Credit Graham Burrell
There is one fixture in League One this weekend that all Imps will focus on: Stockport County and Wimbledon.
The Hatters are the only club in action today who can still catch City, but their result will shape who we’re hoping will lose next weekend. If they fail to win, then we know that the only team that can draw level with us, if we beat Wimbledon, will be Bolton. Stockport have to win to keep up their faded chances of going above us in the automatic promotion hunt.
Their hopes are slim – their automatic promotion hopes are rated at 0.2% by Opta, and it’s Cardiff City they’re ranked as being likely to catch. Our promotion chances are rated by Opta as 100%, which is a little off, as until we’re there mathematically, there has to be a chance that we won’t do it. Maybe it should be 99.5% or something.
Anyway, with just the one game this afternoon, we thought we’d give you a little preview, so if you are glued to your screen, you’ll know what you’re watching and what the form guide is.
Stockport v Wimbledon
Dave Challinor’s side sits inside the playoff places, but the margins are tight. Very tight. The gap between fifth and mid-table is small enough that two bad results could undo weeks of good work, while two wins could suddenly put them right on the heels of the automatic promotion contenders.
Credit Graham Burrell
For context, Luton Town are 11th in the table with 55 points from 39 games, so while the Hatters have two games in hand, they are only five points clear of 11th. With the likes of Plymouth (59) and Reading (58) within touching distance, Stockport need the win today.
They come into this one after a mixed spell of results, including a draw at Luton, where Oliver Norwood rescued a point with a second-half free kick. That result kept them ticking along, but at this stage of the season, draws do not always feel like progress when everyone around you is chasing the same prize.
Wimbledon Looking Over Their Shoulder
AFC Wimbledon arrive in a very different position. Sitting in mid-table, they are not in immediate danger, but they are not completely safe either. Their recent form has been inconsistent, and defeats against Stevenage and Leyton Orient have prevented them from climbing into the top half.
Johnnie Jackson’s side still need points to be absolutely certain of survival, but equally, they are probably too far away from the playoffs to realistically mount a late push. That leaves them in that awkward position of still needing results without having a clearly defined target to chase. They’re ten shy of promotion, eight clear of the bottom four and I suspect they could lose every game this season and still be safe. Only time will tell.
They do carry a goal threat, though. Marcus Browne and Matty Stevens have contributed heavily in attack this season, and if Wimbledon are going to get anything from Edgeley Park, those two will likely be central to it.
Team News Issues For Both Sides
Stockport have been hit by injuries at the back, with Brad Hills ruled out with an ACL injury and Tyler Onyang also sidelined for the remainder of the season. Louie Barry is closing in on a return, but this match is expected to come too soon for him. His loan in January looks to have been a bit of a waste, as he’s unlikely to play a major role, until the play-offs. If they get there.
Wimbledon also have injury concerns, with James Tilley unavailable and both Sam Hutchinson and Layton Stewart sidelined. Goalkeeper Nathan Bishop could return after injury and may come back into the starting lineup.
One With Playoff Implications
This feels like a bigger game for Stockport than Wimbledon, and probably a bigger game for Lincoln than Wimbledon! The home side are chasing promotion, chasing momentum, and chasing consistency all at the same time. Wimbledon are chasing security and trying to finish the season strongly.
At this stage of the season, motivation and pressure often decide games like this. Stockport have more to play for, and that usually matters.
It may not be straightforward, but this looks like a game the Hatters will feel they have to win if they want to stay firmly in the playoff picture heading into the final stretch of the season. It’s one they have to win if they’re to have a chance of catching us should we triumph against the same opposition in seven days.
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