2026 Miami Open presented by Itau: Sabalenka [1st] vs. Baptiste [45th] Prediction, Odds and Match Preview

In the quarterfinals at the Miami Open presented by Itau on Wednesday, Aryna Sabalenka (ranked No. 1) takes on Hailey Baptiste (No. 45).

Sabalenka is the favorite against Baptiste in this match, with -1205 odds against the the underdog’s +725.

Tennis odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Odds updated Wednesday at 6:35 PM ET. For a full list of sports betting odds, access USA TODAY Sports Betting Scores Odds Hub.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Hailey Baptiste matchup info

• Tournament: Miami Open presented by Itau
• Round: Quarterfinal
• Date: Wednesday, March 25
• Court Surface: Hard

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Sabalenka vs. Baptiste Prediction

Based on the implied probility from the moneyline, Sabalenka has a 92.3% to win.

Sabalenka vs. Baptiste Betting Odds

• Sabalenka’s odds to win match: -1205
• Baptiste’s odds to win match: +725
• Sabalenka’s odds to win tournament: +135
• Baptiste’s odds to win tournament: +10000

Sabalenka vs. Baptiste matchup performance & stats

• Sabalenka is 37-4 on hard courts over the past year, with four tournament titles.
• On hard courts over the past year, Sabalenka has won 83.6% of her service games and 38.6% of her return games.
• On hard courts over the past 12 months, Sabalenka has converted 149 of 328 break points (45.4%).
• In her last tournament, the BNP Paribas Open, Sabalenka advanced all the way to the final and then beat No. 3-ranked Elena Rybakina, 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 on March 15.
• Baptiste is 11-16 in 15 tournaments on hard courts over the past year.
• Baptiste has 222 wins in 323 service games on hard courts (68.7%), and 86 wins in 311 return games (27.7%).
• On hard courts Baptiste is 90th in break point win percentage (40.5%) after going 83-for-205.
• In her previous tournament (the BNP Paribas Open) on March 7, Baptiste squared off against Rybakina in the Round of 64 and lost 6-7, 6-2, 2-6.