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It’s time for another prediction and pick for UFC Macau: Song vs. Figueiredo as the Main Card continues with this Welterweight (170) tilt. Australia’s UFC Veteran Jake Matthews will take on Guyana’s Carlston Harris in a can’t-miss matchup from Macau. Check our UFC odds series for the Matthews-Harris prediction and pick.
Jake Matthews (22-8) comes into this bout with a 15-8 UFC record since 2014. He rode an impressive three-fight winning streak over Phil Rowe, Francisco Prado, and Chidi Njokuani until finally dropping his last bout to Neil Magny. Matthews hopes to get back on the winning track as the betting favorite, standing 5-foot-11 with a 73-inch reach.
Carlston Harris (19-7) is 4-3 inside the UFC since 2021, most recently falling to Santiago Ponzinibbio via TKO in January 2025. He had Visa issues and had to withdraw from a bout against Michael Chiese, but returns after significant rest hoping to get back a win as the underdog. Harris stands six feet tall with a 76-inch reach.
UFC Macau Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Macau Odds: Jake Matthews-Carlston Harris Odds
Jake Matthews: -325
Carlston Harris: +260
Over 2.5 rounds: +120
Under 2.5 rounds: -154
Why Jake Matthews Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Neil Magny – SUB (d’arce choke, R3)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 9 SUB
After notching back-to-back unanimous decisions and submitting Chidi Njokuani, Matthews’ trajectory in the division was halted by fellow UFC veteran Neil Magny. Matthews and Magny made for a great fight, but it was clear by the third round that Magny was shifting the momentum with his superior cardio and output. Matthews caught his neck in a bad spot and underestimated the length of Magny’s arms in sinking a choke, something he’ll need to be mindful of against Harris with a similar frame.
Still Jake Matthews should be the better striker between these two and his wrestling is far more technical than Harris’. While Harris may be able to threaten submissions with his long limbs, Matthews does an even better job of staying heavy on top and controlling opponents from side and full mount. If he’s able to do so against Harris, he should have ample opportunity to finish this fight with a submission.
However, with his willingness to grapple comes that fact that Matthews has been submitted four times in the past and isn’t impervious to a sneaky grappler like Harris. Matthews will have to remain fundamental with no wasted movements or allowing any openings for Harris to capitalize.
Why Carlston Harris Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Santiago Ponzinibbio – TKO (punches, R3)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 6 SUB
Carlston Harris recently saw back-to-back losses for the first time in his professional fighting career, both ending via knockout at the hands of the striking. Visa issues during his last bout forced him to pull out, but it could be a blessing in disguise giving him more time to train and recuperate from the previous knockouts. For a fighter like Harris, this will be about getting over the mental block of the last two losses and overcoming underdog odds.
Carlston Harris has a great frame for this division and not only does he use every bit of a 76-inch reach, but he also has incredibly long legs and able to kick opponents while keeping them out of range. He should look to implement much more of that aspect as it’ll only help create space and deter Matthews from shooting for the takedown.
Harris fights behind a 55% takedown defense rate and will need to use every bit of it when facing Matthews. Harris is the significantly more fluid striker, so it’ll only encourage Matthews to seek the takedown and try to earn minutes in ground control. To combat that, Harris should look to force the clinch and land knees to the body in wearing on Matthews’ cardio.
Final Jake Matthews-Carlston Harris Prediction & Pick
Both fighters come into this bout following losses on their records, so both sides should be motivated to find a win and finish this fight. Carlston Harris has a chance to control this fight on the feet if he’s able to maintain the striking distance and remain stern in his takedown defense.
Jake Matthews, on the other hand, is the much more imposing grappler and thrives in keeping downed opponents on the ground, so it’ll be interesting to see how difficult it is for Harris to return to his feet when he’s eventually taken down.
I think the betting odds are right where they need to be as I don’t see Jake Matthews getting caught clean with a Harris punch before he’s able to dominate on the ground. Expect a one-sided showing on the ground as Jake Matthews controls the action and eventually finds a finish in the second-half of this fight.
Final Jake Matthews-Carlston Harris Prediction & Pick: Jake Matthews (-325); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-154)
It’s time for another prediction and pick for UFC Macau: Song vs. Figueiredo as the Main Card continues with this Welterweight (170) tilt. Australia’s UFC Veteran Jake Matthews will take on Guyana’s Carlston Harris in a can’t-miss matchup from Macau. Check our UFC odds series for the Matthews-Harris prediction and pick.
