NASCAR Cup Series at Martinsville odds, picks: Ryan Blaney favored, but Ryan Preece a sleeper pick

The NASCAR Cup Series is in Ridgeway, Va., this week for the Cook Out 400 at Martinsville Speedway. While Ryan Blaney is the favorite on sportsbooks, our NASCAR experts are going a different direction with their picks for both favorite and long shot.

See those picks below, along with their answer to our questions about the race, including the tire-wear factor, horsepower and what’s up with Hendrick Motorsports so far this year.

You can watch the race Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1 and HBO Max.

Take it away, guys!

Race winner odds for NASCAR’s Cook Out 400

We have to start with Tyler Reddick. I don’t even know if I have a question, but I’m just like … wow! The dominance! Can you frame for us how unexpected this run is (if at all)? Has Reddick spoken about any changes, mentally or in terms of strategy, that got him here? (Also, to me, a casual, it seems narratively delicious: quite a middle finger to NASCAR after Michael Jordan’s lawsuit? Has to kind of feel good for 23XI?)

Jeff: I hate to pour cold water on this because the storyline is he’s had such a turnaround, but as NASCAR data analyst Daniel Céspedes noted on X, Reddick’s last two victories have hardly been a surprise. Even I guessed correctly on the Darlington winner in this space last week, and those who frequently read this piece know that’s not exactly a common occurrence. So Reddick has executed at two of his best tracks and paired that with two superspeedway wins (which are obviously unexpected and more circumstantial). So yes, it’s a great start, and he has a comfortable 95-point lead to go with it. But let’s see what happens at places like Martinsville this weekend (two career top-10 finishes in 12 starts and no top-fives) or Bristol in two weeks (one career top-10) before we get too far ahead of ourselves on what this season could really turn into for Reddick.

Jordan: For several years now, Reddick has been widely viewed as one of NASCAR’s upper-echelon talents, so his having a dominant stretch like this isn’t all that surprising. Let’s remember that in 2024, he had three victories, won the regular-season points title and advanced to the championship-four finale. But because so much has happened since then — his 23XI Racing team was entangled in a nasty federal lawsuit against NASCAR for all of last year — and because Reddick went winless last year, which can be attributed to the lawsuit along with his son having a medical issue, it’s easy to forget what a force he’s often been since joining 23XI.

OK, now for a team that’s not having a dominant time in terms of wins: Hendrick. What’s up with them so far this year? Could they finally get a win here? Is there anything they’re trying to figure out?

Jeff: Martinsville has often been viewed as a “Hendrick track” because the team has won 30 — yes, THIRTY — times there since its debut in 1984. Crazy! But this weekend should be a real test of that based on the winless start to this season, and if Hendrick is off, the alarm bells should certainly start ringing. Chevrolet has a new car this year, and William Byron said last week after Darlington: “We’re still trying to figure things out with this body, but we definitely are making baby steps.” Hmm. Byron dominated this race last fall, and Hendrick had three of the top five finishers, so that’s the benchmark. So if they struggle to run top five, there’s a problem.

Jordan: The trials and tribulations of working with a new car design are almost never easy, and even Hendrick isn’t immune to a process that requires patience. And it’s why it won’t be time to panic even if Hendrick isn’t close to matching its typical performance at Martinsville. Yet. Usually, by late spring or early summer, you see a team figure out its new car and break through. So if Hendrick is running like this come the summer, then go ahead and mash that panic button.

Let’s jump next into the equipment of the race and how it will affect strategy. I hear they’re using the left-side tire they debuted here last fall, designed to increase fall-off. Am I correct, and are we in for a maximum-tire-management race? Who does that favor?

Jeff: The tire should wear nicely, but it won’t be anything dramatic in terms of managing the rubber. The big change is increasing the horsepower from 670 to 750. That will help the tires wear more and should create more passing, in theory. Drivers felt tracks that got the increased horsepower this season, like Martinsville, should stand to benefit. We’ll see if that indeed turns out to be the case on Sunday.

Jordan: Predicting how a Martinsville race will unfold often feels futile because frequently what you are told will happen doesn’t actually materialize. That said, the combination of increased horsepower with this tire compound is promising and hopefully leads to a return to the style of racing that is emblematic of what fans expect to see anytime NASCAR visits a short track, particularly Martinsville and its rich history.

Who is your favorite to win?

Jeff: Yes, I’m aware Ryan Blaney is the best driver at Martinsville. But I’m fully on board with a different Ryan this weekend: Ryan Preece. He’s +3000, so I could use him for the “long shot” answer below, but I actually think he can win. Preece finished sixth and seventh (don’t say it … don’t say it …) last year at Martinsville, and now RFK Racing’s cars seem to have taken another step forward. Plus, the only other short-track race we’ve seen so far this year with the 750 package? That was the Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium, which Preece won. He’s still never won a Cup Series points race (the Clash was an exhibition), but with his short-track racing background and experience at Martinsville? It could all come together this weekend.

Jordan: Ryan Blaney is going to be the driver most everyone gravitates towards as the “favorite” this weekend. But here is something to be mindful of: His dominance here in the Next Gen car has all come in the fall, where in the past three races, he has two wins and a runner-up finish. In that same three-race span in the spring race here, he’s finished 11th, fifth and seventh — and not led a single lap. So who’s the pick then? Let’s go with Kyle Larson, who in the three previous Martinsville spring races has finished fifth, second and first.

Who is a long shot you like?

Jeff: I’m not sure I can go any longer than my winner pick above, but how about a driver to finish in the top 10 with plus-money? Take a flier on Josh Berry, who has won an O’Reilly race at Martinsville, has won the prestigious Late Model race there and finished 10th in his Cup car there last fall. Clearly, he knows how to get around the place and should easily be a top-15 car, which makes a top-10 very possible.

Jordan: For all the reasons Jeff laid out, Ryan Preece is the best sleeper pick. Also, Martinsville is a track where he typically runs well, including last year when he posted top-10 finishes in both races.