The 48 World Cup teams are set. We’ve filled in the bracket and here’s what is going to happen
Finally, we have the full 2026 World Cup draw. The 48 teams competing in the United States, Canada and Mexico this June and July are set.
The final six qualifiers have been confirmed following Tuesday’s play-off finals — congratulations to Turkey, the Czech Republic, Bosnia and Herzegovina (who knocked out Italy on penalties), Sweden, Iraq and DR Congo — and so we now have the opportunity to fill out the tournament bracket for the first time.
Fair warning: this will stand little analytical scrutiny. Instead, it will be full of half-baked theories, tangents and no doubt lots of European bias.
Wish me luck.
Group A
The trouble with this time of year is that it’s easy to pay too much attention to bad results.
A good example: South Korea took a 4-0 hammering from the Ivory Coast at the weekend, and I have no idea what that means. Mexico have dropped off since winning both the Concacaf region’s Gold Cup and Nations League in 2025, so it’s difficult to know what to do with them, either.
The Czech Republic are easier, because they had to come through the European qualifying play-offs. Are they any good? Muscular and resilient, certainly, but they needed penalties and some good fortune to beat quite a mediocre Denmark side in Prague on Tuesday.
South Africa are a worry. Head coach Hugo Broos was really down on their performance at the Africa Cup of Nations in December and January and has been public in his criticism. He’s also made plenty of changes to his squad recently and — deploying the first of what will be many, many assumptions — that is a bit of a red flag so close to the tournament. That’s scared me off. So has their 2-1 defeat at home to Panama in a friendly a few days ago.
Anyway, not really knowing what to do with that Ivorian thrashing of the Koreans on neutral turf in England, I’ve decided to ignore it completely: South Korea finish as runners-up to Mexico, the Czech Republic third. South Africa fall at the first hurdle.
1 Mexico (Q)
2 South Korea (Q)
3 Czech Republic (Q)
4 South Africa
Group B
Asian qualifying is complicated and convoluted, but there was nothing to suggest Qatar have developed beyond where they were four years ago (when they hosted the previous World Cup and lost all three games). Their preparation has been heavily disrupted by conflict in the Gulf region — their March friendlies were understandably cancelled — and bad defeats in late 2025 (to Tunisia, Zimbabwe, and Palestine) suggest that they will be overmatched. Put them down for another three defeats.
Recklessly, I’ve gone for Switzerland as group winners. They are much better than they look and a few of their players — midfielder Johan Manzambi of German Bundesliga side Freiburg, in particular — have an opportunity to really go mainstream this summer.
Alphonso Davies has struggled with injuries over the past year but on his day is Canada’s standout player (Michael Owens/Getty Images)
Co-hosts Canada should get enough goals to qualify as a third-place side, but Alphonso Davies’ run of injuries at Bayern Munich is deeply unhelpful, as is Jonathan David’s difficult first season with Juventus. Bosnia and Herzegovina’s resilience in the play-offs has charmed me. In particular, the sight of a 40-year-old Edin Dzeko (now playing for Schalke in the German second division) throwing his creaking body at a cross and helping to force an equaliser against Italy was one of the footballing moments of the year.
This is going to be an attritional group, and the Bosnians have the tools for it.
1 Switzerland (Q)
2 Bosnia and Herzegovina (Q)
3 Canada (Q)
4 Qatar
Group C
Some Haiti trivia.
Their only other World Cup appearance was in 1974, when they lost all three games but managed to score against Italy and Argentina.
Emmanuel Sanon, a forward who played part of his career for the San Diego Sockers, scored both goals and would later coach the national team, too.
Haiti actually led in that Italy game for six minutes.
Sanon died much too young. He was only 56 when he passed away in 2008 and actually received a state funeral, where several of his 1974 team-mates served as pallbearers.
With 37, Sanon was Haiti’s record goalscorer until quite recently, when he was overtaken by Duckens Nazon, who now has 44 from 79 appearances. Nazon will, barring injury, be part of their squad this summer, which will be the high point of a remarkably nomadic career spent with clubs across France, India, England, Belgium, Scotland, Bulgaria, Turkey and Iran (where he currently plays for Tehran side Esteghlal).
Brazil and Morocco through, Scotland third.
1 Brazil (Q)
2 Morocco (Q)
3 Scotland (Q)
4 Haiti
Group D
I’ll tread carefully. The United States are going to have to play well to get out of this group.
There are, politely, some defensive issues to overcome, and a very talented Turkey side to cope with in the last of their three group matches. The U.S. should be OK against Australia, who are stubborn but beatable, but that opener against Paraguay in Los Angeles on June 13 carries all sorts of pressure. Fail to win there, and they will find themselves facing the third-place route.
United States head coach Mauricio Pochettino will be under pressure to deliver (Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)
They should be fine; I’m not really sold on Mauricio Pochettino’s work with the USMNT, but he has a supply of match-winners that should create some leeway. Paraguay into the third-place pot, Australia heading home.
1 Turkey (Q)
2 United States (Q)
3 Paraguay
4 Australia
Group E
Germany and Ivory Coast through, Ecuador third, Curacao out.
But with some notes: Germany are Germany, but there remains angst about their successive group-stage eliminations from the World Cups of 2018 and 2022. They need to get over that and remember what it feels like to strut through tournaments again. Their qualification was none too pretty at times, but they have all sorts of talent, including Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz and Bayern Munich’s 18-year-old starlet Lennart Karl.
Florian Wirtz is just one of Germany’s talented attacking players (Stuart Franklin/Getty Images)
The Ivorians? That’s going to be appointment viewing. They have taken some really big names — and good teams — to World Cups before, but have never made it past the group stage. What quality they have this time: Yan Diomande, Amad Diallo, Bazoumana Traore. All sorts of fun. The Elephants march on (and Ecuador pad their goal difference in the middle group game against Curacao).
1 Germany (Q)
2 Ivory Coast (Q)
3 Ecuador (Q)
4 Curacao
Group F
The bracket-breaker.
That flagrant European bias points me towards the Netherlands, but they lack the heft to be trustworthy. Where’s the reliable goalscorer? The midfield is good, in places excellent (Ryan Gravenberch, Teun Koopmeiners, Tijjani Reijnders), but there’s nothing in this squad that really makes them an overwhelming group favourite.
Japan are the same. They have talent. They also have depth. A subplot will certainly be whether Ayase Ueda’s excellent goalscoring form for Dutch club Feyenoord carries over into the summer. Is there anything that separates them here, though? I fall into the same trap with Japan every four years, over-estimating them based on friendly performances — see their away wins against Scotland and England this month — but I’m determined to play it cool this time.
And Sweden? If you stare at their squad, you can definitely convince yourself that they can beat the Dutch and the Japanese. Although I don’t really know what that means. Not that we really need another hypothetical here, but what if Alexander Isak hits form before the end of the season — he’s due back for Liverpool before much longer.
*closes eyes*
SWEDEN GO THROUGH AS GROUP WINNERS
*does Viktor Gyokeres’ goal celebration*
Gyokeres celebrates against Ukraine in the playoff semifinal (David Aliaga/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Then the Netherlands, with Japan in third.
Maybe?
Sorry Tunisia.
1 Sweden (Q)
2 Netherlands (Q)
3 Japan (Q)
4 Tunisia
Group G
A pool with an obvious asterisk; let’s assume Iran will take part in this World Cup for now and keep it sober. Jeremy Doku completes 123 dribbles as Belgium advance, with Egypt following, Iran third and New Zealand going out.
1 Belgium (Q)
2 Egypt (Q)
3 Iran
4 New Zealand
Group H
These groups just go on and on. It’s also prompted a minor existential crisis.
Will I be bored by this point? How many of these games will I actually want to watch? How much do I actually like football?
If the answer is less than I originally thought, then what am I doing in this job?
Hang on. Stop right there.
1 Spain (Q)
2 Uruguay (Q)
3 Saudi Arabia
4 Cape Verde
Group I
Now that is a World Cup group. Crisis over, sense of anticipation restored.
France look terrifying. Kylian Mbappe is the headline act, but reigning Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doue and Michael Olise are all among the very best players in the world in their positions and, still, that barely scratches the surface. There was a time when the French could periodically be depended upon to provide some high-farce theatre at a World Cup (see the hubris of 2002 or the various sagas of 2010), but they have become more business-like.
Kylian Mbappe in full flow in France’s recent friendly against Brazil (Michael Owens/Getty Images)
How do we describe Senegal during this tournament? Are they ‘champions of Africa’, ‘AFCON 2024-25 finalists’ or ‘AFCON 2024-25 winners’ but with an asterisk next to their name? Clarity, please, and as soon as possible.
Norway are going to be fun. Erling Haaland is one of the game’s apex predators, obviously, and Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard is among the best attacking midfielders in the world. Antonio Nusa (RB Leipzig) and Andreas Schjelderup (Benfica) are best friends off the pitch and great talents on it. Alexander Sorloth of Atletico Madrid is a big block of granite up front.
For all intents and purposes, Norway are now Belgium, aren’t they? The team you talk about down the pub if you want to sound like you know what you’re on about.
1 France (Q)
2 Norway (Q)
3 Senegal (Q)
4 Iraq
Group J
Let’s throw a spanner in the works: Algeria and Austria to finish above Argentina!
Oh, I don’t know. I’m a Tottenham Hotspur fan and we’re fighting against relegation from the Premier League, so I need some bad things to start happening to other teams. I’m going to will it into being.
There’s some plausible deniability around the seriousness of this exercise, meaning that if I’m wrong, who cares, but if I’m right, it’s a great opportunity to act the sage on social media.
Let’s live a little. Argentina, reigning world champions, you’re in the lucky losers bin.
1 Algeria (Q)
2 Austria (Q)
3 Argentina (Q)
4 Jordan
Will Lionel Messi conquer the world again this summer at age 39? (Marcelo Endelli/Getty Images)
Group K
Group K? There’s a Group K?
Come on.
1 Portugal (Q)
2 Colombia (Q)
3 DR Congo
4 Uzbekistan
Group L
England to win all three games: 5-0, 5-0 and 5-0.
Calm down. I don’t mean it. Three Lions is actually self-deprecating if you listen to it properly, etc.
That Croatia opener is awkward. Luka Modric will still be passing England to death when he’s in his sixties, no doubt, when FIFA is staging this competition on the Moon and waving away concerns about gravity and oxygen, dismissing them as a scare tactic dreamt up by the British media.
Let’s say 1-1, perhaps, in that game then. Keep an eye out for Igor Matanovic, a 23-year-old striker who’s developing fast at Freiburg.
Croatia playmaker Luka Modric is still going strong at 40 (Jurij Kodrun/Getty Images)
Ghana? Not sure. Spooked by their thumping 5-1 defeat by Austria last week and their failure to qualify for the recent AFCON, I consulted The Athletic’s Carl Anka, who is happy with the development of the team’s set pieces but has some concerns about the use of possession in open play and the availability of Mohammed Kudus, who remains injured at Tottenham.
A few hours after our chat, following a 2-1 loss to Germany, the Ghanaian FA dismissed head coach Otto Addo and is pursuing a different technical direction.
So much for doing my research. Let’s put them third and see what happens.
1 England (Q)
2 Croatia (Q)
3 Ghana (Q)
4 Panama
Round of 32
Thirty-two! We’ve only eliminated 16 teams in 1,500 words! My word. Oh no, that’s two more. Hang on…
This is the latest expansion of the World Cup, and it’s here to stay (until it gets bigger again), so it’s best to get used to it.
Germany vs Scotland
Guess the commission: in the days prior, I’m dispatched to a tiny Scottish bar in the post-industrial countryside outside Gelsenkirchen to watch the game with the locals. They hate me, but I still manage to write 5,000 words. Germany win 3-0; Musiala befuddles Scotland, as he did in a 5-1 home victory in Munich in the opening game of the European Championship two years ago.
Jamal Musiala will be a key figure in Germany’s World Cup challenge (Tobias Schwarz/AFP via Getty Images)
France vs Japan
A tough break for Japan here, because I could make an argument for them advancing against almost anyone else. Ritsu Doan and Kaoru Mitoma are fabulous wingers, Daichi Kamada and Takumi Minamino are gifted midfielders and there are all sorts of other reasons to believe in Hajime Moriyasu’s side.
But for every virtue Japan have, France have something more powerful — in defence, in midfield and in attack. Didier Deschamps’ options off the bench are ludicrous, too: Rayan Cherki, Marcus Thuram, Manu Kone. This is a team, remember, that might only find room for William Saliba on the bench.
France advance, 3-1.
South Korea vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
The Koreans are good enough to advance, but I can only make the most flimsy argument for that happening. When Bosnia beat Italy in the play-offs to reach this tournament, they struggled in transition even after Alessandro Bastoni was sent off before half-time. Any attack that includes Lee Kang-in and Son Heung-min is sure to present a challenge. Lee Jae-sung is a crafty playmaker, too.
South Korea go through, 2-1.
Sweden vs Morocco
What kind of mood must I have been in to put Sweden through as Group F winners? I’d had a coffee and too little sleep; I was feeling slightly manic.
But Gyokeres can score goals at this level, I’m certain of it, and Hugo Larsson and Lucas Bergvall are among the most promising midfielders in Europe. Former Brighton and Chelsea (and West Ham) head coach Graham Potter has a pair of very good wing-backs in Daniel Svensson and Gabriel Gudmundsson, too.
However, legally at least, Morocco are the new African champions. They had home advantage at that AFCON, yes, but they have a team of considerable talent: some Premier League side will surely overpay for Bilal El Khannouss in the next few years. Achraf Hakimi is the finest right-back in the world by some distance. Yassine Bounou has fallen off the mainstream radar since his move to the Saudi Pro League three years ago, but he remains an outstanding goalkeeper.
Yes, I’ve talked myself into it. Morocco to win 2-0, capped off with a Brahim Diaz penalty in stoppage time. Forcefully struck this time…
Diaz missed this tame late penalty in the AFCON final this year (Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images)
Colombia vs Croatia
Colombia through, neutralising the accusations of European bias. For now…
Spain vs Austria
England youth international Carney Chukwuemeka declaring for Austria at the beginning of the month was a big story, but it overshadowed Paul Wanner taking the same path. Wanner, formerly of Bayern Munich and Germany’s age-group sides, now at PSV, is a really fine player. Watch out for him.
Not in the round of 16, though: Austria go out here, as Spain ease through 3-1.
The difference-makers are going to do it. Does any opposition coach have an answer for Lamine Yamal yet? He creates and scores. He does both from all sorts of different positions, and with an arsenal of abilities that makes him almost impossible to subdue. Austria are a good side. Better than they were in reaching the last 16 at Euro 2024 and with every reason to be optimistic this summer, but do they have the right counter-measures?
I say no.
Turkey vs Canada
If Turkey get this far, Hakan Calhanoglu will be getting really close to becoming his country’s most capped player. He is on 104 appearances, third behind Hakan Sukur (112) and Rustu Recber (120).
Let’s give him one more: Turkey advance, 2-0.
Let’s call a shot, too: Kenan Yildiz scores the goal of the tournament in this game, skipping over defenders like puddles after a rainstorm, before thudding a long-ranger in off the underside of the crossbar.
Kenan Yildiz is Seb’s pick to score this World Cup’s best goal (Nikolay Doychinov/AFP via Getty Images)
Another mistake I always make: overestimating the importance of home advantage at a World Cup. It worked for Russia in 2018 and before that for France and South Korea in 1998 and 2002 respectively, but not in 2010 for South Africa, 2014 for Brazil or 2022 for Qatar. It’s a distraction.
Belgium vs Czech Republic
Rudi Garcia’s ropey-looking defence is surely going to catch up with him at some point.
I can’t see it here, though: Belgium through, 2-1. Romelu Lukaku scores both.
Brazil vs Netherlands
Here’s a lovely slice of World Cup heritage. This is no vintage Dutch team, though, and Brazil go through, 3-1.
One more win, one more excellent Jack Lang piece, no doubt.
Where’s Neymar? Well, he’s 34 now and in no shape for a World Cup if 10-second clips of his recent performances are to be believed. Surely they are; the internet never lies. But he still has plenty of support and there are some powerful voices who will not accept a Carlo Ancelotti squad that does not include Neymar — meaning he will be at the tournament one way or another, either as a player or as a hypothetical that stalks the Brazil manager’s every decision.
The Neymar era seems over for Brazil, but he still has his supporters (Sergio Lima/AFP via Getty Images)
Interesting aside: did you know the Netherlands (three wins, five draws, four losses) are one of only three FIFA-recognised countries Brazil have a losing record against? The others are Hungary and Norway. In fact, Brazil have never beaten the Norwegians, despite having played them four times (two draws, two defeats). Those games were all between 1988 and 2006. The only encounter between them at a World Cup was in 1998, when Norway won 2-1, thanks to late goals from Tor-Andre Flo and Kjetil Rekdal. Speaking of…
Ivory Coast vs Norway
One concern about Norway: talented as they are, those attacking players are not necessarily the most durable, are they?
Odegaard, Nusa, Oscar Bobb and Haaland have all had their seasons disrupted by injury, and that’s the tenuous premise for bouncing them from the tournament here.
Ivory Coast through, thanks to the magical feet of Diomande.
Mexico vs Ecuador
Mexico on penalties.
Talent for talent, you can barely fit a sheet of paper between these two teams. Ecuador will be bringing some real talent to this tournament: Moises Caicedo, Willian Pacho and Pervis Estupinan, people will know, but Kendry Paez and Jeremy Arevalo, they might not.
But for no reason at all, based almost solely on a vague vision of Raul Jimenez converting a decisive penalty and some wishy-washiness about home advantage (which I dismissed as being unimportant 150 words ago), Mexico advance after a goalless 120 minutes.
Mexico striker Jimenez is one of world football’s best from the penalty spot (Frederic J Brown/AFP via Getty Images)
England vs Senegal
England, 5-0.
(No, let’s be serious… England, 2-1)
This will be the moment the politicians and brands start getting involved.
Last point on the Senegal/AFCON issue: what would happen if the team wore a new shirt at this tournament that commemorated their win over Morocco in January? An ordinary sport would let it go, probably chalking it up to the oddity of the situation, but FIFA is exactly the kind of organisation to take it really, really seriously and — who knows — gaffer-tape an asterisk onto the Senegal shirts?
Algeria vs Uruguay
Another player to watch this summer: Ibrahim Maza from Bayer Leverkusen. He has all the passing vision and skill of a classic No 10, but while playing deeper in the midfield. Good, good player.
He and Algeria through to the round of 16 after a slew of Darwin Nunez chances are missed.
United States vs Egypt
What an occasion this could be. In Dallas, match-winners on both sides, and most likely a highly partisan crowd.
It could also be Mohamed Salah’s final World Cup appearance.
The curtain call for a true great of his era?
Yes, most likely: USMNT through. If the Americans keep a single clean sheet at this tournament, it would be a surprise but Pochettino has goals and assists in this team, which should be enough for now.
This will be Christian Pulisic’s moment. Built up as a battle between him and Salah, in a way that slightly misunderstands their place in the global football hierarchy, Pulisic nevertheless prevails, scoring brilliantly from distance before sullying the moment with a naff celebration.
Two-one to the USA.
(USA! USA! USA!)
Egypt talisman Salah will be 38 by the time of the next World Cup in 2030 (Abdel Majid Bziouat/AFP via Getty Images)
Switzerland vs Argentina
So, to the Argentina issue: they have all the talent in the world, but there are some nagging doubts. Lionel Messi’s age (he turns 39 on June 24) is among them, but there are players in this squad who cannot be trusted and who are prone to lapses in judgement or making mistakes at bad moments.
Their World Cup win in 2022 was littered with them. The opening loss to Saudi Arabia, the quarter-final collapse from 2-0 up against the Dutch, the two leads they threw away in the final and that last-gasp, remarkable save by Emiliano Martinez from Randal Kolo Muani.
Let’s put them through 2-1 winners here — sorry, Switzerland — but bear the above in mind, because we are not done with this strange hill that I have chosen to die on…
Portugal vs Ghana
Sacking your head coach less than three months before a tournament in pursuit of a new technical direction can go one of two ways.
Addo reportedly lost his dressing room, prompting the Ghanaian FA to act, so his successor could oversee a positive upswing. Perhaps, but it’s difficult to see that momentum taking them past such gifted opponents.
Portugal prove too good and coast into the next round — 3-0. Cristiano Ronaldo is heaved into position to score a pair of towering headers, before 19-year-old Porto forward Rodrigo Mora adds a third in the moments before full time.
(Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP via Getty Images)
Last 16
Germany vs France
The March internationals passed without anybody really learning much about Julian Nagelsmann’s Germany, or finding the reassurance they were after ahead of the summer.
Can a brittle defence stand up to an extraordinarily gifted French attack?
I say no. Dembele and Mbappe get right among centre-backs Antonio Rudiger and Nico Schlotterbeck, and Doue, quick as electric current, finishes the Germans off: 3-1.
South Korea vs Morocco
Morocco, and in style.
Sorry, South Korea, I cannot get past those performances in March: 2-0.
Colombia vs Spain
Spain, Spain, Spain.
The story of Alfredo Di Stefano playing for Spain and Colombia surely gets a loving retelling on The Athletic before this game?
I’ll go for 2-1, Yamal scores in the first half for Spain, Mikel Oyarzabal in the second (Oyarzabal has that habit of just showing up, doesn’t he?) and Jhon Arias with a long-range consolation that briefly threatens a fightback.
(David Ramos/Getty Images)
Turkey vs Belgium
The end of the road for Belgium in a derby of nations so often picked as ‘dark horses’ to go a long way at tournaments.
Turkey have a bit of everything and really had no business being in the UEFA play-offs for this World Cup — and only had to take that route because of the misfortune of being drawn in the same group as European champions Spain.
Don’t be fooled; they will throw some punches — and do so here, sending Belgium to the canvas; 2-1.
Brazil vs Ivory Coast
Brazil, Brazil, Brazil.
Raphinha and Vinicius Junior produce performances of beguiling, forceful class. Ivory Coast fall 3-0, but go home having won hearts and minds.
Mexico vs England
England against Mexico in the Azteca? That’s some 24-carat World Cup.
The British media will spend the preceding days studying weather forecasts and worrying about oppressive heat.
Someone will almost certainly remind you that when England played West Germany in the Mexican city of Leon in the quarter-finals of the 1970 World Cup, Bobby Charlton was fatefully substituted after 70 minutes by Sir Alf Ramsey. England were winning 2-1 at that stage of the match but Charlton was ailing in what was variously described as “scorching heat” and the Germans came back to beat the reigning champions 3-2 after extra time.
Algeria vs United States
Another player to watch: Mohamed Amoura. He’s had a tricky time with Germany’s Wolfsburg this season, but that’s more about them than him.
He’ll be heading to the World Cup with a big move to earn for himself ahead of next season and, sorry, that will involve him and Algeria recording a first-ever victory over the UMNT.
After extra time. And some sort of VAR issue, perhaps.
Portugal vs Argentina
Portugal!
Cristian Romero sees red in the first half for a lunge on Bernardo Silva. Martinez saves a Ronaldo penalty on the stroke of half-time, dancing for the cameras before punching the resulting corner into his own net. After half-time, Pedro Neto counters to add a second and put the game beyond the champions’ 10 men.
Cameras linger on the embrace between Ronaldo and Messi at full time, as they face each other for the final time in their careers.
Two legends of the sport shake hands before a friendly in 2014 (Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images)
Quarter-finals
France vs Morocco
France are just too ruthless. Farewell, brave Morocco…
Spain vs Turkey
… and also Turkey, whose run finally ends.
Alvaro Morata becomes the tournament’s top scorer without anyone noticing.
Spain, 2-0.
Brazil vs England
“Oh, he’ll just pick England, won’t he?”
You’re absolutely right. But, rationally, why not?
A loose theory, which England should profit from, is that the congested nature of the football calendar favours teams with a deep squad. In particular, coaches who can rotate dynamic attackers without suffering much technical disruption.
Look at Thomas Tuchel’s wide-forward and attacking-midfield options; that’s England to a tee, and they have an enormous advantage in this match-up. Morgan Rogers or Jude Bellingham. Bukayo Saka or Cole Palmer. Marcus Rashford, Noni Madueke or Anthony Gordon.
England 3, Brazil 1.
Bukayo Saka is among a deep set of attacking options for England (Alex Livesey/Getty Images)
Algeria vs Portugal
Portugal again. For many of the same reasons above. Too many quality players and too much of a physical deficit for Algeria to cope with.
Portugal into the semis.
Semi-finals
France vs Spain
Someone who follows the Spanish national team needs to explain to me why either Joan Garcia or David Raya does not start ahead of Unai Simon. That’s curious, at least to my ignorant eye. (Editor’s note: there’s a piece on that here, Seb, published on March 28.)
Perhaps Rodri’s diminished form for Manchester City following a long absence with a knee injury is reason for concern, but then England fans made that exact mistake two years ago when he went off in the European Championship final, creating a false sense of security. Spain still won.
They did lose last year’s Nations League final on penalties to Portugal, after beating France 5-4 in the semis, but that is their only defeat since March 2024. Now, those kinds of records are never enough to take to the bank, but they are awfully hard to ignore.
Spain to go through.
England vs Portugal
A coin toss, really.
Let’s build a combined XI, and the nation with the most players in it advances.
In goal: Close, but give me Jordan Pickford (England). People like to denigrate Pickford — because of his antics, his hair and because he plays for Everton — but he’s a terrific tournament goalkeeper. He drops the occasional clanger for his club admittedly, but the ratio of mistakes-to-great saves is well in his favour.
Across the back: Reece James (Eng), Ruben Dias (Por), Harry Maguire (Eng), Nuno Mendes (Por).
Declan Rice (Eng), Vitinha (Por) and Bruno Fernandes (Por) are my three in midfield.
Up front, Harry Kane (Eng) is the easy one. Either side of him, Bukayo Saka (Eng) plays from the right and Rafael Leao (Por) from the left. I know Leao is capricious, but he fascinates me; when the mood is right, he’s a force.
So England win 6-5 by way of an arbitrary and highly subjective list of players I like (and therefore advance to the final).
The final
Spain vs England
What is the great strength of the Premier League? Physicality.
And what trait does playing in the Premier League most rapidly diminish? Also physicality.
That would be my fear. Spain’s technical level is higher, and at no point in that Euro 2024 final were England in control of the game. They had 35 per cent possession across the 90 minutes.
Does that change under Tuchel? Perhaps, but the reason for England winning cannot just be “tactics”, and with the concerns about conditioning supported by how Premier League teams have fared in the Champions League knockouts this season, it’s reasonable to worry that we might just see pretty much the same match as we did that night in Berlin two years ago.
Spain win 2-0 and are champions of both Europe and the world.
Well done to them — and well done to you, for staying with me until the bitter/joyous end.
