Two days of action and a low takeout make the all-stakes Pick 5 that Laurel Park offers very intriguing. The wager starts in race 11 on Friday and includes the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) and the Preakness. Three of the five races feature 10 or more horses, which should help guarantee a solid payoff.
Below I analyze the five races in this sequence and put together a Pick 5 ticket.
Click here for Laurel Park entries and results.
Friday, race 11, The Very One Stakes
Lost and Found has been on a roll over the synthetic. If she can transfer that form to the turf, over which she previously has run well, then she will be tough in this spot. She has shown the versatility to win on the lead or off the pace. Saturday Flirt is the class of this field and is the horse to beat on her best day. She ran poorly last time, but that effort was off a layoff and was against a tougher group than she faces here. Sunna has been below average on the dirt but has been very good in two turf starts. She takes a sharp step up in class, but could be this good on the turf. Tactical speed, an outside draw and Luis Saez should help this filly sit a great trip.
Friday, race 13, Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
Braken Poppa seeks her fifth win in a row. She will step outside of Louisiana-bred company for the first time but has continued to improve as her competition has gotten better to this point. She will get first run on My Miss Mo and might be able to handle this class level. Ivy Girl is light on speed figures, but she was visually impressive in the local prep last time out. She was able to close into slow fractions and is undefeated in two starts in blinkers. She will have to show further improvement, but she offers nice value at 15-1. My Miss Mo got away with an easy lead in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), but she ran well and faced the best competition of anyone in this field. Without much pace pressure signed on in this spot, she might be able to set slow fractions once more.
Saturday, race 11, Gallorette Stakes (G3)
Awesome Czech has won three of five races on the turf since adding blinkers and is 5-for-8 lifetime at the distance. She ran competitively against Proctor Street, who would be favored in this race. She is the horse to beat as she returns to the turf off of a freshening. Child of the Moon disappointed last out but would be a standout in this race based on her prior form. I expect her to bounce back with a much better performance for Irad Ortiz Jr. and Chad Brown in this spot, and she is the most logical alternative to Awesome Czech.
Saturday, race 12, Jim Mckay Turf Sprint Stakes
Jean Valjean catches a field without much early speed and should be able to get loose with Flavien Prat aboard. He has four romping wins from seven tries on the turf, including two wins at Laurel Park. He offers nice value in this sequence as a 5-1 single.
Saturday, race 13, Preakness Stakes
Incredibolt should be able to sit a great trip in a Preakness field loaded with speed. He is one of the few runners in this field who is proven around two turns and against stakes company. This colt was an intriguing Kentucky Derby long shot after completing the fastest final three furlongs of anyone in the field in their final prep. He can build off of his sixth-place Derby finish while facing a much easier field on Saturday. Chip Honcho has a stakes win around two turns and has been facing elite competition compared to many of his rivals in this spot. He narrowly lost to Paladin while finishing more than five lengths clear of eventual Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo in the Risen Star Stakes (G2). He is a bit inconsistent, but he certainly has the ability to win a race like this and should be left on all tickets as a potential boom-or-bust candidate. Taj Mahal has a legitimate chance to be the hometown hero as he goes for his fourth win at Laurel Park. Like Chip Honcho, he is a bit of an all-or-nothing prospect as his elite early speed could force him into a speed duel or help him sneak away as the speed of the speed in a race without many bona fide closers. Though he defeated a soft field, he was awfully impressive drawing off in his last start and could prove to be off this caliber. Iron Honor fits a successful pattern for trainer Chad Brown. Cloud Computing and Early Voting both were lightly raced horses who lost the Wood Memorial (G2), skipped the Kentucky Derby and won the Preakness. Iron Honor follows the same pattern, and it is not hard to make a case for this colt as he removes blinkers for this start. He showed in his first two starts that he is fast enough to complete with this group and will be a major factor if he is not distance challenged.
50-cent Pick 5 ticket
3/5/8
2/5/10
7/8
3
1/6/9/12
