Will the 2026 hurricane season feature a ‘Jurassic El Niño’
Most weather models are calling for a moderate to strong El Niño. One senior hurricane researcher nicknamed the possible climate pattern a Jurassic El Niño.
- The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have a near-average number of storms due to a developing El Niño.
- AccuWeather predicts 11 to 16 named storms, with four to seven becoming hurricanes.
- Forecasters anticipate three to five direct storm impacts on the United States this season.
- The Carolinas and the Gulf Coast are considered higher-risk areas for direct impacts.
A developing El Niño is expected to shape the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, likely keeping the total number of storms near historical averages. But that does not mean North Carolina — or the United States — is in the clear.
Experts still expect multiple storms to have direct impacts this year, according to the latest forecast from AccuWeather, and warn that it only takes one hurricane to make a season destructive.
“It’s very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of what the official forecast is,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has not yet issued its official forecast.
When is hurricane season 2026?
Hurricane season begins on June 1, but the AccuWeather forecast warns that conditions could increase the chance of preseason or early-season tropical cyclone development near the U.S. in May or June.
How many hurricanes are expected in 2026?
AccuWeather predicts:
- 11 to 16 named storms
- 4 to 7 hurricanes
- 2 to 4 major hurricanes
That compares to historical averages of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Forecasters also expect three to five direct impacts in the United States.
A “direct impact” does not always mean landfall — it can include flooding rain, storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds along the coast.
What’s the hurricane forecast for North Carolina?
Looking ahead to the 2026 hurricane season, the Carolinas are considered one of the higher-risk areas for direct impacts along with the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast, according to AccuWeather. While seasonal forecasts suggest a near‑normal year in terms of overall storm activity, any hurricane or tropical system that moves inland could produce heavy rainfall and localized flooding, hitting areas that are still rebuilding from past events.
Parts of North Carolina remain especially vulnerable to flooding this spring as the state continues recovering from Hurricane Helene. The storm left widespread water damage, downed trees and impaired drainage systems across central and western regions. Many rivers and streams are still in recovery, while debris from Helene — including weakened or fallen trees — can block waterways and worsen flash flooding.
Saturated soils and damaged infrastructure mean the ground is less able to absorb heavy rainfall, increasing the risk from even moderate storms.
Prepare now for hurricane season: What to include in an emergency kit
Basic supplies
- Water — at least 1 gallon per person per day (3–7 days)
- Nonperishable food — 3–7 day supply
- Manual can opener
- Paper plates, cups, utensils
Power and communication
- Flashlights (one per person)
- Extra batteries
- Portable phone chargers/power banks
- Battery-powered or hand-crank radio
Health and safety
- First aid kit
- Prescription medications (at least a week supply)
- Over-the-counter meds (pain relievers, allergy meds, etc.)
- Hand sanitizer and disinfecting wipes
- Masks (optional, for dust/mold cleanup)
Important documents
- Copies of IDs, insurance, medical records
- Emergency contacts list
- Cash (ATMs may be down)
- Stored in a waterproof container or bag
Clothing and personal items
- Change of clothes
- Sturdy shoes
- Rain gear
- Blankets or sleeping bags
Sanitation
- Toilet paper
- Garbage bags
- Moist towelettes/baby wipes
- Plastic bucket with lid (if plumbing fails)
Tools and backup supplies
- Multi-tool or basic tool kit
- Duct tape
- Plastic sheeting
- Fire extinguisher
- Matches or lighter (in waterproof container)
Food prep and cooking
- Portable stove or grill (outdoor use only)
- Fuel (propane/charcoal)
Special items
- Baby supplies (formula, diapers)
- Pet food, water, leash, carrier
- Glasses/contacts and supplies
- Hearing aid batteries
For your car
- Full tank of gas
- Emergency kit with water, snacks, blanket, jumper cables
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at [email protected]. Find her on Facebook here.
