Royal Challengers Bengaluru
Played: 13, Points: 18, NRR: 1.065
Remaining match: SRH (A)
RCB have not only sealed their place in the playoffs, but more-or-less ensured that they will finish in the top two. After Rajasthan Royals (RR) lost last night to Delhi Capitals (DC), only Gujarat Titans (GT) and Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) can match RCB’s points. However, it’s near impossible for both teams to go past RCB on net run-rate, given that GT have only one match, and SRH two, to catch up. Not to forget that RCB also have another game to play.Now, for instance, if RCB concede 210 and lose by 50 runs in their last match against SRH, their NRR will only drop to 0.791. For GT – currently on 0.400 – to go past this mark, they will have to beat Chennai Super Kings (CSK) by around 116 runs. Similarly, SRH will have to defeat CSK by around 89 runs, after the 50-run win over RCB.
Punjab Kings
Played: 13, Points: 13, NRR: 0.227
Remaining match: LSG (A)
PBKS’ campaign has been on a freefall for the last three weeks, and their qualification chances have taken a further beating with the defeat to RCB. With just one game to go, against Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) – who have won two of their last three contests – PBKS can finish with a maximum of 15 points. That will leave them at the mercy of other results as five teams can finish on 16 or more.
However, the points table is so intriguingly poised that 13 might still be enough to qualify as the fourth team. That can happen if RR lose their two remaining matches and DC lose to Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR), who in turn lose to Mumbai Indians (MI). That will leave PBKS and KKR fighting for the fourth slot with both on 13.
With all of the other results being the same as above, PBKS will qualify with 15 points without NRR coming into play if they win their last match.
Gujarat Titans
Played: 13, Points: 16, NRR: 0.400
Remaining match: CSK (H)
GT can confirm a place in the playoffs with a win over CSK in their last game. A top-two finish will then depend on whether SRH win both their remaining matches or not; if they do, it will come down to NRR.
If GT lose against CSK and end with 16 points, they will not be assured of a top-four finish, as five teams can still finish on 16 or more points – SRH, GT, CSK and RR, apart from RCB. However, CSK play their last game on Thursday and RR play one of their two remaining games before that, so a loss for either of those teams will ensure qualification for GT, as both RR and CSK need to win all their matches to reach 16.
Sunrisers Hyderabad
Played: 12, Points: 14, NRR: 0.331
Remaining match: CSK (A), RCB (H)
A win for SRH against CSK on Monday will seal qualification for them, as it will ensure CSK can finish on no more than 14 points. As mentioned above, it will also confirm a top-four finish for GT, leaving only one spot up for grabs.
If SRH beat CSK and lose to RCB, then they can hope to finish in the top two only if GT lose to CSK. Both SRH and GT will then be on 16, with RR having the chance to join them if they win their last two. NRR will decide the team which ends up second among these three.
if SRH win both their games, then they will finish in the top two if GT lose to CSK, or if GT win and have a poorer NRR than SRH. On the other hand, two defeats can eliminate SRH as four teams – RCB, GT, RR and CSK – can finish on 16 or more points.
Rajasthan Royals
Played: 12, Points: 12, NRR: 0.027
Remaining match: LSG (H), MI (A)
With defeats in their last three games – and six defeats in their last eight – RR have been struggling. Even if they win their last two – against teams who have already been eliminated – they could still be one of four teams fighting for three spots on 16 points. However, if CSK lose to SRH on Monday, then 16 will assure qualification.
To qualify with 14 points without NRR coming into the frame, they will need CSK, DC and PBKS to lose their matches, and for KKR to lose to MI.
Chennai Super Kings
Played: 12, Points: 12, NRR: 0.027
Remaining match: SRH (H), GT (A)
As mentioned above, even if CSK win their last two matches and finish on 16 points, they could still be in a four-way fight for three spots. However, if CSK lose to SRH, then 16 points will be enough for qualification, which means SRH and GT will both be through to the playoffs.
For CSK to take the fourth spot, they will have to beat GT in their last match, and hope that several other results go their way, including defeats for RR, PBKS and KKR, so that none of them get to 14 or more. CSK probably wouldn’t mind an NRR battle with DC, who are languishing on -0.871, but RR are currently level with them on NRR as well, which means the margins of results will matter immensely in case it comes down to a tie-breaker between the two teams.
Kolkata Knight Riders
Played: 12, Points: 11, NRR: -0.038
Remaining match: MI (H), DC (H)
PBKS’ defeat against RCB has offered some more hope to KKR, though qualification is still not entirely in their hands, as five teams can finish on 16 or more points (including RCB, who have 18). For KKR to qualify without NRR, they will have to hope that no more than one out of SRH, RR and CSK go beyond 15 points – SRH need only one win to move to 16, while RR and CSK need two each. If that happens, and PBKS lose to LSG, then KKR can qualify with two wins and 15 points. In fact, if SRH lose both matches, CSK lose to GT, and RR get no more than two points from their two remaining matches, then both KKR and PBKS can qualify with 15 points.
If KKR lose to DC then will be most definitely be out, but if they lose to MI and beat DC, they will still have an extremely remote chance of qualifying, if PBKS lose to LSG and stay on 13. It will then come down to NRR between PBKS and KKR for the fourth spot.
Delhi Capitals
Played: 13, Points: 12, NRR: -0.871
Remaining match: KKR (A)
DC’s NRR is so poor that their only real chance is to get to 14, and then hope that other results work in their favour, so that they make it as the fourth team without NRR coming into play. For that to happen, PBKS, CSK and RR will have to lose their remaining matches. Then RCB, GT, SRH and DC will be the four teams that qualify.
S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats
