Nate Oats crew had to overcome the loss of guard Aden Holloway and sloppy early play from the Tide — as well as ridiculous officiating from the referees — in the first round of the NCAAM Tournament to top 13-seed Hofstra on Friday afternoon. Despite the issues for Alabama, the 4th seeded Crimson Tide led the entire game and finally took charge with just under 5 minutes to play when they outscored the Pride 19-5 down the stretch to turn a tight game into a 20 point win. Up next for Alabama is a tougher foe in 5th seeded Texas Tech and Bama cannot afford to wait until the last minutes to turn up the heat.
According to the FanDuel sportsbook, the Tide opens up as a -1.5 point favorite over the Red Raiders — a razor-thin margin that could waver between now and Sunday’s game at 8:45pm CT. The over/under is set at 164.5 as of post.
Texas Tech had a similar opening game in the Big Dance as they led the 12-seed Akron by five at the half and by a similar margin with 6:25 remaining before outscoring the Zips 22-7 down the stretch to win by 20.
Tech is also missing a key player. However unlike Holloway, their loss is a consensus second-team All-American in forward JT Toppin who suffered a season-ending injury after tearing his ACL in his right knee in a February game at Arizona State. At the time of his injury, Toppin led his team with 21.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks per game.
Texas Tech would lose that game to the Sun Devils, who did not make the post-season. They would rebound for a blowout win over a bad Kansas State and also-ran Cincinnati, followed by a huge upset of Iowa State — now a 2-seed — on the road. But the good times did not last as the Red Raiders lost their final three games prior to the NCAA Tournament. Those opponents — TCU, BYU, and Iowa State — are all NCAA Tournament participants.
In the three game win streak, the oddsmakers likely had their doubts about Texas Tech without their star player. In the three game setback that followed, the opposite was likely true. The spread and over/under against Akron were shockingly low (unless you are impressed by a team that dominated the MAC, a conference that put only two teams in the Big Dance).
Donovan Atwell and Christian Anderson have stepped up their games in Toppin’s absence, and LeJuan Watts has emerged as a key contributor. But is it enough? Which Texas Tech team will we see on Sunday?
After a show-stopping double overtime win over Arkansas, Alabama defeated poor LSU and MSU teams and then got revenge over Tennessee. Then came a disappointing loss to UGA and a hammering of Auburn. The Tide made an early exit from the SEC Tournament before entering the NCAA Tournament. The Crimson Tide loses some scoring contributions from Holloway, but have other guards capable of stepping up. But will they?
The Tide is still the nation’s top scoring team at 91.7 points per game. The Red Raiders average 80.7 which is 70th highest. Tech allows 72.6 ppg and Bama is at 70.1.
The real determinant seems to be if the Tide can be motivated to play hard and play defense. Sometimes, you never know what you are going to get out of this squad. The hope is that Oats has saved up a good motivation speech for the crimson and white.
The odds could fluctuate between now and Sunday’s tipoff. Check in with FanDuel for updates.
This second round game is set for 8:45pm/9:45pm on Sunday, March 22, and will be broadcast on TBS.
