Baseball is back. Fire up the grill (and maybe put on an extra pot of coffee if you’re trying to watch the Guardians’ Opening Day game).
The 2026 season commences this week. The Guardians, as has become tradition lately, open the regular season on the West Coast, with a 10:10 p.m. start against the Seattle Mariners on deck March 26.
It’s the final season before Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations threaten to shut the sport down in December and, potentially, into 2027. For now, it’s all systems go, with everyone trying to catch up to the Los Angeles Dodgers and their bottomless checkbook.
Here’s our complete MLB 2026 preview, with picks and predictions, beginning with the Guardians.
Guardians 2026 record, prediction: 85-77, 2nd in American League Central
It’s been said in this space before, but the Guardians with this leadership structure in place — meaning Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff in the front office and either Terry Francona or now Stephen Vogt in the dugout — have earned the benefit of the doubt year-over-year.
It has become routine for the Guardians to outperform outside expectations. The prevailing trend from the baseball world is to now view them as team that will win 90 games — somehow, someway. Even if it doesn’t make sense on paper, there’s almost an assumption that they’ll find their way to October through the most indirect, scene route. They weren’t supposed to win 90 games (and come within three wins of the World Series) in 2024, Vogt’s first season. And they weren’t supposed to pull off a historic comeback to retake the division from the Detroit Tigers, who at one point held a 15.5-game lead.
There’s also reason for at least some optimism with their 28th-ranked offense from last year. If Chase DeLauter can just stay on the field, he might be the American League Rookie of the Year, which would be Cleveland’s first since Sandy Alomar Jr. in 1990. Travis Bazzana, the No. 1 pick in 2024, is on the way (assuming he, too, stays healthy). The club thinks this could be Bo Naylor’s breakout season. Rhys Hoskins looks like he could be a shrewd late addition to a lefty-heavy lineup.
That being said, a payroll that projects to be roughly $30 million below their 2025 level (now that Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz won’t be paid while they await trial) leaves the roster a bit exposed, if injuries or developmental delays hit them hard. Because of their balance of talent and youth, they might be a club that has a wider range between their ceiling and floor than most other contending teams.
Most of the projections have the Guardians somewhere between 74-79 wins. I’ll take Cleveland to again find a way to outperform expectations — even by a pretty sizable margin — but still ultimately fall just short in the race for the AL Central and a playoff spot, due to the Tigers and a stacked AL East division that might monopolize the Wild Cards.
American League Central preview
- Tarik Skubal is a monster on the mound. He remains in Detroit for now, though it was quite odd how hard the Tigers fought him in arbitration before handing out a huge deal to Framber Valdez. Regardless, the Tigers rotation is better, and the lineup has a few young pieces (Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene, for example) who are still progressing in a positive direction, along with Kevin McGonigle, who could be a front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year as well.
- The Royals might not be getting the credit they deserve as a real AL Central contender in 2026. Bobby Witt Jr. is a true superstar talent, Cole Ragans is a Cy Young candidate, Jac Caglianone has a mountain of potential and a few incremental additions to the lineup has made the Royals a real threat.
- The Tigers, Guardians and Royals could all very well finish a few games within each other, with the division race coming down to the final weekend (or day, or few minutes) of the season. I’ll take the Tigers (88 wins) to claim the Central, followed closely by the Guardians (85) and then the Royals (84). All three are solid, albeit with imperfections.
- The Twins squandered a golden opportunity to contend for a World Series over the last several years and are now rebuilding. Perhaps this comes back to bite me, but I don’t see them keeping up with the top three in the division for a full season, even though some projections are a bit optimistic with Minnesota (PECOTA has the Twins with 78 wins, the Guardians with 74). The White Sox remain in their ground-up rebuild. See you both in 2027, if there’s any baseball to be played. Pick: Detroit Tigers
American League East
- This division is loaded.
- The Yankees might just mash their way to the playoffs, and they’ll get a few key rotation pieces back from injury throughout the year. The Red Sox have a number of core pieces progressing and were aggressive this winter. The Blue Jays took the billion-dollar Dodgers to the brink in the World Series. The Orioles were much improved after a spending spree over the offseason. And while the Rays are probably headed for the fifth-place finish, they’re another well-run team that often exceeds expectations.
- As long as Aaron Judge is healthy, the Yankees remain the top dogs in the East, especially considering they can probably be the most aggressive at the trade deadline to fill any needed gaps.
- Pick: New York Yankees
American League West
- The Mariners have a rock-solid roster and made sensible improvements over the winter, like Brendan Donovan. The lineup is dangerous, the rotation looks great when healthy and they can be aggressive if needed at the deadline as they steer the ship toward “all in” range.
- Pick: Seattle Mariners
Amercian League Wild Card teams
- Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays
- This would be wild, taking three teams from the same division, but the new schedule format that isn’t as in-division heavy benefits the East more than any other. The Guardians, Royals, Astros and Rangers could all be on their heels.
National League East
- The Mets improved their rotation by acquiring Freddy Peralta, and they’ll get a full season of Nolan McLean. A few other pieces (Bo Bichette, Luis Robert Jr., etc.) lengthen the lineup.
- Pick: New York Mets
National League Central
- I think the Brewers are among the best-run teams in baseball (given the circumstances, it’s a group the Guardians also find themselves in). If Brandon Woodruff is truly healthy, the Brewers effectively get back an ace. Kyle Harrison and Andrew Vaughn could be sneakily good additions. And, like the AL Central, this division features some imperfect clubs who all have their blemishes.
- Pick: Milwaukee Brewers
National League West
- The Dodgers probably broke baseball. Well, that’s only half the equation, considering the low-payroll teams also deserve some credit (or blame) for the mess the sport is about to be in after this upcoming World Series. It’s a boring pick. But they’re disgustingly loaded.
- And like the Sacramento Kings in the NBA, I just never know what the Colorado Rockies are trying to do every year.
- Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers
National League Wild Card teams
- Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants
World Series pick
- Nobody not wearing Dodger Blue wants to see L.A. win it again. To be clear, while the Dodgers’ spending is a major factor in the upcoming CBA issues, they are not solely to blame — the issue takes zooming out a bit. But it’s also true that the Dodgers winning another World Series would only make the whole thing look worse. Everybody hating them probably only fuels the clubhouse.
- The Mariners have a deep team, and there’s some anger there following a playoff trip that ended with frustration. A Yankees-Mariners ALCS would be a slugfest.
- Alas.
- Pick: Dodgers over Mariners
American League MVP
- The Aaron Judge-Cal Raleigh race and discussion last season was tremendous. Judge has to be the favorite heading into 2026, but a few young stars in KC and Seattle might be primed to challenge him.
- If you were about to start a franchise with any player, given their talent and age, Bobby Witt Jr. would be extremely high up on that list. He’s a superstar talent, and the Royals are better than many realize.
- All Jose Ramirez does is collect MVP finalist seasons. He’s almost always somewhere in the third-to-fifth range, one of the most talented and consistent players in the game. There’s also an argument that he’s one of the most valuable players to his own team given what would happen if he were to miss significant time.
- Pick: Bobby Witt Jr.
- Value: Jose Ramirez, Pete Alonso
National League MVP
- Shohei Ohtani is probably the most talented baseball player ever — period. How the Los Angeles Angels failed to win anything with him and Mike Trout on the roster is baseball negligence. It’s a boring pick, but even with stars such as Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., Francisco Lindor and others behind him, it isn’t that close.
- Pick: Shohei Ohtani
- Value: Juan Soto (who is hilariously a bit of an underdog because Ohtani is such a heavy favorite)
American League Cy Young
- Tarik Skubal is arguably the best ace in baseball, and now he’s motivated to show the Tigers undervalued him in arbitration talks. The AL Central now gets a ticked-off Skubal — they’ll love that.
- Pick: Tarik Skubal
- Value: Cole Ragans
National League Cy Young
- Paul Skenes is a true generational talent. If the Pirates fail in making it count while he’s still in a Pittsburgh uniform, they should be charged with a baseball felony, along with the Angels.
- Pick: Paul Skenes
- Value: Eury Perez
American League Rookie of the Year
- If you could turn off injuries like a video game, it’d be easy to argue Chase DeLauter should be the favorite here. In the real world, Kevin McGonigle leads a really talented group and has plenty of early opportunities to rack up counting numbers.
- Kazuma Okamoto, with the Blue Jays, could run away with it if he can adjust quickly to MLB pitching and life in the majors.
- Pick: Kevin McGonigle
- Value: Chase DeLauter
National League Rookie of the Year
- Konnor Griffin is a monster talent, but he’ll have to wait to get the call to the majors (similar to Travis Bazzana). Nolan McLean had a dynamite intro to the majors and has the easiest path to innings amongst a super talented group of young pitchers who could battle for this award.
- Pick: Nolan McLean
- Value: Bubba Chandler
Ryan Lewis covers the Cleveland Guardians and Cavaliers for the Akron Beacon Journal. He can be reached at [email protected].
