The Boston Red Sox (23-32) open up a 3-game series against the Cleveland Guardians (33-25) Friday with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch from Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. Let’s analyze MLB odds around the Red Sox vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
2025 season series: Red Sox won 4-2
Boston has lost 5 of its last 6 games after falling 10-2 Thursday against the Atlanta Braves in the rubber match of their series. They failed to cover as a +114 home underdog with the Over (6.5) hitting. 3B Caleb Durbin and LF Jarren Duran each had RBIs, while the Red Sox left 9 runners on base and went just 1 for 5 with runners in scoring position.
Cleveland snapped a 2-game losing streak to avoid being swept by the Washington Nationals Wednesday with a 3-2 win, covering as a -180 home favorite with the Under (7.5) hitting. All 3 of the Guardians’ runs came in the fifth inning on a sacrifice fly and a pair of singles. SP Gavin Williams (7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB 4 K) improved to 8-3.
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Red Sox at Guardians projected starters
LHP Tyler Samaniego vs. RHP Slade Cecconi
Samaniego (0-0, 1.04 ERA) makes his first start and 19th appearance. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 17 1/3 innings.
- Last appearance: No-decision, 1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 K in a 4-2 home loss vs. Minnesota Twins Saturday
- 27-year-old rookie making first appearance against the Guardians
Cecconi (3-5, 5.18 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.48 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 57 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 3-0 road loss against Philadelphia Phillies Saturday
- Career vs. Red Sox: 0-0, 11.81 ERA (5 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 2.06 WHIP, 13.5 K/9 in 1 start
Red Sox at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:36 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Guardians -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-200) | Guardians -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.0 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Red Sox at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 4, Guardians 2
BET RED SOX (+105).
The Red Sox recalled Samaniego from AAA Thursday after a rehab start and he’ll be used as an opener for RHP Brayan Bello, who is expected to enter as the bulk reliever in the second inning. He has had drastically better results following an opener. He has a 0.98 ERA (18 1/3 innings, 2 ER) in his 3 bulk relief appearances compared to a 9.68 ERA (30 2/3 innings, 33 ER) as a starter. Bello is 2-0 with a 3.94 in 3 career starts against the Guardians, including 1 win at Progressive Field.
Samaniego has not allowed a run in 17 of his 18 outings, while holding the opponents hitless in 9 of those outings. He opens against a Guardians offense that has scored 3 or fewer runs in each of their last 8.
PASS.
There is better value on the moneyline for the Red Sox +1.5 (-200).
BET UNDER 8 (-115).
The Guardians have hit the Under in 7 of their last 10, while scoring 3 or fewer runs in 8 games in a row, and allowing 3 or fewer in 9 of their last 11.
The Red Sox have allowed 4 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 9, while scoring 3 or fewer in 5 of their last 10.
With the Guardians’ scoring woes and the Red Sox’s pitching, the Under has great value in the matchup.
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