Fantasy Hockey Mailbag: Panarin, Demidov, Greaves, E. Karlsson, Lafreniere, UFA Non-Disappointments, L. Hughes & More

Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don’t own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Michael)

Two seasons ago I joined a 10 team, keep 5, H2H league as an expansion team along with another GM to make it a 12 team league. Categories are: G, A, +/-, GWG, SOG, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV%, and SHO, and rosters are 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1UT, 2G, 5BN, 2IR+. I’m hoping to change it from one utility spot to six bench spots and/or to remove GWG as a category, if you want to factor those into your analysis.

The first draft after the expansion, myself and the other expansion team had to pick from the 50 players who weren’t kept. Knowing that would make it unlikely to be competitive, I decided to try to focus on building a team that could win in two or more seasons. And it’s worked pretty well, as going into this season my keepers were Mikko Rantanen, Artemi Panarin, Rasmus Dahlin, Lane Hutson, and Sebastian Aho, plus I had amassed a lot of early round draft picks. Here is my current full roster, with any multi-position eligibility noted.

C – Aho, Vincent Trocheck, Elias Pettersson (LW), Mika Zibanejad (RW)
LW – Panarin, Jesper Bratt (RW), Dylan Holloway (C)
RW – Kirill Marchenko, Ivan Demidov, Alex Tuch (LW), Nick Schmaltz (C)
D – Hutson, Dahlin, Dougie Hamilton, Charlie McAvoy, Mikhail Sergachev
G – Sorokin, Daccord
IR+ – Rantanen (LW/RW), JT Miller (C/LW/RW)

As I write this (in early March) I’m currently in 5th place, but only 7 points out of 2nd, with 6 teams making the playoffs. I think I have an okay shot at a playoff run, depending largely on how many of my Ranger players do during their golden week 2 playoff schedule, but I’m still mainly focused on sustainable success moving forward, with likely keepers being Hutson, Demidov, Rantanen, and Sorokin. I’m looking to trade away Marchenko and Panarin but am unlikely to get a deal done for either of them. Most trading does occur in the offseason.

My main question is, should I just keep Dahlin and call it a day? He flashes brilliance, and I like the idea of two defensemen keepers, but he’s still only ranked 90 by total and 100 by average in this format. The other factor is that the dominant GM of this league had Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Evan Bouchard, Jack Hughes, and MacKenzie Blackwood as his keepers heading into this season, but now also has Leo Carlsson and Darren Raddysh. He’s very attached to the first three, but my sense is Hughes or Leo could be obtained in trade, although he is a shrewd trader.

Do you agree with my lock keepers (especially Demidov)? And should I make it easy and just keep Dahlin, or would it make sense to attempt to trade for Carlsson or Hughes?

Given that I received this question a few weeks ago, and Dahlin has ignited, my guess is you’re now more comfortable keeping Dahlin. As it so happens, I covered him in my last Goldipucks, where I concluded he can indeed be a point per game guy, perhaps rising to 90 if Buffalo stays a strong team.

As for whether Demidov is a keeper, it’s either him or Panarin. Miller would’ve been a lock if this was a year ago; however, whether he can return to anything close to his old form is very much in doubt, as for the most part he’s been a shell of his former self when he’s played this season, plus as I’ve noted several times in this column it is quite common that once “rough and tumble” players start to falter, their stats tend to fall off a cliff and rarely rebound. My data suggests this is most likely to happen around age 30, although not always, with Miller, only now slowing at age 33, being a case in point. Still, at his age, and given his style, it could be a stretch to expect him to be even a point per game player again, making him not a keep when you can instead keep Demidov or Panarin.

Focusing on Panarin, for many years his poor output in HIT and BLK was not too bitter a pill to swallow given how great a scorer he was. This season and last he’s settled around a 90-point pace, which is still great, but a step down from his days of 105+. For what it’s worth, he’s done only okay for the Kings, with 19 points in 18 games, translating to an even lower rate than he had with the Rangers. Interestingly although his overall scoring is lower, his +/- is much better and he’s doing fine on the PP plus shooting more. Still, if he can remain a 90-point downside player, even with the HIT and BLK penalty, that is pretty great. As I always say, you can get HIT and BLK in the aggregate from other players, but guys who can produce at a 90+ point rate are not easy to find.

Then there’s Demidov. In his first full season he done quite well, landing on PP1 and scoring at a very good rate given his TOI. In fact, Demidov’s points per 60 minutes puts him ahead of, Mitch Marner, Brayden Point, and Filip Forsberg to name just a few. Now although his scoring pace has slowed since a nearly point per game second quarter, that is likely due to the grind of a full NHL season and him never having played even 50 games at any prior level. It’s good that he is on PP1, as if not then I’d worry about him being Nicolaj Ehlers 2.0, namely a player who did well despite limited ice time, but whose situation never improved. Still though, Demidov is not great in HIT or BLK either, and thus although he is 14 years younger than Panarin, he might not have more value for at least several more seasons.

One option is to not keep Sorokin, and instead keep both skaters. But when it comes to goalies, Sorokin is a rare breed in that he is an entrenched #1. Still, you said you have plenty of early picks, so my advice would be to not keep whoever you feel would be easiest to redraft. Yes, you’ve only been in the league for two seasons; however, you should have a decent idea of when these guys would get drafted. Use that to pick who is the odd man out. Personally, I’d not keep Demidov and hold Panarin until he is no longer as solid of a scorer, plus the Sorokin sure thing. But you know your league best, so I can get behind keeping Demidov one of the other two if you think either of them would be easier to redraft.

As for trading for Hughes and Carlsson, if you say this GM is shrewd and not likely to agree to a deal that would favor you, then I’d not dwell on this. Sure – one or both would be a keeper for you; however, at what cost would they come by? And would you be making your team better but at the same time that team “more better”? By all means engage in a dialogue with the GM; but if it’s getting nowhere, then walk away and stick with what you have. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Me)

What is the likely outlook for Columbus’ goaltending in 2026-27? Yet again Elvis Merzlikins is faring poorly, but unlike in previous seasons there is now a better option in Jet Greaves. Also, Elvis’ deal ends after 2026-27, with Greaves set to be an RFA after this season. Is it all but assured the team will hand the reins to Greaves, or might Elvis have one of his nine lives still left?

In short, during the offseason there’s a very good chance these questions either are answered, or there will be a less cloudy picture than now. For one, we’ll see how much Greaves is signed for, plus how long. We’ll also know if Columbus wants – and, if so, is able – to trade Merzlikins.

I know some have likened what’s happening in Columbus to what occurred in Seattle, with Joey Daccord being Greaves and Merzlikins being Philipp Grubauer. But I think it’s not apples to apples. For one, Daccord was already 27 when he emerged (versus 24 for Greaves), and Grubauer 33 when he faltered, whereas Elvis is just about to turn 32 and has been lousy for several years. And that too is s key point, which is for quite a while Grubauer had put up solid numbers playing 35-40 games per season, while when you boil it down Merzlikins really only had solid numbers in his first two campaigns, during which he played only a total of 61 games.

Ironically, the $5.4M Elvis earns, which used to be cited to justify why Columbus had to keep giving him chances to right his ship, is now not that much, and as such could allow him to stick around as a back-up and sort of insurance policy if Greaves cannot handle the load of being a true starter. If there’s an apt analogy, I think it’s to St. Louis, where this season Joel Hofer has thoroughly outplayed Jordan Binnington, who seems to only shine on the brightest of stages yet for many years remained the starter due to being paid $6.0M. Like Elvis, Binnington’s deal ends after next season and $6M is not nearly as large a price tag as it once was, so Binnington could be relegated to back-up/insurance policy.

How might Greaves fare if tasked with being a true starter? Among the 21 goalies who’ve started 40+ games, Greaves stands fifth in quality start percentage, but in the middle of the pack for really bad start percentage. He is also sixth in GSAA among all goalies, ahead of the likes of Filip Gustavsson, Jake Oettinger, Connor Hellebuyck, and Karel Vejmelka to name just a few. His ES SV% is .912, which is solid but not spectacular, and it’s a similar story for his SV% on the PP and PK.

Where concern arises is the fact his SV% on one day rest is .898, as a true #1 goalie will most often play every other day. But his high danger SV% is third among goalies who’ve played in 40+ games. What is interesting is the average distance of the goals he’s allowed is 23.69 feet, which the highest distance for any goalie with 500+ saves on the season. Who are those with the next highest averages? For the most part, very bad goalies, including Merzlikins, Jacob Markstrom, Tristan Jarry, Alex Nedeljkovic, and John Gibson, with only Igor Shesterkin, Jeremy Swayman and Dan Vladar being over 22 and solid goalies.

Still, Greaves has shown a lot, and Rick Bowness, who I can’t imagine won’t be installed as the official head coach for next season, is turning to Greaves more and more. My guess is Greaves should start upwards of 50 games next season, with stats at least as good, if not better, than he’s put up in 2025-26.

Question #3 (from Me)

Despite being nearly 36 years old and scoring below a 60 point pace in five of the last six seasons, Erik Karlsson looks revitalized for 2025-26. Is this just an unsustainable scoring burst, or can he continue to defy father time?

After producing only nine more points in 164 games over the past two seasons than he did in 82 games in 2022-23, Karlsson has fared much better for 2025-26. On the surface, things seem reasonable given his TOIs, both overall and on the PP, as well as his SOG rate and personal SH%. But before everyone gets ahead of themselves and thinks he has become more of the Karlsson of old, let’s look more closely at the numbers.

Karlsson’s TOI is up versus 2024-25, but not as compared to 2023-24 when his scoring rate was only 56 points. Also, Karlsson went from averaging a mere nine seconds of PK duty in 2023-24, to 1:58 per game in 2025-26, and with no SHPs to show for it. So in essence, Karlsson went from 24 minutes of non-SH TOI in 2023-24, to under 22 minutes this season. Yet somehow he’s scoring much better? Something seems to be not adding up.

Sure enough, the Pens are shooting 11.7% at 5×5 when Karlsson is on the ice; and even though he had many top tier scoring seasons in his career, just once previously – when he had 101 points – did he ever have a 5×5 team SH% in double digits, at 10.5%. What was it the past two seasons? 8.0% and 9.8%, with 9.8% being his third highest total ever. Do I buy that he’s improving in this area, at this age? Nope, and you should not either. That number will come down, as will his scoring.

Also, despite the added SH duty, Karlsson’s OZ% is higher than 2023-24, which does not add up. And if we look at Karlsson’s IPPs, they are not hugely higher, but atypically higher enough to be able to help explain a jump in scoring of roughly what we’re seeing as compared to 2024-25 and 2023-24, especially since his secondary assist rate is very much in keeping with prior seasons, meaning he’s not going to gain or lose points due to that factor.

I can’t go back in time and look at Karlsson’s metrics for the current season before his torrid play of late (25 points in 16 games); however, looking at his hottest stretches in each of the past two seasons, he posted 13 points in 11 games at one stage of 2024-25 and 13 points in eight games in 2023-24. Not nearly as scorching as what he’s doing now; however, for him to be doing what he’s doing is not a sign that he’s discovered the fountain of youth, but instead that he has caught lightning in a bottle, just in this case with a far more impressive period of explosive scoring than normal.

In short, even if somehow Karlsson manages to keep his scoring pace above 65, or even just 60 for the remainder of this season, do not count on a repeat of what we’re seeing come 2026-27. His play now is both hotter and lasting longer than usual, plus his added PK duty cuts against him being able to produce at this rate over the course of an entire season.

Question #4 (from Me too)

As usual, most of the big names who were set to be UFAs have been locked up to contracts before hitting the open market. Realizing that you run an annual poll about potential UFA disappointments, are there any you see as likely to do well?

Indeed the best of the best are no longer available, with, as I write this, just one player (Darren Raddysh) with 60+ points set to be a UFA. Still, I think teams can mine the market for a few gems.

I’ve liked what I’m seeing from Bobby McMann. He’s hit the ground running in Seattle, which is not easy to do given how stingy they are with TOI. But before that, he had a stretch of 15 points in 17 games for Toronto. Also, even though he only has 43 points on the season, he has nine games of two points and one with three. Consistency can come; however, explosiveness is often tougher to obtain if it is not innate. His TOIs and SOG rate have gone up with each passing quarter. He is about to turn 30 but just hit his 200 game breakout threshold. I also love that his overall IPP is 71.7% and it’s an even higher 75.0% on the PP, on top of only 6 of his 17 assists being secondary. He’s not quite a come from nowhere story like fellow UFA to be Raddysh, but he’s standing out, and in a good way.

The next player I’m probably jinxing by mentioning, but Anthony Mantha has had a great season and looks to be rounding back into the form that saw him peak at a 73 point pace before injuries took hold. Yes, his SOG rate is way down as compared to that season; however, him becoming a more selective shooter explains his major rise is SH%. His ice time is low for how well he’s scoring; but for some players less can indeed be more, especially in his case since it allows him to have an OZ% of 64.2%. Either that goes down, but he plays more, or it stays high, and he can produce in line with how he is now. I am concerned that he remains weak on the PP, as failure to score well with the man advantage likely will relegate him to PP2, although that is essentially where he’s been for most of this season. Of course he also needs to dodge the injury bug, which has been so difficult for so many seasons. He’s likely to be a risk/reward gamble, albeit pretty low risk since even if he keeps up his pace over the rest of 2025-26, I expect that he will be a good value to draft or to obtain in trade, so I’m taking that gamble.

Also, don’t look now, but John Carlson is running PP1 for Anaheim. I could see him doing, for whatever team signs him, what Brent Burns did in his first season with Carolina. After all, if you sign Carlson, are you not going to have him run PP1? If not, then why get him? He could opt to stay in Anaheim, but I wonder if he goes to San Jose, to help Sam Dickinson or Luka Cagnoni bide time before they are ready to be a PP QB, and if he does he could pile on the points. He won’t be a draft or trade bargain like Mantha or even McMann, but he has genuine home run potential.

Lastly, although they both have been used more often as wingers of late, I could see a scenario where either Claude Giroux or Evgeni Malkin are inked by Minnesota to center Kirill Kaprizov, who has seen his scoring shrink due to being centered mainly by Ryan Hartman and Danil Yurov. I get that both veterans are nearly 40; however, Malkin is doing great and Giroux could step up if given better deployment. Do I think either one will do well if they go elsewhere? Unclear; however, if either does get inked by the Wild I could see them doing great things.

Question #5 (from Me again)

Is it time to get back on the Alexis Lafreniere train? Since the departure of Artemi Panarin, he’s been the player many had long awaited. But is it plausible that as the team around him has become worse he’s somehow gotten better?

I’m somewhat surprised that Laffy’s stretch of strong play since Panarin’s departure has not garnered more attention. I think it’s because people are skeptical since it’s occurring so long after Laffy’s 200-game breakout threshold and also because Panarin has such a long history of making those around him better. Also, people may feel like Laffy teased them before, finishing with 18 points in 17 games during the 2023-24 season, only to have another disappointing season in 2024-25.

Looking at that 2023-24 data, there was a 5 point game, four games with two points, but also seven with no points. In short, he was all over the place. During his current stretch, he has 22 points in 18 games, and among them four games with three points, three with two points, but seven with zero and just four with a single point. So not quite as extreme, but similarly feast or famine. He had 46 SOG in those 17 games in 2023-24, and his SOG rate is similar, as is his ratio of goals to assists during this current stretch. In short, we’ve seen this before from Laffy, but can he keep it up this time?

What about comparables? Going back to 1990-91, here is the list of forwards who, by age 23 and like Laffy, had played 350+ games but tallied under 200 points: Scott Hartnell, David Legwand, Jeff O’Neill, Elias Lindholm, Sam Bennett, Tom Wilson, Sean Couturier, Patrik Stafan, Marco Sturm, and Ryan Smyth. 

What to make of these comparisons? Hartnell and Wilson are not Laffy type players, O’Neill and Smyth had scored 60+ points at least once in their first four seasons, Lindholm and Couturier are centers, as is Bennett, and Sturm never really panned out. In sum, these don’t suggest Laffy is likely morphing into a point per game player before our eyes, although in fairness most of these players had higher TOIs than Laffy, and were often used on PP1, so he might defy comparison to any of them.

The PP does seem to differentiate what’s happening now versus what occurred in 2023-24, as when he thrived then only one of those 18 points came on the PP, whereas now he’s racked up seven PPPts in 18 games. That’s quite a lot, and it helps make it more realistic to think he won’t come crashing back to earth next season like he did in 2024-25, since he’s being used on PP1 now for the first sustained time ever, and is producing great.

Something else to consider is the sustained success of the Rangers since Laffy entered the league was actually working against him, since the team was doing well and didn’t have to lean on him. So when he didn’t step up, he didn’t get great deployment. Now the team has less surrounding talent and “needs” Laffy, meaning he’s being put into position to succeed and indeed succeeding. Yes, he did get plenty of chances alongside Panarin and the other best of the best for New York, but their talent was not working for him but seemingly against him. With no one to syphon points from him, he’s piling them on. If we had to guess as to what the 2026-27 Rangers will look like, it’s probably similar to now, without the level of talent from past seasons. That should allow Laffy to stall deployed how he’s being deployed now, and, in turn, to have a greater chance of carrying his success into next season.

Although a lot of Laffy’s numbers can be likened to 2023-24, his TOI is higher, he’s on PP1, and he’s getting PPPts. In short, for the first time the Rangers “need” Laffy, and he’s responding. If I had to predict what 2026-27 will hold for Laffy, I think he has a realistic shot of 70+ points, with a better chance of rising to 80 than falling below 60. 

Question #6 (from the Also Me)

Is it too early to be concerned about Luke Hughes? He’s not doing badly, but he’s also not progressing. Were expectations too high given his pedigree, or can he turn into 60+ point defenseman?

I included Hughes among the choices for my poll last week covering the most overrated skaters in fantasy, not because I’d done an in-depth analysis on him but instead because people had held him in such high regard due to his solid rookie season and him being the brother of two true stars. He then received the sixth most votes of the 20 choices, which does suggest people feel he is disappointing in relation to how he is still valued.

Truth be told, it’s hard not to see Hughes’ output since his rookie season as subpar. No, his scoring hasn’t cratered; however, he hasn’t made gains either. Plus, this season his TOI is up nearly two minutes per game. Yes, half of that added TOI has unfortunately been in the form of PK duty; however, his PPTOI is up by 21 seconds and, perhaps most importantly, his offensive zone starting percentage is 56.7%, versus 53.8% last season, which actually translates to more of an increase due to his added PK minutes. Or to put it another way, for his OZ% to have upticked despite a minute more of PK time per game, during which far more often those on the ice will start their shift in the defensive zone, shows that he’s getting enough offensive zone starts to not only offset his PK minutes, but to see his net OZ% rise. In short, even though he’s not a rookie and has added PK duty, he’s being somewhat sheltered, or, to put it another way, he’s being put in a position to provide offense, and he’s not doing so, which is concerning.

Looking at Hughes’ other metrics, he is shooting more, averaging 2.2 per game, up from 1.7 last season. But despite getting more PP time, his PP scoring rate is lower than last season, when it was lower than his rookie campaign. Things there are not trending well, and only gets worse from there as the Devils are shooting 7.5% with him on the ice, which, despite being so low, is a career high. How low is it? Of the 190 defensemen who’ve played 40+ games this season, it ranks him 163rd. It would be one thing if it was a fluke, yet in three seasons it’s been just as low. Very concerning. On top of that, he’s on pace for 59.3% of his assists to be secondary. Yes, defensemen rates should be higher than those of forwards; but only four of the 30 defensemen with more assists than him have a higher rate. It’s not astoundingly high, as many are right around 50%; however, this is something which suggests he’s due to shed points rather than make gains.

Still, not everything is terrible. Hughes’ PP IPP is 73.3%, and was 84.2% last season. That is stellar; but one does have to wonder to what extent it’s a byproduct of him being on PP2 versus PP1. But it is a decent sign, as is his overall IPP of 49.3%, which puts him firmly within the top 30 defensemen. Yet how much value is there in him being a points magnet if points aren’t being scored with him on the ice due to his extremely low team SH%? The answer is, not a lot, as points have to be scored first and foremost or it doesn’t matter whether you’re a points magnet or not.

Keeping in mind defensemen breakouts often correlate to the 400-game mark, and Hughes still has a ways to go to get there. All is most certainly is not lost, but his consistently low 5×5 team SH% is a major concern, as is his scoring not rising despite a higher OZ%. I think there is rightful reason to doubt if he can become a defenseman who will ever hit 60 points, with him perhaps peaking in the 50s.

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To get mailbag questions to me either (1) email them to [email protected] with the words “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line, or (2) send them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is “rizzeedizzee”.

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you’re in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you’re thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it’s best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don’t matter.