- Investors may be wondering whether Chevron, at around US$188 per share, still offers value or if most of the easy gains are already behind it.
- The stock has recorded a 20.7% return year to date and a 42.6% return over the last year, alongside shorter term moves such as a 1.2% decline over 7 days and a 5.0% decline over 30 days.
- These recent moves sit against an ongoing flow of company and industry updates that continue to shape expectations around energy prices, long term capital spending, and shareholder returns. Together, these factors influence how investors weigh Chevron against other large energy names and broader market options.
- Chevron currently has a valuation score of 3/6, which means it screens as undervalued on half of Simply Wall St’s checks. The next step is to compare several valuation approaches and then consider a more rounded way to think about what this score really means for you.
Chevron delivered 42.6% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Oil and Gas industry.
Approach 1: Chevron Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow model takes forecasts of a company’s future cash flows and discounts them back to today using a required rate of return. The goal is to estimate what those future cash flows are worth in today’s dollars.
For Chevron, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $18.0b. Analyst inputs and Simply Wall St extrapolations point to projected free cash flow of $30.3b in 2030, with a series of annual estimates between now and then that are discounted back to today.
Pulling all those discounted cash flows together, the DCF model outputs an estimated intrinsic value of US$362.54 per share. Against a current share price around US$188, this implies the stock trades at a 48.1% discount to that intrinsic value, which screens as materially undervalued on this method alone.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Chevron is undervalued by 48.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 58 more high quality undervalued stocks.
CVX Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Chevron.
Approach 2: Chevron Price vs Earnings
For a profitable company like Chevron, the P/E ratio is a useful way to connect what you pay for each share with the earnings that back it. Investors typically look for a P/E that reflects both the growth they expect from those earnings and the risk they see in the business and sector. A higher perceived growth outlook or lower perceived risk can justify a higher “normal” P/E, and vice versa.
Chevron currently trades on a P/E of 30.5x, compared with an Oil and Gas industry average of 15.1x and a peer group average of 24.2x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Chevron is 31.0x. This Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of what Chevron’s P/E “should” be, based on factors such as its earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and company specific risks.
Because the Fair Ratio incorporates these company specific drivers, it can be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry, which may have very different growth, risk and profitability characteristics. Chevron’s current P/E of 30.5x is slightly below the Fair Ratio of 31.0x, which suggests the shares screen as undervalued on this metric.
Result: UNDERVALUED
NYSE:CVX P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026
P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 19 top founder-led companies.
Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Chevron Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. This is where Narratives come in, giving you a simple story behind your numbers by linking your view of Chevron’s future revenue, earnings and margins to a forecast and then to a Fair Value that you can compare with today’s price.
On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are an accessible tool used by millions of investors. You set assumptions and a Fair Value, and the platform tracks how that stacks up against the live share price to help you decide whether Chevron looks rich or cheap on your terms. Those Narratives then update automatically when new information such as earnings or news arrives.
For example, one Chevron Narrative currently anchors on a Fair Value of about US$184.69 per share, while another is closer to US$203.00 per share. This shows how two investors using the same company can reach different yet structured conclusions based on their own expectations and risk views.
For Chevron however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Chevron Narratives:
These sit on opposite sides of the fence, so you can quickly see how different investors are thinking about the same stock and decide which view is closer to your own.
🐂 Chevron Bull Case
Fair value: US$203.00
Implied pricing gap vs last close: around 7.3% undervalued based on that fair value.
Revenue growth assumption: 2.69% a year.
- Focuses on low cost production, the Hess acquisition and record output as support for long run cash generation and resilience to commodity price swings.
- Builds in ongoing cost reduction, efficiency gains and spending on carbon solutions as a way to support margins and keep options open under tighter regulation.
- Flags risks around reliance on hydrocarbons, large project exposure, reserve replacement and rising ESG and policy pressures, but still lands close to the analyst consensus fair value near US$203.
🐻 Chevron Bear Case
Fair value: US$184.69
Implied pricing gap vs last close: around 1.9% overvalued based on that fair value.
Revenue growth assumption: 13.97% a year.
- Highlights that the share price sits well above several moving averages, with overbought signals on indicators like RSI and KDJ and volatility screening as elevated.
- Points to nearby resistance around US$190.86 and support levels much lower, with recent price action described as a tug of war between buyers and sellers.
- Argues that recent gains and valuation near multi year highs leave less room for error, so the fair value estimate of about US$184.69 bakes in a modest pullback from current levels.
If you want to see where your own view of Chevron fits between these two reference points, you can compare the full community narratives, adjust the assumptions and track how your fair value stacks up over time. To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Chevron on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you’ll be alerted when the story evolves.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Chevron? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
NYSE:CVX 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
New: AI Stock Screener & Alerts
Our new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.
• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)
• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying
• High growth Tech and AI Companies
Or build your own from over 50 metrics.
Explore Now for Free
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email [email protected]
