Minnesota’s Weather Authority has issued a Forecast First ALERT for Wednesday due to the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.
The overall setup remains somewhat conditional, but there are two distinct rounds of storms we will be tracking between tonight and Wednesday evening.
SEVERE THREAT:
The Storm Prediction Center continues to place much of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro, under an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.
TIMING:
- Midnight – 5 AM Wednesday: The first round of storms develops across the Dakotas and moves eastward into Minnesota. This will likely organize into a squall line capable of producing damaging wind gusts, especially across western Minnesota. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to reach the Twin Cities metro between roughly 2 AM and 5 AM.
- 5 AM – Noon Wednesday: Morning storms gradually move east. During this time, we’ll be watching closely to see how much cloud cover and leftover rain remains behind. This is a critical part of the forecast.
- 2 PM – 5 PM Wednesday: The second round of storms is expected to develop along and near the I-35 corridor as daytime heating combines with lingering boundaries from the morning storms.
- 5 PM – 10 PM Wednesday: Storms should grow and organize as they push eastward into Wisconsin, where the greatest severe weather risk may ultimately reside.
THREATS:
The primary concern with the overnight storms will be damaging straight-line winds, especially across western Minnesota as the squall line moves east.
For the afternoon and evening storms, the greatest threats appear to be:
- Large hail
- Isolated tornadoes
- Damaging winds
Storms may initially develop as more discrete cells capable of producing hail and isolated tornadoes. As they move east into Wisconsin and begin to organize, the threat may transition toward stronger and more widespread wind damage.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION:
The biggest caveat remains the morning round of storms.
If clouds and leftover showers linger through much of Wednesday afternoon, instability would be limited across eastern Minnesota. In that scenario, the more significant severe weather threat would likely shift farther east into Wisconsin, reducing impacts across the Twin Cities metro.
If skies recover quickly and sunshine returns during the afternoon, severe weather potential would increase across eastern Minnesota before storms move into Wisconsin.
Beyond the storms, temperatures will remain summer-like. Highs Wednesday will reach the upper 80s with very humid conditions before cooler and quieter weather arrives late week.
Thursday brings clouds and scattered showers with highs in the 70s. Friday looks warm and pleasant with sunshine returning and highs near 80°.
As always, stay tuned to Minnesota’s Weather Authority through the overnight hours and throughout Wednesday as we continue refining the severe weather forecast and monitoring storm development in real time.
Download the KSTP app below for the latest weather alerts.
