Addressing the structural reasons why the UK is so dependent on imports, meanwhile, is likely to be trickier. Back in the 1970s, the country had 18 refineries – but that’s now down to four.
“I think there is probably a point in saying, actually, do we need more resilience from a homegrown perspective in terms of our capacity in the UK to be able to refine a higher proportion of our fuel?” says Skybus’ CEO Jonathan Hinkles.
The question is how that could be done. The remaining refineries have already been asked to prioritise jet fuel production. But according to Amaar Khan, “this doesn’t happen overnight, and doesn’t result in a significant increase in jet fuel output”.
One option could be to boost local production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). A synthetic fuel, it can be derived from wastes, such as old cooking oil and agricultural residues; from dedicated energy crops; or from using renewable energy to convert water and carbon dioxide into liquid hydrocarbons known as e-fuels.
So far SAF, as the name suggests, has been promoted mainly for its environmental credentials. These can vary widely depending on the method used to make it, but in general burning SAF adds less carbon to the atmosphere than burning fossil fuels. Both the UK and the EU have mandates to significantly increase the amount of SAF used over the next 25 years.
However, the industry is in its infancy. There is relatively little SAF available at the moment, a large chunk of what we use comes from East Asia, and it is very expensive – typically trading at more than $1000 per tonne more than conventional fuel. Nevertheless, Hinkles believes if these problems can be overcome, SAF can help reduce our reliance on foreign imports.
“It really becomes a question of; can you actually get SAF? Can we scale up production of SAF at a meaningful rate in the UK or Europe to take over an increasing proportion of jet fuel supply?”, he says.
Green campaigners agree. “Increasing SAF production won’t eliminate jet fuel imports overnight,” says Tom Taylor, UK policy manager for lobby group Transport and Environment.
“But by scaling it up, we can shift the source of aviation fuel from geopolitically sensitive fossil fuels to locally managed renewable grids and waste streams.”
That would require investment on a large scale, however, and clearly remains a long way off.
In the short term, meanwhile, dark clouds are hanging over the industry. There seems little prospect of jet fuel prices coming down quickly, and if fears of a shortage prove justified, then the aviation industry and the travellers that rely on it are heading for a turbulent summer.
