Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Garrett Crochet (BOS) @ MIN (L) – 1.2 IP, 10 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 13% CSW, 55 pitches.
Let’s all take a moment and have some sympathy for those who drafted Garrett Crochet. Yesterday was rough and that’s not doing it justice: 1.2 IP, 10 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 13% CSW, 55 pitches (L). Against the Twins, The Twins! How did this happen?
Well, when you see lines like these, you should expect at least one, if not multiple of the following: Poor strike rates, velocity dips, drops in movement, tipping pitches, horrible luck, an error or two that extends frames, and relievers adding to the pain. Let’s see…his sinker and cutter returned a 50% strike rate, his velocity was down almost two ticks from the start, an error did occur, but in the second, and boy did he have some terrible luck. We’re talking the first two balls in play being grounders just inside the third base line + the third landing a flare in the same spot down the line, plus guys hitting bad pitches and finding holes, all the stuff. Obviously, not all of it was luck (duh), but for a line like this, there’s no luck that saves you.
Maybe he was tipping? It’s possible, but watching this, it didn’t seem like it. He was missing terribly at a lower velocity, making at-bats easier on hitters, and he could have been fine if the balls found more gloves and fewer bats. Now, the poor command and velocity dip? That’s the scary part. It’s in the realm of possibility Crochet simply wasn’t feeling great and everything is totally fine in his next outing. There’s also the possibility those two issues are correlated and something is affecting him that lasts. Right now? I’d take a chance and buy low if the manager is panicking. Think of Luzardo, think of Skenes, think of what should have happened – Crochet gets the hook well before it gets this terrible. The most likely outcome is Crochet still being a stud arm for fantasy teams. Play that as you’d like.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Justin Wrobleski (LAD) vs NYM (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 90 pitches.
This is something. Sure, I’ve been interested in Wrobo Cop for a bit and you’d think this would make for a celebration, but…it’s the Mets. And Koufax was awfully generous. With four whiffs. 93/94-mph heaters that fell to 91/92 by the eighth frame (understandably so!). The same, simple two-pitch mix with the rare curveball is here. He’ll also get Coors + @CHC next. I don’t like this tone. I’ll have whatever tone I think is appropriate, thank you very much. Now, I did like that he executed the BSB with high heaters (flat 1.3 HAVAA) and low sliders, and that the Dodgers had no inhibitions about letting him throw 90 pitches and coast through the eighth.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) @ ATH (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 84 pitches.
Remember those first two starts? No? Good. He’s the Eovaldi you imagined when you drafted him.
Will Warren (NYY) vs LAA (ND) – 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 89 pitches.
Everything looks great until you see 3.2 innings. What happened?! A Caballero error that led off the fourth happened. He was perfect for the first three, but this pushed his pitch count an extra 32 pitches before getting the hook and it’s frustrating. This was an outing where Warren was finally featuring changeups to LHB effectively (26% usage, 30% SwStr!) and working sweepers to RHB more than his sinker (39% usage!). No more four-seamer/sinker and not much else. So it goes, at least this makes me feel better about the Royals on Saturday.
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs WSN (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 88 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. It’s either him or Skubal next week. But his first start! Skenes has a 0.94 WHIP despite that first start. Oh.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) @ BAL (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 92 pitches.
It’s all coming together…kinda. The line is beautiful and oddly enough, Nelson’s success came mostly against LHB with his slider and cutter working incredibly well with his four-seamer while the curveball was 3/7 strikes (okay, it was four-seamer dominance at 63% usage and 79% strikes). The RHB attack that has looked more promising actually featured sub 60% strikes on both his slider and heater, with just 6/50 whiffs. No, that’s not ideal. He also was dramatically down with his extension from seven feet to 6.6 feet, but I’ve come to understand that extension can vary a fair amount. ANYWAY, we keep rolling with this and yell at the clouds that Nelson continues to have a rough schedule for some reason (TOR, SDP, @CHC).
George Kirby (SEA) vs HOU (W) – 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 99 pitches.
We nearly saw a Careful, Icarus after getting relieved with two on in the eighth, but we slept easy as they left stranded. It was Kirby’s best game of the year on the day I removed his AGA tag, and even looking at this line, I don’t have regrets. It’s a 21% strikeout rate on the year and his slider is still failing to earn the whiffs we know it should get. However, the sinker is going inside to RHB and returned four outs on all inside heaters hit in play. That’s what’s up. Maybe throw more of them? Batters are still having little trouble with the slider away, despite over two feet of movement separation between them. Maybe get it even more inside…After all, just two landed off the plate inside and one was fouled off. Just saying.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs CHC (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. A two-run shot in the fourth and that’s about it. Y’all should be happy with this result on a day where Sánchez returned a poor 47% strike rate on changeups, and I’m thanking his four-seamer velocity for climbing to 95.3 mph for his King Cole. Oh, and the passivity of the Cubs for letting it return 33% called strikes. Thanks for that.
Gavin Williams (CLE) @ STL (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 93 pitches.
Ayyyy just two walks. That’s all I really want on a given night from Gavin as his stuff should be good enough to handle the rest. That said, he was awfully chaotic with the heater and cutter to LHB, and his sinker stayed away to RHB, never inside. Whatever, it’s Gavin. You’re gonna like it, but you’re not gonna like it.
Dean Kremer (BAL) vs ARI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 80 pitches.
Kremer gets the Gold Star tonight after we found out he’d get the pearl just a day earlier. His splitter was deadly to LHB (45% usage and 28% SwStr with a 72% strike rate is absurd) and quickly brushed RHB aside with sliders and cutters, while a 1-2 four-seamer well-spotted upstairs was launched for a HR. Go figure. He’ll get the Guardians up next and given his splitter feel here, it’s kinda tempting against all those LHB.
Grant Holmes (ATL) vs MIA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 59 pitches.
Womp womp. The Marlins got to him even with a 31% SwStr rate on his slider and the offense saved him from a loss after a three-run fourth. The early hook has already been scrutinized by many and I understand it after he tossed 38 pitches in the fourth. I don’t like it, but throw better pitches in the inning and you’ll earn the fifth. It’s a terrible schedule with 2x Philly up next, and we move on.
Eury Pérez (MIA) @ ATL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 76 pitches.
Blegh. I moved Pérez down The List preemptively as I questioned his command development and it’s clear he’s not there. He should still be more effective than this even without above-average precision, and I have to give him the Cherry Bomb tag for now. Your guess is as good as mine as to when he’ll find a rhythm to locate properly. It may not be until he’s off the Marlins. Oh dear.
Luis Severino (ATH) vs TEX (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 94 pitches.
He got bamboozled in the first via two walks + a three-run BURGER BLAST off 96 mph cheese down the pipe, then settled in well for the next 5.2 innings. Now he hosts the White Sox and gets a revenge game in Texas next Friday, and that’s not bad at all. His cutter is still legit and it’s cool seeing more than fastballs + sweepers. There’s even a new changeup in here that works well to LHB.
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 95 pitches.
A three-run shot, then a Careful, Icarus as he loaded the bases to kick off the sixth and escaped with just one run on the books. But hey, seven strikeouts and a dub! And he’s still under 90 mph. He sure is! And yet, the four-seamer is getting upstairs and the changeup is below. There’s a world where he makes it work. Is it this one? Probably not.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs CLE (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 105 pitches.
You started Liberatore? Great, here’s two strikeouts and pain. His slider and changeup feel were terrible (33% strikes on the slowball, 46% on the slider = oh no.) and I’m all for moving on past Liberatore until we see a guy comfortably executing his gameplan.
David Peterson (NYM) @ LAD (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 89 pitches.
We didn’t expect this one to go well and those who had no choice, well, at least you got some punchouts. I am impressed with Peterson’s slider, though. He’s brought it back to 86 mph at the cost of a little less drop, and he was phenomenal at locating the pitch down to LHB. If only he could also locate it backfoot to RHB again. Sigh. I’ll actually mention that his overall command was far better than the four walks would suggest – sure, he had some poor misses on heaters, but he was around the area of intent with heaters, changeups, and sliders all game. I’ll take that each time if he can replicate it. So, start against the Cubs? Uhhhh, no. Let’s hope he has the same feel so we can feel good about Rockie Road and @LAA after.
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) @ NYY (ND) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 82 pitches.
Jeez, with all of these threes and fours, you’d think he’d get more swing, eh? I’m not a musician, Nick. Well, fine. We saw a reverse BSB from Kikuchi here, if you believe it: high sliders and changeups, low four-seamers to RHB, which obviously didn’t work out well, nor did it align with the likely game plan for a date in the Bronx. You shouldn’t be chasing this.
Cade Cavalli (WSN) @ PIT (L) – 1.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 48 pitches.
Jeeeeeez. That second frame was chaos. He walked a pair with a single, then walked in a run before two more singles sent him to the showers. This was a no-good-very-bad day. It’s traditional for me to ignore games like these, as it’s obviously an outlier, and if you’re in a deep league, you may be fine starting him against the Giants. Personally, I haven’t been into Cavalli in the first place, let alone after this one.
Mike Burrows (HOU) @ SEA (L) – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 98 pitches.
If you haven’t watched it yet, I suggest taking a look at my quick breakdown of Burrows, breaking down my agony watching him throw fastballs to Josh Naylor. And the thing is, he only allowed one run outside of those two blasts, even returning a Gallows Pole. How? Why, he threw great changeups to LHB. Just not to Naylor for some reason. Twice. I know how ridiculous it sounds, but that slowball is looking great to LHB and the slider, despite allowing five hits (Koufax!), was great at 24% SwStr and 76% strikes. Just 36% fastballs is the way to go moving forward. Errr, maybe 30%.
Javier Assad (CHC) @ PHI (L) – 4.1 IP, 9 ER, 11 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 82 pitches.
If you were wondering who gets removed when Boyd comes back, you can stop doing that. Go figure out the best breakfast pastry to purchase or whatever. Let your brain go freeeee.
Game of the Day
Cole Ragans vs. Framber Valdez – OH IT’S ON JASON COLLETTE. Nick! It’s Noah Schultz’s MLB debut! Oh, right. That’s cool, too.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire and MLB Photos | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
