Having Failed to Win a “Marathon” [sic] without Training, Trump Announces Blockade of Iran’s Blockade

Virtually every major outlet has referred to JD Vance’s one day bid to make peace a “marathon,” reaching new heights of infantilizing measures for these clowns. We’ll get more details of why that effort failed: once again the US came without experts, JD had to keep calling Daddy (who was busy at a UFC match), the US walked into negotiations with no way of speaking for other players, most importantly the Israelis.

The Saudis probably nixed the quickest way to make “peace,” — for the Iranians to let the US into their toll booth business, payable in Trump crypto (which genuinely was on the table at one point).

So now Trump has declared that he will blockade Iran’s blockade.

Even ignoring the effects this will have in Hormuz — it won’t alleviate fuel shortages, but it will give China more incentive to get involved — there’s something about which the geniuses in the White House may be unaware: Iran has a backdoor, a backdoor via which Trump’s boyfriend has been supplying Iran.

I maintain that this strike — described as an exclusively Israeli one — is among the most interesting and least noted developments of the war.

An Israeli strike on a naval outpost in the Caspian Sea targeted Russia’s support for Iran in the war, hitting a supply line that the countries have used to move ammunition, drones and other weaponry, people familiar with the matter said.

Last week’s strike was Israel’s first ever on the world’s largest inland sea. Far beyond the reach of the U.S. Navy, the sea connects Russian and Iranian ports about 600 miles apart, giving the countries a place to freely swap weapons along with goods such as wheat and oil.

The route has become especially important for transferring Iran’s Shahed drones—now made in both countries—which Russia has used to bombard Ukrainian cities and Tehran has used to strike airports, energy facilities and U.S. bases across the Persian Gulf.

Cooperation between the two countries has expanded during the war, with Russia sharing satellite imagery and improved drone technology to help Iran attack U.S. assets and other targets across the Gulf, people familiar with the matter have said.

Russia claims — who cares if the claims are bogus — that this is civilian trade.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry condemned Israel’s attack, calling the port an important trade and logistics hub that it actively uses for trade in civilian goods with Iran. Moscow also warned against expanding the war to the Caspian.

And the description of Israel’s efforts to avoid escalation with Russia leaves unmentioned Trump’s even greater love for Putin.

Israel has long sought to maintain good relations with Moscow, in part to avoid conflict in Syria, where Russia used to have a significant military presence. Russia’s changing stance in the region to more aggressively challenge the U.S. and its allies since the invasion of Ukraine has complicated Israel’s calculations.

Israel didn’t mention Russia when disclosing the attack to avoid angering Moscow and putting further pressure on it to get involved in the war, analysts said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin several times over the past few months.

Israel wouldn’t attack Russian ships that continue to ply the route, one of the people familiar with the matter said.

Analysts said that while the strikes were significant, Iran and Russia would likely be able to shift trade to other Caspian ports.

“It’s not going to completely lead to the decline of Iranian food security or Russian food security or even when it comes to drone transfers,” Grajewski said. “But it could disrupt the flow for a time.”

Iran would not be able to export oil via this backdoor (but that’s not much different from the sanctions in place before the war). But Trump would have to escalate to blockade Iran, as opposed to just the Strait of Hormuz.