Mexico’s aviation sector is expected to record sustained passenger traffic growth linked to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with Grupo Financiero Monex projecting increases between 4% and 6% during the tournament period and estimating the event could generate between US$1.8 billion and US$3 billion in economic impact nationwide. Airport operators including Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico and Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte are expected to benefit from higher international and domestic passenger flows tied to the competition, which will run from June 11 to July 19 across North America.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will feature 104 matches, with Mexico hosting 13 games in Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey. According to Monex, the tournament will be a key driver of aviation and tourism growth in the country through 2026 and into 2027, although the increase is expected to remain below levels seen in previous host countries because the United States is the primary host nation.
Brian Rodríguez Ontiveros, senior analyst, Monex, said passenger traffic growth during the World Cup in Mexico will likely remain below levels recorded in Russia in 2018 and Qatar in 2022.
“What we have seen historically is that in Russia in 2018 and Qatar in 2022, growth ranged between 8% and 15%, depending on the timing of the tournament,” Rodríguez Ontiveros said. “In Mexico, the effect will be lower because the United States is the main host.”
Monex forecasts passenger traffic growth of 3.9% for ASUR, 2.3% for GAP and 7.3% for OMA in 2026, identifying the World Cup as the primary catalyst behind these projections. Analysts also estimate average tourism growth of between 4% and 5% across airport groups during the tournament cycle.
The report describes the World Cup as a “positive demand shock” that could generate both immediate and structural benefits for Mexico’s aviation ecosystem. According to Monex, demand growth will come through three channels: direct international arrivals to host cities, connecting traffic from North American markets, and increased domestic mobility between destinations within Mexico.
Monex analysts said infrastructure investments completed ahead of the tournament position operators to absorb higher passenger volumes without requiring major additional capital expenditures. The group forecasts a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.5% for Mexico’s airport sector between 2026 and 2029, broadly in line with the industry’s long-term historical trend. Passenger traffic across Mexico’s airport system could increase by as much as 25% by 2029, according to Monex projections.
Regarding Mexico City International Airport, Rodríguez Ontiveros said airlines have increased seat availability after recovering aircraft previously affected by maintenance and supply chain delays. He did not provide a specific passenger growth estimate, noting that operational data for the airport is managed by the Mexican Navy and is not disclosed in the same format used by airport groups.
Tourism authorities estimate the tournament could attract approximately 5.5 million additional visitors, representing a 44% increase in tourism activity during the competition period. Officials also estimate the World Cup could create around 24,000 direct jobs across hospitality, transportation and related sectors.
Consulting firm Deloitte separately projected the tournament could generate an economic impact of approximately US$2.73 billion nationwide, equivalent to around 0.14% of Mexico’s gross domestic product. Analysts noted that aviation, tourism and infrastructure sectors are expected to capture a disproportionate share of spending linked to international visitors and business activity.
Airlines are simultaneously preparing for higher passenger demand while managing rising operating costs linked to fuel, aircraft leasing and maintenance. According to forecasts from the International Air Transport Association, global passenger traffic could surpass 5.2 billion travelers in 2026, representing annual growth of 4.4%.
Within Mexico, airline passenger traffic is projected to increase by an average of 5.9% during 2026. Monex forecasts passenger growth of 4.4% for Aeroméxico, 6.9% for Volaris and 6.1% for Viva.
Monex analysts expect low-cost carriers to capture higher domestic demand through selective capacity deployment and route optimization, while Aeroméxico is projected to benefit primarily from international and corporate travel flows tied to sponsors, media organizations and business delegations attending the tournament.
The report noted that airline performance will continue to depend on fuel costs, exchange rate volatility and aircraft availability. Delivery delays affecting global aircraft manufacturers continue to constrain fleet expansion plans and keep load factors elevated across international routes.
Beyond aviation and tourism, Monex also projects continued expansion in Mexico’s aerospace industry through the remainder of 2026. Janneth Quiroz Zamora, Monex director of economic, exchange rate and stock market analysis, said aerospace exports have continued growing despite uncertainty linked to the review of the USMCA.
“Considering the progress Mexico has made, despite the historical context of the USMCA, these sectors have not been excluded and their exports have continued to grow significantly,” Quiroz Zamora said.
