he didn’t last deep into game, but he was back to missing bats. Given Ragans’ age and prior history of two Tommy John surgeries, any serious injury carries extra weight.
23. Drew Rasmussen, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Rating: 69.5
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 30
2025 stats: 10-5, 2.76 ERA, 150 IP, 7.6 K/9, 3.84 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
Dating back to 2022, only two pitchers in baseball who have logged more than 350 innings have posted a lower ERA than Rasmussen’s 2.78: Tarik Skubal and Blake Snell. Not bad company. But note the qualifier — Rasmussen threw only 369 1/3 frames during that time period; Skubal, as a reference, threw 585 1/3. After making 28 starts with a 2.84 ERA for Tampa Bay in 2022, Rasmussen missed most of the next season while recovering from an internal brace procedure, his third major elbow surgery, having undergone two Tommy John surgeries before becoming a professional. So even though Rasmussen returned to his usual sterling state in 2025 — a career-best 31 starts, a career-high 150 innings, a 2.76 ERA — there is still concern about his long-term prospects. “How much life is left in the elbow?” one scout said.
21. Freddy Peralta, RHP, New York Mets
Rating: 70.5
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 29
2025 stats: 17-6, 2.70 ERA, 176.2 IP, 10.4 K/9, 3.64 FIP
2025 rating: 60
Peralta will spend his platform season on one of the game’s biggest platforms. The Mets acquired him to be the No. 1 starter for a team with championship dreams. Peralta is coming off the best season of his career. He has come a long way from the days of being “Fastball Freddy,” as his changeup ranked as the sixth-most effective in baseball last year, according to Statcast. But he still issues too many walks — 3.4 per nine innings in 2025 — to be considered truly elite, according to most of our panel. Peralta has “dominant stretches, but starts can be short, with high pitch counts keeping him as a No. 2.”
21. Joe Ryan, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Rating: 70.5
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 29
2025 stats: 13-10, 3.42 ERA, 171 IP, 10.2 K/9, 3.74 FIP
2025 rating: 61
Ryan was one of the last Twins standing after last summer’s teardown, and several panelists analyzed him in terms of his value as a trade chip. “Need to see him with a winner,” one scout said. Ryan throws from a three-quarters angle that allows his 93 mph fastball to play up. Playing in the cavernous confines of the American League Central, he can throw that heater half of the time and watch fly balls die in the outfield. How well that approach might play in another division, against tougher competition, is a question that might be answered this July. “He would make a contender better,” another evaluator said. “I don’t know if he would make a contender a lot better.”
19 (tie). George Kirby, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Rating: 70
Ace votes: 2
Applicant votes: 4
Age: 28
2025 stats: 10-8, 4.21 ERA, 126 IP, 9.8 K/9, 3.37 FIP
2025 rating: 82.5
Kirby opened 2025 on the shelf with an injured shoulder, and never really got rolling. His command was less than elite. The underlying metrics suggest he should be fine moving forward, as he struck out batters at a career-high rate, and his FIP was nearly a full run lower than his ERA. But it was still a frustrating season for the talented right-hander.
19 (tie). Nolan McLean, RHP, New York Mets
Rating: 71
Applicant votes: 10
Age: 24
2025 stats: 5-1, 2.06 ERA, 48 IP, 10.7 K/9, 2.97 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
McLean burst out of the pack of Mets prospects in 2025 and pitched his way into a position of prominence on Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. These are often the most challenging, most exciting pitchers for our panelists to grade. At this stage in a player’s development, the ceiling looks unlimited and the floor looks fathoms deep. One scout complimented the athleticism of McLean, who played college football at Oklahoma State before turning full-time to the diamond. Another suggested that McLean might be tipping his sweeper, the most prominent off-speed offering in a six-pitch mix. A third summed up the hope and the hype of a pitcher ranked No. 15 on Keith Law’s prospect list heading into 2026: “Look, I know. This guy might be a reliever. But the stuff that comes out of his hand is good, bro. Trust me, bro.”
17 (tie). Kevin Gausman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Rating: 73
Age: 35
2025 stats: 10-11, 3.59 ERA, 193 IP, 8.8 K/9, 3.41 FIP
2025 rating: 62
Let’s hear it for the veteran from Colorado, who continues to pile up outs as he enters his mid-30s. “Metronome,” one scout called him. “Quality innings eater,” another said. An executive described him as a “steady, mid-rotation starting pitcher in the upper tier of that group.” Maybe this all sounds like damning with faint praise. But there is something admirable, to our panel, about a veteran who steadies into a groove after years of striving. During the past three seasons, Gausman ranks third in innings pitched. “His ERA is in line with a No. 3, but he provides so many more innings that it bumps his role,” a fourth scout said.
17 (tie). Jesús Luzardo, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Rating: 73
Ace votes: 2
Applicant votes: 2
Age: 28
2025 stats: 15-7, 3.92 ERA, 183.2 IP, 10.6 K/9, 2.90 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
The Phillies made a $135 million wager that the pitcher they saw for most of 2025 will still take the mound during the next five seasons. In his first 11 starts, Luzardo tallied a 2.15 ERA and struck out 77 batters in 67 innings. The rest of the season was less kind to him. He spent a good chunk of the summer trying to correct a mechanical glitch that led to him tipping pitches. And there are still significant worries about his health. He has made 32 starts in two of the past three seasons, but missed most of 2024 with a back injury, and dealt with a variety of arm ailments early in his career.
16. Logan Gilbert, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Rating: 74.5
Ace votes: 3
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 28
2025 stats: 6-6, 3.44 ERA, 131 IP, 11.9 K/9, 3.35 FIP
2025 rating: 85.5
Like his teammate George Kirby, Gilbert saw his progress in 2025 stalled by injury. Kirby hurt his shoulder. Gilbert hurt his elbow. When healthy, Gilbert fanned batters at an elevated clip, but did not last as deep into games as he had in 2023 and 2024. Our panelists spoke highly of him, even if they stopped short of suggesting he could become a No. 1. “Might be the most solid No. 3 on this list,” one executive said. Another executive, who described themselves as a “big fan” of Gilbert, pegged him as a “higher-end No. 2.”
14 (tie). Hunter Greene, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Rating: 76
Ace votes: 3
Applicant votes: 6
Age: 26
2025 stats: 7-4, 2.76 ERA, 107.2 IP, 11 K/9, 3.27 FIP
2025 rating: 71.5
Well, it happens every year. We send these surveys out in January and February. Once players report to camp, things go awry for some on our list. Atlanta Braves pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach looked like the most prominent loss after undergoing surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. But then, in the second week of March, Greene announced he needed elbow surgery for a similar reason. The injury matched the tone of our panelists about him: Greene has immense talent, but has yet to put together a complete season of dominance. He won’t be able to do so in 2026, either.
14. (tie). Framber Valdez, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Rating: 76
Ace votes: 2
Age: 32
2025 stats: 13-11, 3.66 ERA, 192 IP, 8.8 K/9, 3.37 FIP
2025 rating: 73.5
After a puzzling conclusion to an otherwise excellent career in Houston, Valdez found a dearth of long-term offers on the market. So he opted for a three-year, $115 million pact with the Tigers that will permit him to test the market again in two seasons. Detroit hopes Valdez will do what he did for the majority of his Astros tenure: generate groundballs with his sinker and curveball, while taking the baseball every fifth day. One executive described Valdez as a “mid-rotation arm with back-end stuff that was paid like a front-line arm.” Got all that?
12 (tie). Blake Snell, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Rating: 76.5
Ace votes: 1
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 33
2025 stats: 5-4, 2.35 ERA, 61.1 IP, 10.6 K/9, 2.69 FIP
2025 rating: 81
Blake Snell is a two-time Cy Young award winner and demonstrated this past October how his elite arsenal plays in the biggest games.
And yet …
“No. 1s don’t let others do the heavy lifting,” one scout said.
Indeed, Snell spent most of last season on the injured list and will begin 2026 in a similar place. The Dodgers have the depth and patience to limit Snell’s usage for the games that matter most, and after winning it all in 2025, you won’t hear anyone complaining. Except, of course, our panelists, who noted Snell’s scattershot command and general unavailability as the reasons why they don’t consider him an ace. “Pitches like a No. 1,” one scout said. “Just doesn’t pitch enough.”
12 (tie). Bryan Woo, RHP Seattle Mariners
Rating: 76.5
Ace votes: 1
Applicant votes: 3
Age: 26
2025 stats: 15-7, 2.94 ERA, 186.2 IP, 9.5 K/9, 3.47 FIP
2025 rating: 64
One fun subplot of this list in recent years has been following where the members of Mariners rotation land on it. Luis Castillo sets the bar as a reliable mid-rotation starter. George Kirby and Logan Gilbert got the love in previous years. But Woo, the youngest of the foursome, leapfrogged to the top of the heap as Kirby and Gilbert dealt with injuries in 2025.
11. Hunter Brown, RHP, Houston Astros
Rating: 79.5
Ace votes: 5
Applicant votes: 3
Age: 27
2025 stats: 12-9, 2.43 ERA, 185.1 IP, 10 K/9, 3.14 FIP
2025 rating: 58.5
Brown leveled up in 2025 because he threw more strikes. Easy game, right? Well, it is when you possess two elite fastballs and a deceptive delivery. Brown represented another developmental success story for Houston, which drafted him in the fifth round out of Wayne State in 2019. If he can put together another season like 2025, he might vault into the top 10 of this list.
Tier 3 (89.5 to 80) — The Doorstep Knockers
Could we be seeing a new version of Jacob deGrom? (Sam Hodde/Getty Images)
9 (tie). Jacob deGrom, RHP, Texas Rangers
Rating: 82
Ace votes: 6
Age: 37
2025 stats: 12-8, 2.97 ERA, 172.2 IP, 9.6 K/9, 3.64 FIP
2025 rating: 81.5
“I am rooting for a future where deGrom turns into a 92-94 mph junkballer,” one scout said, “and pitches forever.”
Did deGrom make that transition in 2025? Not exactly. But after years of throwing as hard as possible and not staying healthy, deGrom dialed back his velocity and made 30 starts for the first time since 2019. Of course, because he is Jacob deGrom, “dialing back his velocity” meant he sat only 97.5 mph. The numbers underneath the hood suggest deGrom experienced some good luck in 2025, as his strikeout rate dipped into single digits for the first time since 2016. “Not the same guy,” one executive said. “And likely to keep trending down.” But some version of deGrom is better than no deGrom at all. “Happy to see him back, and on a Hall of Fame trajectory,” one evaluator said.
9 (tie). Shohei Ohtani, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Rating: 82
Ace votes: 6
Applicant votes: 2
Age: 31
2025 stats: 1-1, 2.87 ERA, 47 IP, 11.9 K/9, 1.90 FIP
2025 rating: Not ranked.
Several of our panelists suggested Ohtani should shift to relief or quit pitching altogether — but that could just be sour grapes after Ohtani returned his second major elbow surgery to perform as a two-way player in 2025. For a guy working his way back from surgery, and spending most of his days as a designated hitter swatting 55 homers, he looked pretty good. “Once in a generation unicorn,” one scout said.
As always, the only thing holding back Ohtani’s performance as a pitcher is his day job as one of the best hitters in baseball. But given all the rhetoric coming out of Dodgers camp this spring about Ohtani’s desire to win a Cy Young award, it will be fascinating to see if Ohtani alters his schedule to prioritize pitching over hitting in 2026.
7 (tie). Chris Sale, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Rating: 82
Ace votes: 8
Age: 36
2025 stats: 7-5, 2.58 ERA, 125.2 IP, 11.8 K/9, 2.67 FIP
2025 rating: 94
Sale has found a second wind as an Atlanta Brave these past two seasons. He finally won a Cy Young award in 2024. He put up his usual excellent numbers in 2025 while missing, as usual, some time due to injury. He looks like a lock for the Hall of Fame when his career ends. Until then, he can be quite effective when he takes the baseball. “I get that he’s old and not always healthy,” one scout said. “But he provides such a funky look, and when he’s on there are few better than him.”
7 (tie). Logan Webb, RHP, San Francisco Giants
Rating: 82
Ace votes: 5
Age: 29
2025 stats: 15-11, 3.22 ERA, 207 IP, 9.7 K/9, 2.60 FIP
2025 rating: 78
Is Logan Webb an ace? Not quite, our panel says. But he is still, as one scout put it, “boring awesome.” He has led the National League in innings in each of the past three seasons. “Innings, innings, innings,” another scout said. “No one does it better year after year.” Webb incorporated a kick changeup in 2025 that brought up his strikeout rate. Because he generates so many grounders, his ERA is always a little reliant on batted-ball luck. But he excels at limiting quality contact, every fifth day, year after year.
6. Max Fried, LHP, New York Yankees
Rating: 87
Ace votes: 7
Age: 32
2025 stats: 19-5, 2.86 ERA, 195.1 IP, 8.7 K/9, 3.07 FIP
2025 rating: 83.5
In his first season as a Yankee, Fried handled the pressure of the Bronx while operating in a vacuum created by Gerrit Cole’s absence. “The question was whether he could do it in New York,” one scout said. “He answered it.” Indeed, Fried excelled at home by posting a 2.37 ERA at Yankee Stadium.
Tier 2 (99.5 to 90) — Aces
Cristopher Sanchez made the leap into ace territory in 2025. (Photo by Caean Couto/Getty Images)
5. Cristopher Sánchez, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Rating: 90
Ace votes: 9
Applicant votes: 2
Age: 29
2025 stats: 13-5, 2.50 ERA, 202 IP, 9.4 K/9, 2.55 FIP
2025 rating: 61.5
Sánchez caused a lot of buzz last spring when his fastball velocity jumped into the mid-90s. He lived up to the hype during the season, bullying hitters with that fastball while mixing in enough changeups and sliders to keep opponents off balance. Anyone who watched him tie Shohei Ohtani into knots during the postseason should be a believer. “I think he’s the best in the game right now,” one executive said. The rest of our panel was a bit more tempered in their praise for Sánchez, but another executive gushed about “buying the breakout.”
4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Rating: 96.5
Ace votes: 16
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 27
2025 stats: 12-8, 2.49 ERA, 173.2 IP, 10.4 K/9, 2.94 FIP
2025 rating: 84.5
How many pitchers in baseball can do what Yamamoto did during last year’s World Series? How many pitchers, really, in baseball history could do it? In Game 1, Yamamoto authored the first complete game in the Fall Classic in a decade. He pitched another gem in Game 6 and then returned a day later to close out the Blue Jays and etch his name forever into Dodgers lore. What separates Yamamoto from his peers is less his stuff than his approach. He shifts shape as the game progresses, so hitters have the experience of facing three or four different versions of the same man. “Creative, dominates in a way different than others,” one executive said. Yamamoto was already perhaps the best pitcher in the history of Nippon Professional Baseball. He would like to add a Cy Young award to a trophy case that already includes a trio of Sawamura Awards and Pacific League MVPs.
3. Garrett Crochet, LHP, Boston Red Sox
Rating: 97
Ace votes: 17
Age: 26
2025 stats: 18-5, 2.59 ERA, 205.1 IP, 11.2 K/9, 2.89 FIP
2025 rating: 90.5
In his first season in Boston, Crochet put it all together. You like strikeouts? Crochet generates ‘em, fanning 31.3 percent of the batters he faced last year, better than everyone except Tarik Skubal. You like quality strikes? Crochet throws ‘em, with a walk rate in the top 10. You like innings? For the first time in his career, Crochet logged ‘em, leading the American League with 205 1/3 frames. His arsenal is explosive and expansive, and he’s just getting started.
Tier 1 (100) — The Inner Circle
Paul Skenes is in a tier of his own. Well, almost. (Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)
1 (tie). Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Rating: 100
Ace votes: 20
Age: 23
2025 stats: 10-10, 1.97 ERA, 187.2 IP, 10.4 K/9, 2.36 FIP
2025 rating: 98.5
With all due respect to Yamamoto and Crochet, we must agree with the executive who told us, “There should be a different category for Skenes and Skubal.” Indeed, there is, and it is the point of this annual exercise. We do these surveys to try to find out who is the best of the best, who are the pitchers upon which a diverse array of evaluators can come to a consensus. Skubal was the only unanimous ace in last year’s poll. This spring he has been joined by Skenes, who followed up a Rookie of the Year campaign in 2024 by becoming the unanimous choice for National League Cy Young award winner in 2025.
1 (tie). Tarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Rating: 100
Ace votes: 20
Age: 29
2025 stats: 13-6, 2.21 ERA, 195.1 IP, 11.1 K/9, 2.45 FIP
2025 rating: 100
“The best in baseball,” one scout said.
“The best there is,” an executive said.
Skenes is younger than Skubal, and his career is still taking shape. But for right now, Skubal is the king of the hill in Major League Baseball. He won another Cy Young award last season. He cut down his walks and collected more strikeouts. The peripherals are just as strong as the traditional stats. If he stays healthy and effective in 2026, he may become the richest free-agent pitcher in baseball history. And for good reason: Skubal is the total package. And that is why he stands atop our list.
