To no surprise, The Athletic’s MLB staff has the Los Angeles Dodgers winning the NL West, the NL pennant and the World Series. But what about the rest of MLB’s divisions, its major awards and everything else, such as most losses or biggest disappointment?
Welcome to our season predictions. Over the next six months, we’ll be revisiting these predictions at multiple intervals (Memorial Day, the All-Star break and September). The questions will stay the same, but the answers will undoubtedly evolve.
Here’s our expectations for the 2026 MLB season, with expert analysis and critique from MLB senior writers Andy McCullough and Tim Britton, along with senior editor Johnny Flores Jr.
Flores Jr: Given the moves made and expectations each of the three leading teams has, these are no-brainers. I am particularly intrigued by our staff’s belief that the Brewers could still win the NL Central, even after trading away ace Freddy Peralta and watching the Cubs have a “Plan A” offseason.
Britton: Yeah, Andy can tell Pat Murphy he’s not even the only Athletic reporter who believes in that team.
McCullough: It would have been amusing if we had conducted this poll sometime before Christmas, when Mets fans were still smarting over the departures of Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo. David Stearns’ January shopping spree – signing Bo Bichette, trading for Freddy Peralta and Luis Robert Jr. – put the Mets back into the driver’s seat in the division. If Zack Wheeler returns to good health in April, as the Phillies expect, the reigning division champs may have something to say about that.
Britton: You feel pretty good about that top five, and then Atlanta’s brutal spring opens the door for that final spot. I voted for Atlanta last week, but I think I’d take San Diego this week.
Flores: The race for that final Wild Card spot will be one of the best things to watch in the second half of the season. I voted for Pittsburgh, but I don’t think you can go wrong with any of those teams. Well, maybe the Rockies.
McCullough: I’m with Tim. The chalk feels right on the first five picks, although maybe not necessarily in that order, but from there, it looks like a free-for-all for the final Wild Card spot. The prediction models love the Braves despite the ongoing collapse of their starting rotation.
McCullough: Zero love for the Guardians, who have won the Central in three of the past four seasons. Probably because this offseason it seems like they spent zero dollars to improve the offense.
Flores: Our staff evidently values different things when it comes to the AL East (continuity, free-agency splashes and trades) and it shows in the votes. As the season goes on, we’ll see which ship our staff jumps to. I voted Yankees, but I’m willing to be swayed by any argument.
Britton: I think the Yankees are the best regular-season team in that division, which isn’t the same as thinking they’re the best team come October.
McCullough: Interesting quirk in that the Yankees finished second in the American League East poll, but fifth here. I think they have the highest floor of any American League team. There was a lot of relatively reasonable kvetching from Yankees fans about Brian Cashman reconstructing a simulacra of last year’s group, but that group led the American League in run differential. It’s a good club. The Yankees just need to, you know, play better when it matters most.
Flores: Much like the NL side, you can’t go wrong with any of those picks. It is telling how far the Astros have fallen that only five of our voters believe they will nab a postseason spot. Once a shoo-in for the AL West, Houston isn’t even seen as a wild-card team in its current form. I think its pitching staff is a lot better than it’s being given credit for, and the trade for Mike Burrows, in particular, is a curtain-raiser. It’s just a matter of the offense being healthy and also putting it together.
Britton: The unbalanced schedule makes it difficult but not impossible for one division to claim all three wild cards. I wonder whether the Orioles would stack up better – and maybe pass Kansas City – if not for playing in the AL East.
McCullough: Maybe I’m being a hater, but I’m a little less optimistic about Seattle than our panelists. I do think they will win a weakened American League West, but the back half of that lineup projects to be quite pedestrian.
Flores: The Dodgers are the World Series favorites until they’re not. Even if they didn’t add Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz (newsflash: they did), the Dodgers likely still would’ve been No. 1 among voters.
Britton: The Dodgers have enough of a talent surplus that they don’t need to prioritize the regular season and can take it easy with some of their more injury-prone stars. But they still need those guys to be healthy at the right time. They were last October, and they still played a pair of really tight postseason series.
In the AL, I think the Red Sox have the highest ceiling of any team there. The roster is a little mismatched, but there’s some really interesting young talent there, led by Roman Anthony, that can take off.
McCullough: Despite all their talent and postseason pedigree, the Dodgers are not a lock to lead the sport in victories. The organization views the regular season as a canvas upon which to prepare for October. That’s why it will afford a lengthy runaway to Roki Sasaki despite a disastrous spring. That’s why it won’t rush Blake Snell back from the injured list. Hey, that strategy worked out last season, didn’t it?
Even with the addition of Kyle Tucker, the Dodgers are an older club, one smart enough not to over-exert itself during the dog days. The talent will carry the Dodgers to the postseason, but I don’t think they care much about what happens beforehand.
Flores: We’ve not seen a 100-game winner since the 2023 season, when there were three (Orioles, Braves, Dodgers). It’s just too hard to be that consistent, and I don’t think there are many teams other than Los Angeles equipped to do that. And as Andy correctly pointed out, the regular season is a bit meaningless to the organization. I do think we will see multiple 100-loss clubs this season. Will it match the four in 2023? I think so!
Britton: It’s interesting that the number of 100-win teams has come back to earth even as the number of 100-loss teams has remained high. Colorado seems like a shoo-in again this season, the Nats are ripe for a necessary step back under a new regime, and the Angels have flirted with but not yet crossed the 100-loss threshold. The Cardinals haven’t lost more than 95 games in a century.
McCullough: Two words: Nick Kurtz. If that guy can put together a full season that mirrors his abbreviated rookie campaign, the American League West might be in some trouble. I don’t think the Athletics have a pitching staff capable of overcoming the elements in West Sacramento, but they have enough offense to make a random three-game series hellish for any opponent. The Marlins gave off a similar vibe last season. The team played hard for manager Clayton McCullough, and that energy carried the Marlins to 79 wins despite talent suggesting they should have performed worse.
Flores: The projection models love the Braves. Our staff doesn’t. Pitching is the name of the game, and Atlanta is starting off on the back foot. It doesn’t help, then, that the Braves are relying on several players to have “bounce back,” or as close to historic norm seasons as possible. This version of the Braves just screams “disappointment.”
Britton: This time last year, I wondered if the Marlins would win six games against the top three teams in their division; instead, they became one of the top three teams in the division, and their seven wins against the Mets alone cost New York the postseason. It’s not wild to think Miami can outpace Atlanta again.
McCullough: Jim Crane once dismissed his general manager a few days after winning the World Series. Not sure he’s interested in hearing how Joe Espada kept the club together after so many injuries in 2025. Without a contract beyond this season, Espada is the obvious choice in this unfortunate category.
Flores: The Angels are a lot of things, but I do think they give Kurt Suzuki, who’s operating on a one-year deal, the benefit of a full season. His counterpart in Houston, however, has until the All-Star Game to prove to owner Jim Crane that the Astros are a playoff team.
Britton: The top three picks here are three of the four guys entering this year without a guarantee beyond it. (The Mets’ Carlos Mendoza is the other.) Suzuki makes sense as a first-year manager here because of the unique one-year deal. I’m surprised to see Skip Schumaker and Craig Stammen mentioned.
McCullough: Maybe this is the year Bobby Witt Jr. surpasses Aaron Judge as the best player in the American League. Witt is entering his age-26 season. Last year he took a slight step back from his outlandish 2024 production and still put together a 7.1 bWAR season with a 136 OPS+. The young man is a beast.
Flores: Aaron Judge has been playing at such an otherworldly level that whoever passes him in the AL MVP race has to be as historic, if not more. If there’s one person who can do it, it’s Bobby Witt Jr. His production at the plate and in the field is just as otherworldly. Those new fences at Kauffman Stadium should help him post a few more counting stats.
Britton: How mediocre does Ohtani have to be to make the NL MVP a race again? Even if he has subpar seasons in each of his roles, he’s still probably more valuable than anyone else can be.
Flores: It must be equal parts frustrating and fascinating to be an NL pitcher in the era of Paul Skenes. On one hand, what he’s able to do with the baseball every fifth day is truly the stuff of video games. On the other hand, beating him for the Cy Young Award is easier said than done. If Stephen Strasburg was the “prince that was promised,” then Skenes is the king that’s arrived.
Britton: That said, Cristopher Sánchez made that more competitive than Skenes’ unanimous win suggested. If Skenes takes a tiny step back — you know, an ERA into the twos — Sánchez could be the guy.
McCullough: Garrett Crochet threw more innings with a higher strikeout rate than Tarik Skubal last year. I don’t think Skubal will go quietly, though, especially as he builds his platform season heading into free agency.
McCullough: My earnest hope is that Pat Murphy and Stephen Vogt win these awards every single year. At least until the prediction models and pundits like us realize we genuinely have no idea what we’re talking about.
Flores: Manager of the Year continues to befuddle. If the Orioles and Pirates do better than they did last year, then our staff believes Don Kelly and Craig Albernaz will win the award. That sounds about right.
Britton: Does expecting someone to win Manager of the Year make it more difficult for them to do so? Since the award is so heavily based on expectations? In either case, Dave Roberts has to win again at some point, doesn’t he?
McCullough: This is a delightful crop of rookies. You like nasty stuff? Meet Nolan McLean. You like seeing guys swing long bombs away? Wait until you see Munetaka Murakami barrel up a ball. It will be interesting to see how the Royals deploy Carter Jensen, a promising hitter who can also spell veteran Salvador Perez behind the plate.
Britton: I was hoping we’d see McLean facing Griffin this opening weekend with the Pirates in New York. I’d have Griffin as the frontrunner if he were starting the season in the majors, but with him down, I went with McLean.
Flores: Munetaka Murakami being a ROY candidate feels like cheating, but I do think his transition to major-league pitching will be one of the season’s defining storylines. If he resembles who he was in 2022 with the Yakult Swallows (56 home runs), or at least comes close, then it’s hard to pick against him.
Flores: These predictions will look extra hilarious if somehow Mason Miller is traded away to an AL team at the deadline.
McCullough: I forgot the BBWAA created this award. I hope someone we’ve never heard of wins it.
Britton: Did I make sure we included this question just for Andy? Maybe…
