The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War has assessed “the character of the war is shifting in favour of Ukrainian forces – at least for now”.
It says Russia is losing more soldiers to make fewer gains. Russian casualties have been outpacing its monthly recruitment figures for five months.
The pressure is increasing in Moscow.
Nigel Gould-Davies, of the International Institute of Strategic Studies, says with Russia “facing growing industrial and manpower constraints, it must soon decide whether to forcibly mobilise its economy and society”.
Forcing people to sign up to join the military “would be highly disruptive and unpopular”, he says, and could carry major risks for Russia’s stability.
But none of this alters the threat to Ukraine.
Kyiv is still recovering from Russia’s most recent “revenge attack” over the weekend, when Russia launched nearly 600 drones and 90 missiles, most of them directed at the capital.
Ukraine’s air defences destroyed most of the drones, but 35 missiles still hit a target.
The bombardment included the rare use of at least one Russian hypersonic Oreshnik missile – fitted with six warheads and extremely difficult to shoot down using conventional air defence systems.
Stupak says the missile’s primary use is for “propaganda purposes”. So far, he says, Russian Oreshniks have only been carrying inert warheads and have caused limited damage.
Kyiv may well struggle to deal with similar large-scale, repeated attacks.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has renewed his appeals to allies for more air defence systems.
Yurii Inhat, a spokesman for Ukraine’s Air Force, says the main problem remains “the limited number of interceptor missiles available for Ukraine’s air defences”.
US-made Patriots remain the only effective weapon for shooting down Russia’s ballistic missiles.
They are in short supply.
There may be signs that Russia is getting more desperate – but for Ukraine and its allies too, that may be a reason to worry.
Additional reporting by Anastasia Levchenko, Volodymyr Lozhko and Firle Davies
