Two Argentines, an Italian champion, and a teenage Spaniard making history. The semifinals at the Grand Prix Hassan II in Marrakech have delivered a compelling final four, and Saturday’s matches on the red clay should be well worth watching. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the schedule. But who reaches the final?
ATP Marrakech Semifinal Predictions
Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Head-to-Head: First meeting
Jodar’s run here has been nothing short of remarkable for a 19-year-old in his first clay-court swing on the ATP Tour. He beat Lajovic comfortably, came through a tough three-setter against Machac, and was dominant against Muller before the Frenchman retired. The Spaniard is aggressive from the back of the court, leans on his serve heavily, and his forehand can hurt on slower surfaces. He is only the fourth teenager to reach the Marrakech semifinals this century, which tells you plenty about the quality of this run.
Ugo Carabelli is no soft touch, though. The Argentine has gone 9-3 on clay in 2026 and had to dig deep across his three matches here, including a comeback win over Van Assche after dropping the first set 6-0. He is a seasoned clay-court competitor who knows how to win ugly, break rhythms, and keep the ball in play under pressure. This is his sixth ATP quarterfinal on the surface, and he has been battle-hardened all week.
Jodar’s game is built for moments like this, and his confidence is sky-high right now. But Ugo Carabelli’s resilience and clay-court know-how make him a tricky opponent at any stage. Jodar’s serve and ability to finish points quickly should prove the difference in a match that could easily go three sets.
Prediction: Jodar in 3
Luciano Darderi vs Marco Trungelliti
Head-to-Head: First meeting
Darderi arrives here as defending champion and arguably the most in-form clay-court player in the draw. Ranked 19th in the world, he has won 17 of his last 19 matches on clay and has been near flawless this week, dropping no sets and barely facing a break point in his two completed matches. He won the Santiago title earlier in the year and looks completely at home back on the Marrakech red clay.
Trungelliti has been one of the stories of this clay swing. The 36-year-old reached his second ATP semifinal with a three-set win over Moutet, going 4-6 6-3 6-4, and has put together an outstanding 12-1 record on clay in 2026. He started from qualifying and has not stopped. His ability to extend rallies, grind opponents down, and compete deep into deciding sets has been evident all week.
The problem for Trungelliti is that Darderi thrives in exactly the kind of long baseline exchanges the Argentine wants to create. The Italian is a better mover, a cleaner ball-striker on clay, and he knows every corner of this court. Trungelliti deserves enormous credit for getting here, but Darderi should have enough to advance without too much trouble.
Prediction: Darderi in 2
Main Photo Credit: Smartframe Images
