The Michigan Wolverines are just one game away from winning the national championship.
UConn has a veteran roster, led by two-time national champion Alex Karaban, as well as former Michigan center Tarris Reed Jr. But the Huskies’ guards are extremely banged up, with third-leading scorer Solo Ball getting hurt in the Final Four vs Illinois, and they do not have the size to equally match up with the Wolverines.
Michigan is a 7.5-point favorite, per FanDuel, getting as high as 9.5 points late into Saturday night. Nonetheless, UConn and Dan Hurley have won two of these title games in the last three years, so you cannot overlook the Huskies no matter how big an underdog they appear to be.
With all that said, here are three bold predictions for the National Championship.
Michigan wins by double digits in another blowout
I like Michigan even at an alt-spread of -9.5, which is currently +132 on FanDuel. That line could even shift more with the expected news that Wolverines’ forward Yaxel Lendeborg is expected to play after a clean MRI came back on his knee on Sunday morning.
It feels like the Wolverines just need to play at 70 percent capacity to win every game, while their opponents need everything to click to stay in the fight. In Michigan’s three losses this season, its opponents either shot the lights out from three or it limited the Wolverines so much that the poor shooting became a main factor. The issue for UConn, just as it was for Arizona, is that the Huskies are not a prolific three-point shooting team, and that will be the biggest difference once again.
UConn made 12-of-36 triples against Illinois, the most for the Huskies in the NCAA Tournament, and only scored 71 points. With the Wolverines’ 91-73 win over Arizona, Michigan became the first team in history to score at least 90 points and win by double digits in at least five NCAA Tournament games. The Wolverines can get to 90 in multiple ways, and on Monday, that is all they need to do to win by 10 or more in the title game.
Michigan has bullied its way to the title game, blowing out every opponent throughout March Madness. Don’t expect anything less in this one.
Aday Mara cements himself as a top-15 NBA Draft pick
Aday Mara owned the paint against Arizona on Saturday with 26 points and nine rebounds. When Lendeborg went down, it would have been easy for Michigan to panic. But when the Wildcats came within five points after a 9-0 run, Michigan settled in and took a 16-point lead into halftime. The reason for that was the presence of the 7-foot-3 Spaniard.
Mara was the best player on the court by a mile. He made 11-of-16 shot attempts, grabbed nine rebounds, had four blocks and dished out three assists. He altered more shots than the box score shows, as Arizona — one of the best interior scoring teams in college basketball — made just 37 percent of its twos.
He is playing like the best center in college basketball. With a matchup against Reed, Mara has the chance to show the country he is deserving of a lottery pick. Not only does he have the size advantage over Reed, but his awareness has improved so much that opponents have no idea how to limit him.
When facing Arizona, Michigan knew it could not pass underneath its frontcourt. Instead, the Wolverines lobbed the ball off the backcourt to get Mara involved. On the other hand, Mara sat comfortably on the perimeter, even notching a block on the three-point line while forcing the Wildcats to take low-percentage shots all over the court.
Mara’s growth in one season should get every NBA executive excited, and when he has one more strong performance on Monday, you will hear his name called in the first 15 picks this summer.
Elliot Cadeau hits four three-pointers
Elliot Cadeau has been the heart and soul of this team all tournament long, and even when his shooting isn’t perfect, he is making plays all over the court. Cadeau has made at least three triples in three of his last four games, and if not for another cold start on Saturday night, he would have easily eclipsed four.
As for Monday, it feels like a Cadeau game for many reasons. First, Lendeborg is going to be limited. Michigan’s leading-scorer is still limping around, and May even said on Sunday that, “he played the second half like a 38-year-old at the YMCA. A really good 38-year-old at the YMCA.”
Lendeborg could be used in a decoy-role like in the Big Ten Tournament, giving more scoring opportunities to Michigan’s primary ball-handler. Additionally, Cadeau could have a favorable matchup if Ball is either out or limited. If so, this would allow Cadeau to use his quickness to create open looks while forcing UConn to change its guarding assignments.
Cadeau has shown fractions of greatness in the postseason. He has dished 10 assists in each of the last two games, and also scored 17 points against Alabama in a fast-paced game. He has also done a much better job staying out of foul trouble lately. Michigan is going to get the best performance out of everyone, and if Cadeau can get it going in particular, there should be no reason the Wolverines’ don’t win the National Championship.
