Opinion: Donald Trump can’t open the Strait of Hormuz, so instead he’s blocking the Strait of Detroit
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The Gordie Howe International Bridge in Windsor on Thursday. Canada picked up the tab for the recently-completed bridge, but it still hasn’t opened because Trump doesn’t want it open, writes Tony Keller.Dax Melmer/The Globe and Mail
In the ancient world, when someone wanted to know what tomorrow would bring, he might consult a haruspex – an expert at divining the future based on the study of the entrails of dead animals. Usually chicken or sheep.
Leaders of state and captains of industry could also turn to their augur, who had advanced training in what was known as taking the auspices. This involved predicting the future by studying the flight of birds.
Those in need of expert counsel might also try belomancy – divination by arrows.
In the Old Testament Book of Ezekiel, it says that when the king of Babylon came to a fork in the road he would “seek an omen” to tell him how to proceed. “He will cast lots with arrows, he will consult his idols, he will examine the liver.”
What was the success rate of the strategic divination services of Goldmanus Saxus and McKinseyus Maximus? Unknown.
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But we may want to consider reviving these ancient predictive practices, to help us anticipate the meandering of Mad King Donald. It’s worth a shot. Foie gras necroscopy and random avian flight path analysis may be irrational; so is a lot of what U.S. President Donald Trump does and says. Especially with regard to Canada.
This week, he continued to fail at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which since Mr. Trump’s alleged total military obliteration of Iran has been almost entirely closed by that defeated country. But, in compensation, the President is successfully impeding passage over the Strait of Detroit – which until his return to office was the most important link in what had been the world’s most important trading relationship.
Canada picked up the tab for a new bridge over previously untroubled waters, but the recently-completed Gordie Howe International Bridge between Detroit and Windsor, symbol of friendship and avenue of commerce, still hasn’t opened. Why? Because Mr. Trump doesn’t want it open. Why not? Ask the chicken livers.
The President is squeezing a pressure point related to the United States-Canada-Mexico Agreement, and the Canada-U.S. relationship generally. But as always, it’s unclear what point he is trying to make, or what he wants to achieve.
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This has been his problem since day one of his war with Iran. Why are you doing this? What do you want? What will you settle for? He does not know. Things would be clearer if he stopped following his perfidious gut and turned foreign policy over to an expert in animal gut-based decision making.
On a related matter, Mr. Trump said this week that he “wasn’t looking to renew the USCMA.” That was the headline. But as with everything he says, there was more to the story. And less.
In a rambling two-and-a-half minute answer to a reporter’s question about the state of USCMA negotiations, Mr. Trump started by saying that he wasn’t looking to renew the trade pact, but immediately added that USCMA “was a much better deal than” the previous North American Free Trade Agreement. He repeated “much, much better” – and then changed his mind and walked it back to “it was sort of a good deal.”
He then said that the best thing about the USCMA was that it gave him “the right to terminate” the USCMA. He then wandered off into a soliloquy about how “they rigged the election,” so he wouldn’t be president again – and then thanked God for returning him to the Oval Office, so he could make use of the termination clause to terminate a deal that he originally praised as the best trade deal ever.
He ended his answer by shifting positions once more, saying of USCMA renewal negotiations with Canada and Mexico, “so we’re talking to them, we’ll see if we do something.”
The response from Ottawa has been to wisely ignore most of the jibber-jabber of off-the-cuff presidential performances and midnight social media posts.
Gordie Howe Bridge still not open? Be patient, the existing border crossings are all there. The President says he might want to end USCMA? Okay, but he also said, in the same breath, that he might not. In any case, if he wants the agreement to become history, he’ll have to go through Congress, which ratified the treaty.
We know what would be a rational, self-interested U.S. policy: sticking with the USMCA as-is, or else calmly proposing small modifications to strengthen what had been a mutually beneficial Canada-U.S. relationship.
Something close to the status quo may be what we end up with. Or not. Either way, our Odyssey is just begun, and drama and chaos await us. You don’t need a haruspex to know that.
