Updated:
Mar 22, 2026 , 06:48 PM ET
• 4 min read
Hatfield’s prediction: Texas Tech runs away with one against Alabama.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Texas Tech Red Raiders forward Donovan Atwell.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders bring their trademark defense into this clash with the Alabama Crimson Tide in the NCAA Tournament.
My Texas Tech vs. Alabama predictions don’t mince words in their expectations that the Red Raiders will roll over ‘Bama.
Below, my March Madness picks break down why I like Texas Tech to clinch a spot in the Sweet 16 on Sunday, March 22.
Texas Tech vs Alabama prediction
Who will win Texas Tech vs Alabama?
Texas Tech: They put a chokehold on Alabama in transition and will keep them from scoring regularly in the halfcourt. Nate Oats schemes well enough for a long portion of the game, but eventually the damn breaks and Alabama can’t defend well enough on the other end.
Texas Tech vs Alabama best bet: Texas Tech moneyline (-127)
The Texas Tech Red Raiders’ attack-and-kick offense ranks No. 1 in the country. Every drive-and-kick is producing an open look, and Tech has the shooters to make the Alabama Crimson Tide pay all afternoon.
Alabama wants to play in transition, but doing so without Aden Holloway forces the team to rely even more on transition plays, limiting their halfcourt options. The Red Raiders’ top-tier transition defense, which allows just 1 point per possession, could be a deciding factor.
Given Alabama’s shorthanded roster, I don’t think they can score enough in the halfcourt to keep pace.
COVERS INTEL: Alabama is yet again a team with one of the highest 3-point rates in the country (fifth nationally), while Texas Tech allows the 47th-lowest 3-point rate in college basketball.
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Texas Tech vs Alabama same-game parlay
One reason Texas Tech has one of the best attack-and-kick offenses in the country is that they have one of the best 3-point shooters in the land.
Donovan Atwell enters this game shooting over 45% from deep on high volume. Alabama has struggled against spray-outs all season, so this pairing fits nicely.
Texas Tech vs Alabama SGP
- Texas Tech moneyline
- Donovan Atwell Over 3.5 threes
Our Big Dance SGP: Anderson Gets in the Act
With both teams capable of putting up points, my projection of 163 signaled value on the Under.
I paired that with Christian Anderson exceeding his assists total, as he should get plenty of opportunities on attack-and-kick threes, tying back to Tech’s offensive strengths.
Texas Tech vs Alabama SGP
- Donovan Atwell Over 3.5 threes
- Christian Anderson Over 7.5 assists
- Texas Tech -1
- Under 165
Texas Tech vs Alabama odds
- Spread: Texas Tech -1 | Alabama +1
- Moneyline: Texas Tech -120 | Alabama +100
- Over/Under: Over 165 | Under 165
Texas Tech vs Alabama betting trend to know
Alabama has hit the 1H Under in 11 of its last 17 games (+4.05 Units / 21% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Alabama.
How to watch Texas Tech vs Alabama
Location
Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
Date
Sunday, March 22, 2026
Tip-off
9:45 p.m. ET
TV
TBS
Texas Tech vs Alabama key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Chris has always had a passion for three things: solving problems, sports, and writing. It’s no wonder then that he found himself attracted to the sports betting industry. You can find Chris betting every day. Whether it’s shot prop markets in Champions League Soccer qualifiers or NBA Summer League, he has no offseason. As an EV+ bettor, he especially values the insight gained through a data-driven approach.
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