The Boston Red Sox (27-38) will finish up their road trip and look to avoid a sweep as they face off against the Tampa Bay Rays (39-25) in the third and final game of their series this afternoon. Boston has been careening, losers of five of their last seven games, while Tampa Bay has righted the ship with back-to-back wins after being swept by the Detroit Tigers and losing two out of three to the Miami Marlins. With Boston at the bottom of the AL East and the Rays technically at the top by .003 over the Yankees, this game and series have a sort of “ships passing in the night” dynamic.
Today’s game at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay should be a good one, so let’s break the matchup down and provide our best bet for the contest.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
A pretty strong correlation for both teams, which has manifested itself in how they’ve played lately, shows up in some of the betting trends. The game total has gone under in the last five games for Tampa Bay and in four of the last five for the Red Sox. Both teams have had so much trouble scoring in recent games, but the pitching has gotten both teams by when needed.
The MLB odds board has the Rays listed as -150 favourites.
Boston Red Sox
Boston has been on a three-game losing streak and will likely be eager to get back home to play again on Friday. That said, they must play this one with the calls for general manager Craig Breslow to be fired. After a hot start, interim manager Chad Tracy is no lock to even remain the manager.
Willson Contreras, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu are carrying the offense for the Red Sox so far this season, but they’ve gotten very little contributions from anybody else in the lineup. They need a bat in a major way, but we’ll see if the Sox can pull the trigger on one. They’re obviously a big-market team that usually isn’t in this position this early in the season, so they may try to spend a little to dig out of their two-month hole.
Tampa Bay Rays
Both teams are in an extended skid, with the Rays 5-10 in their last 15 games. Still, they’ve managed to keep hold of the AL East. They’re going to have to reel off some wins, and against the Red Sox, they have. They can sweep with a win today, but they’ll have to score some more runs to do so. Tampa Bay is hitting just .205 as a team over the last week, and their pitching has been a bit shakier than usual.
Still, they’re trotting out much more on offense and on the mound than Boston can even fathom right now, with Junior Caminero (14 HR, 30 RBI, .872 OPS) and Yandy Diaz (.325, 12 HR, 44 RBI, .935 OPS) both carrying this offense for most of the season. They always seem to find a way to punch way higher than anybody gives them credit for, a hallmark of the Rays this season.
Who Will Win Red Sox vs. Rays?
Boston has Jake Bennett listed as the starting pitcher at the time of this writing. Bennett, one of Boston’s top pitching prospects, started two games last month and gave up a combined five earned runs against the Astros and Rays at home. The home team Rays will counter with Drew Rasmussen, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball so far through two months and change. Rasmussen has a 3.00 ERA and a 5-2 record through 12 starts this season.
With the Rays stringing together back-to-back wins against a sinking Red Sox team, Tampa Bay should be good to complete the sweep today. We like Tampa Bay to beat the Red Sox today at Tropicana Field.
