After vacillating between Florida Derby horse would be my Belmont Stakes top pick, I have rerouted to the Louisiana Derby as the race to key Saturday at Saratoga.
Emerging Market won the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 21 at Fair Grounds, a race in which Golden Tempo finished third before going on to win the Kentucky Derby on May 2 at Churchill Downs. Emerging Market was 10th then but made what could have been a winning move if he was good enough.
He wasn’t, but that was a big ask in career start no. 3. Now Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown has had five weeks to get more out of Emerging Market for the Belmont Stakes, and considering I think he is the best horse in the race, I can’t ignore him at fourth choice with Flavien Prat staying aboard.
Really, though, the value is not on hitting with Emerging Market specifically but fading Golden Tempo and Renegade, as both surely will be overbet after completing the Derby exacta.
I cooled to Chief Wallabee as the Belmont approached because it looks as if he will be second or third choice. There is utility to using him against the top two in the Derby, though, as his fourth-place Derby finish was solid enough.
Florida Derby (G1) winner Commandment was probably the most disappointing of the Derby starters returning for the Belmont, but he is playable as no-worse-than-fourth choice considering that the Derby itself came back “slow” and that Commandment is among those who has shown an ability to run as well or better than either Golden Tempo or Renegade.
Of those who did not run in the Derby, Peter Pan Stakes (G3) winner Growth Equity and recent maiden winner Powershift are far more likely than either Vitruvian Man or Ottinho. Of course, the former pair will be much shorter prices than the latter. I will be using the Amwager dutching tool to see if the 2, 3, 6, 7, 8 exacta box offers value by eliminating Golden Tempo and Renegade.
Belmont Stakes entrant
Trainer
ML
Fair
1. Vitruvian Man
Doug O’Neill
30-1
125-1
2. Powershift
Todd Pletcher
12-1
12-1
3. Chief Wallabee
Bill Mott
3-1
6-1
4. Renegade
Todd Pletcher
2-1
4-1
5. Ottinho
Chad Brown
20-1
45-1
6. Growth Equity
Chad Brown
12-1
10-1
7. Commandment
Brad Cox
6-1
5-1
8. Emerging Market
Chad Brown
6-1
4.5-1
9. Golden Tempo
Cherie DeVaux
9-2
8-1
