Examining 5 NY Jets NFL Draft theories: Pass on Reese? Trade Breece Hall? Ty Simpson Round 1?
It is now silly season, the time of the year when people have run out of things to talk about. Free agency is in the rearview and the NFL Draft is still a few weeks away. It’s the part of the NFL calendar when theories about what teams might do run rampant.
Every team is willing to trade down and trade up. A team you wouldn’t expect to be interested in a quarterback had a private meeting with one, so they must be interested. What if the Raiders didn’t actually want Fernando Mendoza? We’re just asking questions here.
The Jets, as always, have been tied to many of these rumors, theories and ideas — not just because they are the Jets but because they own two picks in the first round (No. 2 and No. 16) and two more early in the second (No. 33 and No. 44).
What should you believe? Let’s run through some of the Jets-related ideas circulating these days:
1. David Bailey over Arvell Reese at No. 2
The idea: The Jets will go against expectation and draft Texas Tech’s David Bailey over Ohio State’s Arvell Reese.
Why it’s out there: It’s an idea that’s picked up some steam lately, though that might largely be a product of how much time Reese has spent as the presumptive favorite for the pick. Still, it’s an understandable theory because of the nature of who Reese and Bailey are as prospects.
The Jets have done a lot of work on both prospects and spent time with both at their respective pro days. Bailey is an ideal fit as an outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme, which is expected to be the Jets’ base defense in 2026; some of the Bailey-Jets projection is built around that logic.
Will it actually happen?
It is definitely a possibility. Reese and Bailey are two different flavors as prospects.
Reese feels like a projection since he didn’t have the production in college (6.5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss in 2025), but that’s probably not the best way to assess him. Just watch the film — he explodes off the tape with unreal athleticism and competitive fire. He also carries unique versatility as a player who can play off-ball linebacker and fly off the edge as a pass rusher. He’s also only 20 years old. There’s a reason he’s drawn comparisons to Micah Parsons.
Bailey is more of a sure thing, and the Jets view him as the best pure edge rusher in this class, which is not something that should be ignored. He feels more fully formed as a player than Reese right now, with the production (14.5 sacks in 2025) to show that he should contribute right away as a pass rusher. Though Bailey struggles against the run, and the Jets already have one edge rusher like that in Will McDonald. If the Jets spend a lot of time in a 3-4 base, that makes Bailey an ideal fit — though it should be noted how Aaron Glenn has emphasized at every turn how multiple the Jets defense will look.
“We will be a multiple defense,” Glenn said at the owners meetings in Arizona. “There will be elements of 4-3, there will be elements of 3-4. I think sometimes that’s overblown. You look at it, you’re in nickel 70 percent of the time. So you’re in a four-down space for the most part. Once you go into base defense there’s a number of things you can do. I love front variations, so you’ll see some four-down fronts, some five-down fronts, and you will see a lot of movement within that. So I don’t want to sit here and say exactly who we’re going to be because we’re going to be a little bit of everything.”
If the Jets’ defensive formation will truly be ever-changing, then Reese is the perfect fit as someone who can line up all over the field.
Glenn was asked about Reese’s lack of production and turned that into an opportunity to compare Reese to All-Pro edge rusher Danielle Hunter.
On Hunter, Glenn said that his college stats “weren’t up there, but he had all the traits and he had a coach that could coach him to be where he’s at now. I look at it the same way … it’s a combo of the traits and the football character. Is that player coachable enough to do the things you want him to do to be successful?”
So, Reese still feels like the favorite to be picked, but Bailey is definitely a contender.
Something also to keep in mind: The Titans and Cardinals are believed to have interest in Bailey, which is notable if the Jets wanted to trade back a pick or two and gain additional capital.
2. Ty Simpson at No. 16
The idea: That the Jets will use their second first-round pick (16th overall) on the Alabama quarterback.
Why it’s out there: There’s only one surefire first-round quarterback prospect in this class (Mendoza), so naturally many people have started to talk themselves into the consensus No. 2 prospect at the position as a possibility for teams lacking a long-term solution at the position. The Jets only have 35-year-old Geno Smith under contract for the 2026 season.
The Jets have also done extensive work on Simpson. They not only attended his pro day in Tuscaloosa but key brass — Aaron Glenn, Darren Mougey, offensive coordinator Frank Reich, quarterbacks coach Bill Musgrave among them — had a private dinner with Simpson and also conducted a private workout with him the following morning. It’s safe to assume Simpson aced the conversational portion of those meetings, but there are serious questions about his viability as a first-round prospect.
Will it actually happen?
It’s smart to be skeptical that the Jets have interest in using the 16th pick on a player who goes against much of what Reich tends to look for in his quarterbacks — along with the biggest red flag of all: Simpson’s inexperience.
It’s been written ad nauseum: Rarely has a quarterback with only one season of college starting experience (like Simpson) succeeded in the NFL. The last quarterback the Jets drafted in the first round with that level of experience was Mark Sanchez in 2009. He was technically the starter on two Jets playoff teams, but was largely propped up by his supporting cast and only played relatively well in 2010 and 2011 before flaming out.
“We want the biggest sample size we can get,” Mougey said at the NFL owners meetings. “It’s always projection with all these guys. The bigger the sample size, naturally, you might feel better about it. We’ll evaluate it, and there’s a lot of good things to see in the games (Simpson) did play.”
As for the Reich factor: Glenn typically favors quarterbacks with some mobility. Reich typically prefers quarterbacks who meet a certain size/style threshold. Smith isn’t the most mobile but he can move when needed and he’s 6-3, 221 pounds with a big arm.
Simpson is only 6-foot-1, 211 pounds and dealt with injuries for much of his lone season as a starter. He has some level of mobility that is appealing — he scrambled 33 times for 207 yards last season, per TruMedia — but he lacks the skill set that Reich looks for. And Reich’s opinion is being heavily weighed in the way the Jets are evaluating quarterbacks. Most evaluators view Simpson’s arm talent as average.
He is also viewed as a prospect who desperately needs seasoning. It’s possible the Jets believe in his potential and the coaching staff’s ability to get it out of him, but more likely the Jets would be interested in Simpson in the second round than with the 16th pick.
My prediction for No. 16 remains pass-catcher — if one of Makai Lemon or Carnell Tate falls there, ideally, but if not: Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson, Indiana’s Omar Cooper or Oregon tight end Kenyon Sadiq make sense.
3. Trading Breece Hall — and replacing him with Jeremiyah Love
The idea: The Jets are interested in Love, the Notre Dame star, in coalition with a possible trade.
Why it’s out there: The Jets are doing their part to try and make people think anything is possible with the second pick. Per the New York Post, the Jets met with Love over breakfast recently. The only reason the Jets would even consider picking Love, viewed by many as the No. 1 or 2 overall prospect in this class talent-wise, is if they were considering the possibility of moving on from Hall.
Hall is currently on the franchise tag and not expected to attend the Jets’ offseason program until (or unless) the Jets sign him to a new contract. And, technically, the Jets have the ability to trade Hall while he’s on the tag too, which would become more likely if they intended on adding Love to the fold. Something to consider: Glenn was with the Lions when they surprised many by taking Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round of the 2023 draft. (Side note: The Jets actually wanted to draft Gibbs in the first round that year but the Lions picked him first; they took McDonald a few picks later.)
Will it actually happen?
Of all these scenarios, this feels like the biggest smokescreen. The Jets are not a running back away from contention, especially considering they already have a running back in the fold who they view highly enough that they used the franchise tag to retain him.
It would be genuinely shocking if, after everything Mougey and Glenn have said publicly and privately, they turned around and not only traded Hall but used the No. 2 pick on a running back. More likely, the Love meeting was a smokescreen to get the juices flowing for some of the other teams drafting in the Top 10 who might want to add Love — perhaps the Giants or Commanders.
Mougey will re-engage with Hall and his representation after the draft and there is some optimism on both sides that a deal will be reached, though that is far from a guarantee. The deadline for a new contract is July 15, just ahead of training camp, and if no deal is signed by then Hall will have to play on the franchise tag ($14.29 million) or hold out.
“Things are in a good place,” Mougey said. “I’m hopeful.”
And Glenn: “I’m a huge fan of Breece. I think he’s a top running back in this league. Once we get through the draft I’m sure that’s going to be revisited. We’ll see how that goes. Breece knows where I stand and he doesn’t need a lecture from me on how this goes.”
4. Trading back
The idea: The Jets are willing to trade back from the No. 2 pick to pick up more assets.
Why it’s out there: Because it’s true. This isn’t a draft that’s viewed as one with many (if any) surefire stars. Many teams are already looking ahead to the 2027 draft class as the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. If the Jets aren’t completely in love with any of their potential targets at No. 2, or if they think they can trade back a few spots and still pick up somebody they do love, then it would behoove them to explore a trade-back.
They have certainly had (and will continue to have) those conversations, though any deal is unlikely to happen until closer to the draft — if at all.
Will it actually happen?
Unlikely, but not impossible. All it takes is one team getting antsy about a prospect it desperately wants. The Jets would like to pick up a third-round pick in this draft since they don’t currently have one, as well as add more 2027 picks.
If the Titans (No. 4) want to jump ahead of the Cardinals (No. 3) to get an edge rusher like Arvell Reese or David Bailey, they’d be a potential spot for a trade-down. The Giants (No. 5) and Commanders (No. 7) might be duking it for the right to draft Love. It would take a blockbuster deal to go back any further than that, though the Cowboys (No. 12) are always liable to make a splash and they own two first-round picks in this draft.
5. Someone other than Arvell Reese or David Bailey at No. 2
The idea: The Jets are more willing to take someone at a non-premium position with the No. 2 pick than you might think.
Why it’s out there: Some of the most intriguing players in this draft class are players at positions that don’t typically rise to the No. 2 pick — including Love, though he’s unlikely to be a Jet, as mentioned. The ones who would make sense to at least consider if the Jets were eschewing positional norms and simply drafting who they believe to be the best player available: Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles, Ohio State safety Caleb Downs and, to a lesser degree, Ohio State wide receiver Carnell Tate. (Reese went to Ohio State too. How about those Buckeyes, eh?)
Styles was the star of the NFL Combine (6-5, 244, 4.46 40, 43.5-inch vertical) and the Jets could use a game-changer in the middle of their defense. An off-ball linebacker hasn’t been drafted in the Top 5 since the Buccaneers took Devin White fifth in 2019. Styles is far from traditional because of his ridiculous size/athleticism combo. NFL.com compared him to Fred Warner. The Jets might prefer Reese because of his projection as a Micah Parsons-type, but Styles is tempting.
Dane Brugler called Downs a “human missile.” He’s a versatile, athletic safety who jumps off the film and should force more turnovers in the NFL than he did in college — not only that, but the Jets have been searching for a true playmaker at safety since Jamal Adams, who they picked sixth in 2017.
NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah recently floated Tate as someone worthy of the No. 2 pick. He’s the consensus top wide receiver prospect in this draft and would look nice paired with Garrett Wilson (who also went to Ohio State), but the Jets shouldn’t be drafting a wide receiver second overall.
Glenn was with the Lions when they used first-round picks on a running back (Gibbs) and an off-ball linebacker (Jack Campbell) and both became All-Pros. The reality is the Jets have needs pretty much across the board on their roster and, hot take alert, should simply take the best players.
“I’ve learned this really from Sean Payton: You’ve got to shut out the outside noise,” Glenn said. “If you love the player, go get the player. I truly believe in that. If you love the player, go get the player, regardless of positional value.”
Will it actually happen?
It would be quite the shocker if the Jets drafted Styles, Downs or Tate at No. 2 — they all feel more likely if the Jets were to trade back. Of this group, though, Styles is the most likely to be in consideration at No. 2, even if it’s unlikely they take him.
