The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians meet for Game 3 of their best-of-3 AL Wild Card Series Thursday at Progressive Field in Cleveland. The series is tied 1-1. First pitch is scheduled for 3:08 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Regular-season series: Guardians won 8-5
The Guardians bounced back in Game 2 with a 6-1 victory to set up a winner-take-all game Thursday afternoon at Progressive Field.
Cleveland took a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the first inning with a solo homer from OF George Valera, his first MLB home run. In the top of the fourth inning, Tigers SS Javier Baez drove in a run to tie the game, and he finished 2-for-4 with the only RBI. It was tied 1-1 until the bottom of the eighth inning, when 2B Brayan Rocchio belted a solo homer and C Bo Naylor followed with a 3-run shot, as the Guardians broke it open. It was surprising to see Cleveland hit 3 homers with the wind blowing in from right field to home plate at 12-18 mph throughout the game.
Tigers RHP Casey Mize allowed only a solo homer to Valera as his lone hit, with 2 walks over 3 innings. However, he ran into trouble in the fourth, prompting manager A.J. Hinch to call on LHP Tyler Holton, who provided 2 1/3 scoreless innings of relief. RHP Kyle Finnegan then worked 1 2/3 scoreless frames, but RHP Troy Melton was tagged for 4 earned runs on 3 hits and a walk while retiring just 1 batter.
History is still on Detroit’s side, as the winner of Game 1 in a Wild Card series has gone on to win the series 18 times in 20 opportunities — a .900 winning percentage.
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Tigers at Guardians projected starters
RHP Jack Flaherty vs. RHP Slade Cecconi
Flaherty (8-15, 4.64 ERA) made 31 regular-season starts. He posted a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 161 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 5-1 defeat at Guardians Sept. 24
- Last 7 regular-season starts: 2-3, 4.21 ERA (36 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 8.7 K/9
- 2025 road stats: 3-7, 5.27 ERA (68 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 in 14 starts
- 2025 vs. Guardians: 0-3, 3.94 ERA (16 IP, 7 ER), 11 H, 7 BB, 18 K in 3 starts
- Career vs. Guardians: 2-5, 2.51 ERA (57 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 in 10 starts
Cecconi (7-7, 4.30 ERA) made 23 regular-season starts. He posted a 1.19 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 132 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 7-3 home defeat vs. Texas Rangers Sept. 26
- Last 7 regular-season starts: 2-1, 3.86 ERA (42 IP, 18 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 7.1 K/9
- 2025 home stats: 2-4, 4.78 ERA (69 2/3 IP, 37 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 5.8 K/9 in 12 starts
- Career vs. Tigers: 1-1, 2.25 ERA (12 IP, 3 ER), 11 H, 4 BB, 11 K in 2 starts in 2025
Tigers at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Tigers +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Guardians -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers -1.5 (+170) | Guardians +1.5 (-210)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -118 | U: -102)
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Tigers at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 6, Tigers 3
The GUARDIANS (-120) catch a break facing the Tigers in the Wild Card round, as they’ll only have to deal with LHP Tarik Skubal once. Cleveland gets an even bigger break by drawing the inconsistent Flaherty.
Flaherty has posted a 4.60 ERA over his past 15 starts, while Cecconi finished strong with a 2-1 record and a 3.68 ERA across his final 7 outings. He also recorded 2 quality starts against the Tigers this season.
On the flip side, Flaherty took 15 losses in the regular season and dropped all 3 of his starts against the Guardians.
The Guardians +1.5 (-210) will cost you more than twice your potential return if you’re looking for a little insurance on the home team.
It’s too much risk for not enough reward, even if you were to use a boost or promo.
PASS.
OVER 7 (-118) is the play in Game 3.
The Under cashed in Game 1, and the total pushed at most shops in Game 2 after the 5-run eighth inning.
The wind helped keep scores down in the first 2 games, and you’d expect another low-scoring matchup in an elimination game. However, Flaherty has been very giving, and Cecconi has been mediocre overall. The wind will also subside, shifting from blowing in to a more neutral 4-7 mph breeze from right to left.
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