On 1 April, the International Centre for Defence and Security held a public discussion on the recent developments in European nuclear cooperation and French nuclear doctrine.
The discussion moderated by Marianne Paire, Visiting Fellow at the ICDS, opened with a summary of French President Emmanuel Macron’s Île Longue speech, which introduced the concepts of ‘forward deterrence’ and ‘shouldering.’ It highlights an enhanced European dimension in France’s nuclear doctrine as well as the need for a strong conventional foundation to support deterrence below the nuclear threshold and improve escalation management.
Opening remarks were delivered by H.E. Mr Emmanuel Mignot, French Ambassador to Estonia, who further elaborated on key concepts of France’s Forward Deterrence. He emphasised increased cooperation with European partners while reaffirming France’s full autonomy in nuclear decision-making and its commitment to modernising and strengthening its nuclear capabilities.
Jyri Lavikainen, Research Fellow at the Finnish Foreign Policy, Northern European Security, and NATO programme in the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA), argued that Macron’s speech signalled a shift in strategy rather than doctrine. He noted that credible deterrence requires Europeans to consider the interaction between conventional and nuclear escalation and to signal to Russia—which monitors these debates closely—that Europe is prepared to defend itself against aggression.
Dr Ian Anthony, Analyst at the Strategy and Policy Department of Defence Analysis at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), underlined the strong cooperation between Sweden and France on the nuclear issue. Dr Anthony said that the French initiative has been welcomed in Stockholm, but stressed the need for further coordination. He highlighted the importance of clarifying the role of conventional forces within the broader deterrence framework and their contribution to escalation management. Dr Anthony added that European partners, particularly on NATO’s north-eastern flank, should explore ways to support France in strengthening Europe’s overall deterrence.
The discussion concluded with a round of questions focusing on regional European cooperation formats, the potential for further US retrenchment from Europe, the evolving European dimension of France’s nuclear doctrine and its connection to France’s ‘vital interests’, France’s political contingencies, and arms control scenarios in an increasingly tense security environment.
More photos: Flickr
