With no more perfect brackets heading into the Sweet Sixteen, we must reassess where the tournament currently stands. No. 11-seed VCU took out No. 6-seed UNC, and No. 12-seed High Point ousted No. 5-seed Wisconsin in the most notable first-round upsets. The Midwest Region stayed relatively clean, outside of No. 9-seed Saint Louis obliterating No. 8-seed Georgia.
In the Round of 32, No.-9 seed Iowa dethroned No. 1-seed Florida to snag a Sweet Sixteen spot for the first time since 1999. Meanwhile, No. 11-seed Texas made it three straight tournament wins by defeating No. 3-seed Gonzaga. Once again, however, the Midwest was mostly chalk, with the exception of No. 6-seed Tennessee taking down No. 3-seed Virginia.
Will the trend of higher seeds winning continue? For the No. 1-seed Michigan Wolverines, four games stand between them and the National Championship trophy. Here are some predictions for the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight games in the Midwest Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
No. 1 Michigan vs No. 4 Alabama
Alabama won with ease in its first two games, taking down Hofstra by 20 and Texas Tech by 25. On Sunday, the Tide buried 19 three-pointers and scored 90 points for the second straight game, with two players making at least five triples against Texas Tech. Alabama is second nationally in three-point makes (12.6 per game) and No. 1 in scoring offense (91.7 points per game).
That’s the sort of team that should worry Michigan fans. If the Tide finds a way to make a ton of threes on Friday night in Chicago, it could spell trouble, especially because the Wolverines allowed 24 three-pointers in two games last week.
Nonetheless, Michigan is a 10.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel, and based on the season-long sample size, the Wolverines should still be able to win this one handedly.
Michigan scored at least 95 points in its first two games of the tournament, and there are plenty of things to like about this matchup for the Wolverines. Alabama ranks outside the top-300 in offensive rebounds allowed and turnovers forced. Alabama’s two-point defense will also be tested — the Tide ranked in the top-60 during the season (48.3 percent allowed), but hasn’t faced many teams as proficient at two-point offense as Michigan.
The Wolverines also shot better than 46 percent from three-point range in both of their tournament wins. And finally, while the loss of guard Aden Holloway didn’t hurt Alabama in its first two matchups, Michigan plays an eight-man rotation that wears defenses out, making it a tough matchup for a team that is down a contributor like Holloway.
If the Wolverines keep playing the way they have, there isn’t a team in this tournament that will beat them. I’m taking Michigan to win this one and advance to the Elite Eight.
No. 2 Iowa State vs No. 6 Tennessee
Tennessee knocked off a strong Virginia squad last weekend, reaching the Sweet Sixteen for a fourth straight season. The Vols have been volatile this year, going 11-7 in SEC play and losing to Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals. Their shooting has been a weakness, averaging 79.4 points per game (79th nationally) and shooting just 51 percent from the field (150th).
However, what Tennessee lacks in shooting, it makes up for on the boards. The Vols are on pace to be the third-best offensive rebounding team this century, per KenPom, recording double-digit offensive boards in 33 of their 34 games. They rank second in rebounding margin (12.9) and offensive rebounds per game (15.94). Even when shots aren’t falling, Tennessee finds ways to keep possessions alive.
That said, Iowa State shouldn’t have much trouble here.The Cyclones are a 3.5-point favorite against Tennessee, according to FanDuel, and they can very well win by more. Led by Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country. Momcilovic converted at a staggering 49.6 percent from deep this season, and he scored 20 points against Kentucky on Sunday.
The Cyclones also rank fifth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and its biggest strength is its ability to force turnovers, doing so on 22.5 percent of their opponents possessions. Opponents also shoot less than 50 percent from the field against Iowa State. I’ll take Iowa State to win here.
No. 1 Michigan vs No. 2 Iowa State
This matchup has the makings of an all-time game. What Iowa State does well — shooting threes and forcing turnovers — happens to be where Michigan is most vulnerable. What Michigan does well — attacking the paint and pushing pace — is where Iowa State is weakest. This game will come down to three-point shooting, tempo control and ball security.
If Michigan stays disciplined and matches the Cyclones from deep, it advances to the Final Four. If the Wolverines struggle like they did against Purdue, turning it over and failing to convert inside, Iowa State has the tools to pull the upset.
Michigan has found ways to win all season, even when things aren’t clicking. The Wolverines hold the size advantage, have shown they can guard the three when locked in defensively, and have been one of the tournament’s most efficient offenses through two rounds. Michigan will win this game and advance to the Final Four in Indianapolis.
