Preview: Monte-Carlo Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs. Matteo Berrettini – prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far
Matteo Berrettini and Daniil Medvedev will face off for the fourth time on the ATP Tour on Wednesday in one of the most anticipated second-round matches at the Monte-Carlo Masters.
While both players have a combined total of 33 titles, Berrettini has slipped down the rankings after struggling with injuries, while a resurgent Medvedev aims to move on from his early exit in Miami to thrive during the European clay swing.
Match preview
Medvedev has a love-hate relationship with clay, as it is widely known to be his least preferred surface, but he hopes to improve upon an average performance from 12 months ago.
Although the 23-time ATP champion reached the quarter-finals in Madrid, his 2025 performance on the dirt was marred by third and fourth-round eliminations in Monte-Carlo and Rome, culminating in a first-round defeat at the French Open.
That run began a streak of three consecutive first-round exits at Grand Slams before the six-time Masters champion recovered with a fourth-round showing in Australia in January.
Since being beaten by Learner Tien in Melbourne, the former world No. 1 boasts an 11-4 record entering the clay swing.
A former semi-finalist in 2019 and quarter-finalist four years later, Medvedev has not exited in the first or second rounds since 2018, and he aims to secure an 11th career win in the Principality to improve upon his 10-6 record at the Masters event.
© Iconsport / Mauricio Paiz
A mouthwatering third-round meeting with Joao Fonseca or Arthur Rinderknech awaits the victor, and this could well be Berrettini, although that outcome hinges on the Italian defeating Medvedev for the first time on tour.
The former world No. 6’s tournament began with a terse first-round victory over veteran Roberto Bautista Agut, who retired four games into their opener, granting the 29-year-old only his fifth career win in the Principality.
While he is a one-time Masters finalist on clay, having reached the Madrid Open title match in 2021, Berrettini has never gone beyond the third round in Monte-Carlo, something he aims to change this year.
The wild card’s form leading into the tournament has been mixed, with the 10-time titleholder standing at 7-6 before facing Medvedev.
Even though four of his seven wins this season have been on clay, three of those victories came against opponents ranked No. 322 (Federico Coria), No. 107 (Tomas Barrios Vera), and No. 129 (Dusan Lajovic), while he has lost to six of his 10 matches against players ranked in the top 100.
Thus, it will be interesting to see if the former world No. 6 can deliver against a top-10 player, something that has eluded him since beating Alexander Zverev at this very event 12 months ago.
Tournament so far
Daniil Medvedev:
First round: Bye
Matteo Berrettini:
First round: vs. Roberto Bautista Agut 4-0 ret.
Head To Head
ATP Cup (2022) – Round Robin: Medvedev 6-2 6-7(5) 6-4
ATP Cup (2021) – Final: Medvedev 6-4 6-2
Indian Wells (2018) – Round of 64: Medvedev 6-7(6) 7-5 6-4
While Medvedev leads Berrettini 3-0 in their head-to-head, all three meetings occurred on hard courts, with their last encounter taking place four years ago in the ATP Cup.
Their only previous meeting at a major tournament was at Indian Wells six years ago, which Medvedev triumphed in three closely contested sets.
Wednesday will mark their first clash outside of hard courts, with the Russian player entering with a 19-5 win-loss record in 2026 compared to his opponent’s 7-6.
We say: Medvedev to win in three sets
Although prone to the odd surprising defeat, particularly on his least favoured surface, Berrettini’s ongoing run of losses to top-10 opponents and his underwhelming 2026 record suggest that Medvedev may edge their encounter to advance to the last 16 in the Principality.
