Texas Governor Greg Abbott leads polls and prediction markets in his reelection bid amid the Lone Star State’s close U.S. Senate race between Democratic state Representative James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Democrats are aiming to make Texas, long a conservative stronghold, competitive in this year’s midterm elections following Paxton’s victory over Senator John Cornyn in the GOP Senate primary runoff on Tuesday. Polls point to a competitive race despite President Donald Trump carrying Texas by 14 points in 2024.
Talarico’s strong numbers give Democrats their best statewide opening in years. Democrats hope Talarico could make the race a true toss-up amid a wave of anti-Trump sentiment across the country fueled by rising gas prices and cost-of-living concerns. Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee in the gubernatorial race, hopes to narrow the margin against Abbott by November.
Newsweek reached out to the Abbott and Hinojosa campaigns for comment via email.
Abbott vs. Hinojosa: What to Know About Governor Matchup
Abbott was first elected governor in 2014 and is in his third term after easily winning reelection in 2018 and 2022, making him the longest-serving current governor in the United States. Over the years, he has established himself as among the most conservative governors in the country and a supporter of Trump. Hinojosa has served in the Texas House of Representatives since 2017.
Democrats believe Hinojosa may present the most formidable challenge Abbott has faced yet because of a more favorable national environment for Democrats this year. Both candidates won their respective primaries in March and did not face a runoff.
Left: Texas gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa speaks during a campaign event in Austin on February 17, 2026. Right: Texas Governor Greg Abbott during a bill-signing on April 23, 2025, in Austin.
The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Safe Republican, indicating there may be some ticket splitting between the gubernatorial and Senate races in November that could benefit Abbott.
Joshua Blank, who heads the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, told Newsweek on Wednesday that the gubernatorial race does not appear to be as competitive as the Senate race.
“Abbott has better approval numbers than other Texas Republicans running statewide, and he maintains a massive, massive financial advantage in this race that is unlikely to be made up at this point,” he said.
Hinojosa is in a “tough spot” because she is not particularly well-known as a state representative, while Abbott is known to nearly all voters in Texas, Blank said. Fundraising will be critical because Texas has several large, expensive media markets, he said.
“She starts the race in a familiar position for many Democrats running statewide, largely unknown and generally underfunded,” he said.
Abbott vs. Hinojosa: What Polls Show
The latest Public Policy Polling survey, a Talarico internal, gave Abbott a modest lead over Hinojosa, with 48 percent of respondents saying they would support the governor versus 44 percent for Hinojosa. Eight percent were still unsure.
Abbott’s lead is notable because the poll also showed Talarico with an early advantage in the Senate race—45 percent of respondents said they would back Talarico to 38 percent for Paxton. This suggests some Texans may vote for different parties in the two races. It surveyed 643 Texas voters from May 22-23.
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Another poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center similarly showed Abbott with a single-digit lead with 49 percent to Hinojosa’s 43 percent.
“Abbott (59%) holds a 26-percentage point lead over Hinojosa (33%) among White likely voters, while Hinojosa (81%) holds a 67-percentage point lead over Abbott (14%) among Black likely voters. The two candidates are tied among Latino likely voters at 47% each,” the polling report reads.
It surveyed 1,223 voters from April 22-May 6 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
An earlier poll from the Texas Politics Project gave Abbott 44 percent support to Hinojosa’s 38 percent. It polled 1,200 registered voters from April 1-20 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
Talarico pulling her across the finish line would be “pretty monumental,” according to Blank, noting that while it’s possible Talarico could win, it’s harder to imagine that he would win by a large enough margin to flip other races on the ticket.
What Do Prediction Markets Show?
Abbott is favored in recent prediction markets, holding an 87 percent chance of winning on Polymarket and 88 percent on Kalshi as of Wednesday morning.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Can Democrats Flip Texas?
Democrats have long hoped that Texas would become more competitive because of blue-shifting suburban areas around cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston.
The 2010s saw Democrats gain ground in the state in presidential races, as Republican margins shrank from nearly 16 points in 2012 to 9 points in 2016 to less than 6 points in 2020. Democrats were able to make some races close in Texas, including the 2018 Senate race between GOP Senator Ted Cruz and Democrat Beto O’Rourke.
But Democrats have consistently fallen short in Texas and lost ground in 2024, when Trump carried the state by nearly 14 points—the strongest GOP showing in more than a decade.
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Trump’s strong performance was bolstered by his inroads with Hispanic and Latino voters, a critical bloc in Texas that drifted rightward. But polling suggests many Latino voters who backed Trump may be willing to support Democrats this year. A recent poll from Texas Public Opinion Research found that 56 percent of Latino voters would back Hinojosa, compared to 34 percent for Abbott.
Democrats will need to make gains in the suburbs and win back Latino voters across the state to flip Texas in November. Abbott has never been held to a single-digit race, winning by 11 points in 2022, 13 points in 2018 and more than 20 points in 2014.
Democrats believe Texas has the potential to be competitive this year as Trump’s national approval rating slips and Democratic candidates overperform expectations in special elections across the country.
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