While few players get the Bell Centre going like Arber Xhekaj can, it hasn’t been a banner season for the 25-year-old defenceman.
Xhekaj’s story is amazing: undrafted as a teen when he was eligible for the Ontario Hockey League Priority Selection Draft in 2017, he worked his way up only to go undrafted in the NHL draft both in 2020 and 2021. Yet his play earned him an invite to the Montreal Canadiens’ development camp in 2021, where he impressed and promptly signed an entry-level deal.
His last year of Junior hockey included a trade to his hometown Hamilton Bulldogs, an OHL championship, and being named to the Memorial Cup All-Star Team. Jumping straight to the NHL for a rebuilding Canadiens team the following season, Xhekaj was part of a rookie-heavy defensive group on a bad team. They struggled, but progress was visible throughout the season.
The following season, Xhekaj spent some time in the American Hockey League to work on his offence, and saw his NHL ice time increase by about a shift per game, including a minute per game of power-play time. Since then, the additions of Lane Hutson, Noah Dobson, and Alexandre Carrier to the Habs’ lineup has limited the opportunities available for Xhekaj to earn minutes with the big club.
The result has been Xhekaj becoming almost an everyday player, starting in 84% of the Habs’ games this season and last, but his ice time has fallen precipitously.
Last season, Xhekaj was on the ice nearly 23% of the time while the Canadiens were playing even-strength hockey, and nearly 15% of the time while they were short-handed. This season, those numbers have dropped to 17.6%, and 4.5%. Last season, Xhekaj missed 12 games out of 82, and this season with 13 games left, he’s already sat for 14. No matter how you slice it, Xhekaj hasn’t had the opportunities this season that he had the previous three.
Playing just over 11 minutes per game this season after averaging over 15 minutes per game the previous three seasons, Xhekaj is in a difficult situation in more than one way.
On your left
Whether you’re a big fan of Xhekaj or not, there’s a reality he’s facing with the Canadiens that’s impossible to ignore. At the NHL level, there are five defencemen in Hutson, Dobson, Mike Matheson, Kaiden Guhle, and Carrier who are superior overall players. All of them bring more versatility in their games than Xhekaj does, which means there’s only one spot in the lineup for him to fight for.
As a left-handed shot, Xhekaj is behind Hutson, Matheson, and Guhle, meaning that for him to play either he or someone else will need to play on their off-side. Jayden Struble, Xhekaj’s current main competition, also faces this hurdle.
Having to earn your spot nightly with just 11 minutes of even-strength ice time is difficult enough, but it’s not just Struble that Xhekaj has to compete with. Behind Xhekaj on the depth chart for now, Adam Engström is having an exemplary season with the Laval Rocket in the AHL.
Engström has the same issue as Xhekaj does with being a left-handed shot, but David Reinbacher does not. Taken fifth overall in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, Reinbacher is also having a very strong season with Laval. A right-handed shot with high draft pedigree, the Canadiens are invested in Reinbacher as a big part of the future. Personally, I believe the Habs are invested in Arber Xhekaj as well, but the priority will be Reinbacher once he’s NHL ready.
With the Canadiens adding defencemen at the top of the lineup two seasons in a row, and talented defencemen catching up behind him, Xhekaj (and Struble) faces a quickly closing window of opportunity to earn a regular spot. The timing couldn’t be worse either, with his contract expiring this summer as an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent.
This Canadiens management group appears to be far more measured and careful with how they treat players than the Bergevin regime, but arbitration has a tendency to hurt feelings and damage relationships between players and teams. Add to that that Arber does not have a great argument based on performance should he elect to go to arbitration, which is tough for him heading into what should have been a decent payday this summer.
Struble and Carrier are locked up at reasonable dollars for another season. That’s a lot of pressure pushing in on Arber from many different angles.
The value of a unicorn
Xhekaj is a rare player. That is not up for debate. There are very few players in the NHL who can play a regular shift while dolling out the physical punishment and intimidation that he can. There is something cathartic about an opponent trying to engage in some rough stuff only to be tossed aside by the Xhekhammer.
The physicality that Xhekaj brings to the lineup matters, and on a team like the Canadiens who are one of the smaller and lighter teams in the NHL overall, it’s very tempting to conclude that they need him around to keep opponents honest.
However, in order for that physicality to matter, the part where Xhekaj can take a regular shift without hurting the team has to remain. It’s been a bit since the coaching staff has felt like he can do that, based on his deployment.
Over the past two seasons, the Canadiens have performed worse in shot-attempt, shot, scoring-chance, high-danger-chance, goal, and expected-goal differential while Xhekaj is on the ice than when he’s off of it. That’s not the entire story for him, but it’s worth pointing out that Struble’s on-ice numbers are much better over that time.
But looking at only on-ice shot-based differentials can lead us to some incorrect conclusions when two players are in vastly different situations, so let’s examine some other individual inputs. In relatively equal ice time at even strength since the 2024-25 season, Xhekaj leads Struble in some interesting individual metrics.
Xhekaj blocks 3.41 shots against per 60 minutes at even strength compared to 2.88 for Struble. Pro-rated for the amount of shot attempts against per 60 minutes, Xhekaj blocks 5.81% of the shot attempts against while he’s on the ice, compared to 5.30% for Struble. Not a huge gap, but advantage Arber.
With 3.41 giveaways per 60 minutes, Xhekaj is a bit safer with the puck that Struble is, who gives the puck away 4.04 times per 60 minutes, a team high.
While Struble is also a very physical defenceman, Xhekaj produces nearly 50% more hits per 60 minutes with 12.21 compared to Struble’s 8.67, and Xhekaj takes more hits too; 6.17 per 60 minutes compared to 5.71 for Struble. Unsurprisingly, Xhekaj is very physically involved.
Penalties are an issue for Xhekaj though. He has taken 22 more minor penalties over the last two seasons than he’s drawn, but Struble has also taken 13 more minor penalties than he’s drawn. The raw numbers make it look pretty bad for Xhekaj there, but when you look from a different angle and contrast taken versus drawn penalties as a percentage, things change. Xhekaj draws a measly 31% of the penalties he’s involved in, but Struble only draws 24%. While the raw differential might look worse, Xhekaj also draws more power plays, so you could argue that he’s actually a better bet for penalty differential, even if he takes far too many penalties.
Struble starts almost 61% of his non-neutral-zone faceoffs in the offensive zone, while Xhekaj starts just under 51% of his in the offensive zone.
Looking at this season alone, Xhekaj has better defensive numbers than Struble does, the Habs actually give up fewer goals and expected goals while Xhekaj is on the ice than when he’s off it, but the team struggles to produce offence with him on the ice.
Teammate impacts
When comparing Xhekaj and Struble over the last two seasons, you really have to adjust for the defence partners they’ve played with. For example, a whopping 46.8% of Struble’s five-on-five ice time has been spent with Lane Hutson, a privilege Xhekaj has been afforded just 11.6% of the time. Xhekaj’s most common partner over the last two seasons is still David Savard, who he has shared the ice with 32.4% of the time.
That is a significant gap in teammate quality right off the hop, and if we remove each player’s most common partner, the difference between the two players in on-ice expected goal differential nearly disappears. In total, Struble has a 51.3% on-ice expected goal differential compared to Xhekaj’s 45.0%, and while Xhekaj stays at 45% without Savard, Struble without Hutson drops to 47%. Still, Xhekaj isn’t coming out ahead.
While Struble and Hutson had some great moments last season, this season that chemistry hasn’t come back. Struble and Xhekaj are the only defencemen on the Canadiens to drag Hutson below a 50% share of expected goals; in fact they’re the only two to drag him under 55%.
Lack of opportunity to play with the Canadiens’ best players has definitely hurt Xhekaj’s numbers over the last two seasons, but the bigger issue is that he hasn’t managed to stay above water with any partner over that time period, with his best partner, ironically, being Struble.
Neither player seems to work with Carrier, while Carrier rocks expected goals rates of 55.4% with Hutson, 52.0% with Mike Matheson, and 56.0% with Kaiden Guhle. That puts the Canadiens in a situation where the guy they want to anchor their third pair doesn’t function well with either of the other two potential third-pairing defencemen. Carrier works well with multiple other partners, so ultimately it’s up to Xhekaj or Struble to force the issue.
Finding an edge
For Xhekaj right now, obviously he needs to find a way to not hinder the offence so much, but on top of that he needs to look at what kind of minutes the Canadiens need from him. His physicality is great, but the Canadiens struggle most in two areas: holding leads and killing penalties. Those are both areas where being better defensively matters a lot.
Considering how much Martin St-Louis and his coaching staff depend on their top three defenders, any opportunity to spell Lane Hutson, Noah Dobson, and Mike Matheson heading into the playoffs would do wonders for the team’s chances.
Specifically, if Xhekaj can take minutes on the penalty kill away from Carrier or Matheson, who have really struggled in that situation, it will help the team at even strength, too. In fact, in a tiny sample size, Xhekaj actually played quite well short-handed this season, allowing just 7.09 expected goals against per 60 minutes compared to all of Matheson, Carrier, and Guhle being over 10.
The trouble is, in Xhekaj’s short stints short-handed this season, the goalies behind him have stopped just 75% of the shots. Expanding to include the previous couple of seasons, Xhekaj on the PK has not consistently caused such high-quality chances against that his goaltenders have a poor save percentage, but he also hasn’t maintained as strong a defensive impact as his measly 15 minutes this season either. With that said, Xhekaj’s defensive impacts at even strength this year are also improved, so I think there may be something there.
If Xhekaj wants to build a strong claim to a roster spot in the near future, it’s going to require him making an impact, but it will also require some faith from the coaching staff. Eleven minutes per night is not enough to thrive for a defenceman, and he hasn’t earned the minutes at five-on-five. He needs a legitimate shot on the penalty kill; whether he has to go to the coaching staff or they have to challenge him is an internal dynamic, that I can’t comment on.
If the Habs legitimately want to have Xhekaj in the lineup, this is the route.
Andrew Berkshire is the former managing editor of Eyes on the Prize, and the founder of Game Over Network Inc. A Canadian, employee-owned sports media startup focused on platforming young creators across the country. Find Andrew live on YouTube after Habs games with Game Over Montreal, where you can also find Marc Dumont, Kay Imam, and Conor Tomalty to bring you interactive postgame analysis. You can join the Game Over Network’s Discord, and support us on Patreon as we employ over 30 young sports journalists and analysts across Canada’s seven NHL markets.
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