I don’t know if I’m taking crazy pills, but I don’t understand the thought process behind the rumored AJ Brown price. While the price hasn’t been officially confirmed, lots of people have speculated about what this could potentially be, and it’s where I find myself scratching my head:
A 2027 second round pick? Maybe a 2028 first round pick? Maybe one of those with Kayshon Boutte attached?
I find this incredibly hard to believe.
For starters, he’s arguably a top 5 receiver in football when he’s healthy. It’s not like he’s struggled with Philly; he’s been an absolute beast throughout his entire tenure – gone over 1000 yards every season, couple All-Pro years, multiple big plays in big moments. All this while being the Alpha receiver for the team and taking a large portion of the opposing defenses focus. Being a legitimate Alpha WR1 in today’s NFL is a godsend for an offense, and his ability to do that should not be understated.
Let’s do a blind Resume test of three players since 2022, the year AJ came to the Eagles:
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Player A:
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Age – 27
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Games Played – 62
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Yards – 4024
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TDs – 20
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Player B:
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Age – 28 (almost 29)
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Games Played – 61
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Yards – 5034
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TDs – 32
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Player C
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Age – 29
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Games Played – 68
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Yards – 3900
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TDs – 29
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If I asked you which one you’d take, most likely you’re taking Player B, right? Close in age and games played, but with more yards and TDs than both. That Player is AJ Brown. His 5,000+ receiving yards and 32 TDs were both 5th in the NFL among receivers in that span. Player A is Jaylen Waddle, a guy who plus a 2026 4th rounder was just traded for a 2026 1st, 3rd, and 4th. Player C was DJ Moore, a player who plus a 2026 5th rounder was just traded for a 2026 2nd.
So, two players that are objectively worse than AJ Brown, with a similar age and injury history, are going to net the same package or more? After a precedent has already been set that above-average to elite WRs get traded for a haul? Waddle has less trade value than AJ does, why would Howie accept anything less than what the Dolphins got? It’s not like we’re being forced to trade AJ, we’re accommodating his request. But you can accommodate his request while also not screwing over the team, and I think Howie knows this. To me, it feels like the Waddle deal should be the baseline for any AJ deal.
Financially, I understand the post-June 1st cut will help alleviate the dead cap hit, but it won’t eliminate it entirely. It does free up money long-term, which is nice, but the benefits don’t outweigh the negatives. Trading him makes the Eagles worse on the field and is a blow to their short-term financial situation. Would just a 2027 2nd or 2028 1st be worth taking that hit? I don’t think so considering there’s also the fact that the Eagles have all the leverage in this situation. The Patriots want a player who is on the Eagles, a player that they don’t have to trade because he has multiple years left on his deal. He is very good, helps the Eagles on the field, and is financially tied to the team. Until the Eagles get an offer that they truly can’t say no to, why would they fold?
If you were to say they should fold to get rid of the distraction that AJ can be, I would get that. The discourse surrounding AJ has felt like a never-ending firestorm and had to have been a bit of a disruption to the team dynamic. The divide he had with Jalen and his disgruntle-ness being common knowledge might be the only place where the Eagles lose some footing in negotiations, because everyone knows that he’s leaving. That writing has been on the wall for over a year now, so they believe he’s getting traded for a discount. However, just because people say he’s going for a discount doesn’t mean he actually is, and I don’t believe that to be the case here. His public issues don’t hold more weight than the things the Eagles have on their side, and I don’t think they’re entirely close. Anyone trading for AJ might have one small counter, but the Eagles have a jab, hook, and cross at their disposal.
Personally, I just don’t see how Howie Roseman, someone who a lot of people say is the best GM in football, will let go of arguably a Top 5 WR in the league without getting his money’s worth. He has the cards in this situation, not the other way around. Howie typically thrives in trade negotiations, and that’s usually when he’s the buyer with little leverage in the situation. Now he’s on the other side and completely in the driver’s seat, so I just can’t see a world where he gives up this much leverage in an extremely important, potentially franchise-altering deal.
I think ultimately it could end up like the Tyreek Hill trade to the Dolphins in 2022: a publicly disgruntled 28-year-old Top 5 WR traded for a haul (1st, 2nd, 4th, ’23 4th, and ’23 6th). While I certainly don’t think it’ll be that much, I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s not too far off. Just like with contracts, trade values are always being benchmarked or surpassed. The next GM uses the last guy who was dealt to get their deal done, and as time moves on, positions become more valuable and their trade prices go up. That will work in our favor here – the price for an elite WR1 is through the roof right now, and I hope the Birds use the leverage they have to get a good package in return.
We’ll know in a couple days what the trade terms will officially be when AJ is sent off to most likely New England, but hopefully the reporters were purely speculating this whole time and the compensation isn’t what it’s rumored to be. I’d be very upset if he isn’t traded for anything significant cause it’d feel like such a wasted opportunity, but whatever happens, it’ll be very nice to have this whole story finally behind us. Nice to have it in the rearview, but I will miss AJ very much and will forever love him for his years with the team. He is arguably the most talented receiver I’ve ever seen play for the Eagles, and I’m praying that he can get us one last present on his way out the door in the form of a trade haul.
P.S – I do also have a total tinfoil hat theory that the Pats avoided a tampering fine with the Russini/Vrabel/AJ stuff by agreeing to bake-in some extra trade compensation into the AJ deal. Essentially, the fine they would’ve paid to the Eagles for the tampering is included in the AJ deal. Everyone would win here: NFL wouldn’t have a public scandal that raises a lot of questions, Pats avoid another controversy and get the player they’ve always sought after, and Eagles get compensated for AJ + the tampering. It’s probably pure cope and simply nowhere close to reality, but a guy can dream.
