Earlier this week, in ranking the Timberwolves’ three realistic first-round playoff opponents in reverse order of difficulty, we argued that the Rockets were the preferred matchup, with the Lakers narrowly ahead of the Nuggets in second.
Just a few days later, that order has been shaken up. Due to a major injury in the NBA, there’s now a clearly ideal playoff path for Minnesota.
Lakers superstar Luka Doncic, the NBA’s leading scorer, suffered a Grade 2 hamstring strain in a blowout loss against the Thunder on Thursday. He’ll be out for the remainder of the regular season and is in real danger of missing time in the playoffs as well. Grade 2 hamstring strains have an estimated recovery time of 3-to-6 weeks, and the first round begins in just over two weeks.
With that in mind, the preferred situation for the Timberwolves is the one they’d find themselves in if the season ended today. They currently are the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference, with the Lakers sitting in the No. 3 seed. If those seeds hold, the Wolves would get a first-round matchup against a Los Angeles team missing its best player. And if they won that series, they’d most likely end up getting what looks like the slightly easier of two Goliath matchups by facing the second-seeded Spurs instead of the top-seeded Thunder.
Here’s what the Western Conference standings look like prior to a huge Spurs-Nuggets game on Saturday afternoon (2 p.m. CT, Prime Video).
West standings prior to games on Sat, April 4 | ESPN.com
Wolves fans should be rooting for the Spurs in Saturday’s game in Denver, because the goal is for the Nuggets not to pass the Lakers and get to the third spot. The good news there is that LA has the tiebreaker over Denver. If the Lakers can win three of their final five regular season games without Doncic (at DAL, vs. OKC, at GSW, vs. PHX, vs. UTA), the Nuggets would have to win out to pass them — and that includes two games against the Spurs and one against the Thunder, who are still currently jockeying for the No. 1 seed.
The Lakers also have the tiebreaker over Houston, making a Rockets push for the No. 3 seed unlikely, assuming the Lakers — who are 7-6 without Doncic this season — don’t fall apart.
The other part of the equation is that the Wolves need to remain in the No. 6 seed (unless, of course, the Lakers fall to fourth). They’re two games behind the Rockets but still have a game against Houston next Friday that will determine the tiebreaker between the two teams.
It’s worth keeping in mind that, depending on what happens over the next six days, there might just be a scenario where the Wolves go into that April 10 game against Houston wanting to lose. If a win would it make it more likely that they face the full-strength Nuggets in the first round, we could potentially see Minnesota rest some key players against the Rockets and soft tank in an effort to set up a series against the Lakers. That would be fascinating if it comes to fruition.
