El Niño may hand Western Canada a warm, dry summer

Published on Apr. 19, 2026, 8:00 AM
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A risk for elevated temperatures and dry conditions may raise the potential for drought and wildfires this summer
Summer is fast approaching and all eyes are on the extended forecast to see what the upcoming season may offer across Western Canada.
All indications point toward a fast-growing El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, which will likely exert a significant influence on Canada’s summer ahead.
DON’T MISS: El Niño may split Canada’s summer in two
A potentially strong El Niño is right around the corner
Water temperatures are quickly warming up around the equator in the Pacific Ocean, a sign that we’re rapidly switching from La Niña to El Niño.
April kicked off with an El Niño watch, and forecasters see the potential for this event to grow quite strong by the summer months.
This pattern of warmer-than-normal ocean waters can have a significant influence on the atmosphere around the world, including right here in Canada.
Divided spring snowpack across Western Canada
Before diving into this summer, it’s helpful to look at what we’ve experienced so far this spring. Western Canada heavily relies on seasonal snowpack for water resources, as well as drought and wildfire prevention during the warm season.




