A super PAC tied to Senate Majority Leader John Thune announced its midterm spending plan Monday, saying it plans to reserve $342 million in television advertising to preserve the GOP’s Senate majority.
“Thanks to the tremendous successes of Senate Republicans and Majority Leader John Thune, Senate Leadership Fund is better positioned than ever to execute an aggressive offensive strategy to protect and expand the Republican Senate Majority,” said Alex Latcham, executive director of the Senate Leadership Fund.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune
“SLF’s historic investment will help elect strong Republican Senators across key battleground states and ensure that Chuck Schumer and his party remain in the minority,” Latcham added.
While Latcham said that the ad reservations are a sign of strength, the breakdown of where that spending is going actually shows the complete opposite.
SLF is spending nearly 70% of its money in GOP-held seats. And not just GOP-held seats, but seats in states that President Donald Trump won by wide margins in 2024—a signal of just how bad the midterms are shaping up for the GOP.
Indeed, the biggest chunk of ad reservations—a whopping $79 million—is in Ohio.
Yes, Ohio, which Trump won by nearly 12 points in 2024 but—thanks to Trump’s sinking popularity—is looking like a competitive state this fall.
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GOP Sen. Jon Husted is facing voters in this seat for the first time, as he was appointed in January 2025 when JD Vance became vice president. Whoever wins the race—whether it’s Husted or likely Democratic nominee and former Sen. Sherrod Brown—will serve the remainder of Vance’s term, which expires in January 2029.
Putting the most money into this Ohio race shows that the political environment is so bad for Republicans that they now fear losing a Senate seat in a red state.
But wait, there’s more!
Retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina
The second largest segment of ad reservations is in North Carolina, where Republicans are defending an open seat left vacant by retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis.
SLF said that it reserved $71 million in airtime for the race, which is looking seriously grim for the GOP—even though Democrats haven’t won a federal statewide race in North Carolina since 2008.
Multiple recent polls show Democratic nominee and former Gov. Roy Cooper leading GOP nominee Michael Whatley by wide margins. A YouGov survey showed Cooper up 14 points, and a Harper poll had him up by nearly 8 points—both massive margins in a purple state like North Carolina.
In fact, Republicans haven’t led in a single poll since Tillis announced his retirement last year.
Also on SLF’s list is $42 million to help perpetually concerned Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, $29 million to hold onto retiring Sen. Joni Ernst’s seat in Iowa, and $15 million to defend Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska.
Conspicuously absent from the list is any ad spending in Texas, where Sen. John Cornyn is locked in a competitive GOP primary runoff with corrupt Attorney General Ken Paxton. SLF says that it doesn’t view that race as competitive, despite public polling to the contrary.
A cartoon by Jack Ohman.
As for offensive ad campaigns, the biggest reservations are $44 million to try to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia and $45 million for an open-seat race in Michigan. SLF also says it will spend $17 million in New Hampshire.
But in total, most of the money that SLF is spending is to defend the GOP’s majority, which is looking increasingly vulnerable as Trump’s popularity continues to fall as the economy falters thanks to his idiotic boondoggle of a war in Iran.
“This isn’t a sign of strength,” Lauren French, communications director for the Democratic Senate Majority PAC wrote on X. “Republican’s battleground map has increased substantially into deep red states—growing by at least three more states than they predicted just a year ago. And it makes sense. They have bad candidates, an uninspiring messaging, and an approval rating in the pits.”
No wonder the GOP is throwing around so much money.
