Photo:
Candice Chavez / Eclipse Sportswire
Saratoga Springs, N.Y.
Seven horses from the older male dirt division and one filly will assemble Saturday at Saratoga for the Grade 1, $1 million Whitney, a win-and-you’re-in qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Keeneland on Oct. 31. The field of eight includes five who are ranked in the top 10 of the latest NTRA Top Thoroughbred poll.
All but one of the horses entered in the Whitney have career earnings ranging from $1.2 million to $9.61 million, and there are six Grade 1 and two Grade 2 winners. Combined, the eight horses have 49 wins and more than $32.79 million in purse money to their credit.
Here is a full-field analysis for the Whitney with the official track morning-line odds. The Whitney is set as race 12 of 14 with post time scheduled for 6:37 p.m. EDT.
1. Magnitude, 9-5. Not This Time – Steve Asmussen / Jose Ortiz – 14: 8-2-1 – $9,611,365. Magnitude is a Grade and Group 1 winner of his two most recent starts in the Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs and the rich Dubai World Cup at Meydan Racecourse. Going back to November, he won his last four races in graded stakes. Magnitude is on top of the latest NTRA poll after getting all but two of the first-place votes this week. The Steve Asmussen stable star earned triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures, according to Daily Racing Form, in six of his last seven races. He is the leading money earner in the field and is in 19th position on the all-time list. Top pick.
2. Nitrogen, 4-1. Medaglia d’Oro – Mark Casse / John Velazquez –16: 8-5-3 – $2,730,854. Nitrogen never finished out of the top three in her 16 starts, which include a pair of Grade 1 victories in the 2025 Alabama and the Ogden Phipps in June. Those wins are part of her perfect three-race record at Saratoga. Nitrogen’s recent victory was the best of her career when she used a front-end effort to overwhelm the Phipps field by almost 13 lengths and earned her first triple-digit Beyer, 113. The filly is ranked no. 9 in the NTRA poll. Regular rider Jose Ortiz will move to Magnitude in the Whitney, and John Velazquez will get on board the filly. This certainly is the toughest field possible in which to take on her male counterparts. Can’t be ignored.
3. Antiquarian, 10-1. Perservationist – Todd Pletcher / Manny Franco – 13: 5-3-0 – $1,200,350. Antiquarian picked up his Grade 1 score in last year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga when he beat a field of eight at 13-1. Since then, the 5-year-old ran in four more graded stakes with one victory in the Suburban (G3) last month. As part of the jockey changes happening in the Whitney, Velazquez makes the switch to Nitrogen, and Manny Franco will ride the son of Preservationist for Todd Pletcher. Pletcher has four Whitney wins, including with Lawyer Ron in 2007 and Life Is Good in 2022. Toss.
4. Forged Steel, 20-1. Vekoma – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Micah Husbands – 19: 5-3-3 – $436,130. Forged Steel is one of the Grade 2 winners in the race, with an open-length victory in the Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita in May. That more than nine-length win was against a field of five going 10 furlongs. On that day he got a 102 Beyer, which was the only triple-digit speed figure of his career, but last seen he was a distant fifth in the Suburban (G2) after a troubled start. If he runs in the race on Saturday, he can be expected to be out front to set a fast pace for his stablemate White Abarrio. Toss.
5. White Abarrio, 8-1. Race Day – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 21: 11-3-3 – $8,583,170. White Abarrio’s four Grade 1 wins came in the 2025 Pegasus World Cup, the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Whitney in 2023, and the 2022 Florida Derby. His most recent victory was in April in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) when he defeated Sovereignty and Journalism. White Abarrio is tied for seventh in the NTRA poll. The Whitney was the only time in five tries that White Abarrio found the Saratoga winner’s circle, and at that point he was trained by Rick Dutrow Jr. On his best day White Abarrio is a serious win contender, but this field is stacked and I like others better. Prefer others.
6. Sovereignty, 3-1. Into Mischief – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 11: 6-3-1 – $6,326,550. Sovereignty won three Grade 1 stakes in his championship campaign of 2025 in the Travers, the Belmont Stakes and the Kentucky Derby. His four-race winning streak came to an end this year when he was second in the Oaklawn Handicap and the Stephen Foster (G1) at Churchill in June behind Magnitude and Baeza. Racing against this formidable 2026 group of older horses would be a big challenge for any horse. He is ranked at no. 5 in this week’s top Thoroughbred poll. Sovereignty has been working well since the Foster and will not be an odds-on favorite for the first time in five races. Win contender.
7. Tiztastic, 30-1. Tiz the Law – Steve Asmussen / Tyler Gaffalione – 15: 4-1-3 – $1,739,305. Tiztastic is the other Grade 2 winner in the Whitney as the winner of the Louisiana Derby (G2) on the 2025 Kentucky Derby trail and was the 10th in the run for the roses. Since then, he ran six times, with only an allowance victory in May at Churchill and a distant third-place finish in the Suburban. Jose Ortiz rode Tiztastic in his last two starts, but Tyler Gaffalione has the mount Saturday. Toss.
8. Baeza, 7-2. McKinzie – Bill Mott / Flavien Prat – 11: 2-4-2 – $2,164,700. Baeza became a Grade 1 winner in the Pennsylvania Derby, which was his final start in a restricted stakes for 3-year-olds last year. Since then, he was sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, third in the Alysheba (G2) and second in the Foster. Baeza is tied for no. 7 in the NTRA poll. Mott took over training Baeza for his two starts this year. The Hall of Fame trainer won the Whitney in 2024 with Arthur’s Ride. Win contender.
Summary: With Grade 1 wins for six of the seven contenders in this year’s Whitney, all have past races that are good enough to win on Saturday.
I have voted for Magnitude as the top horse since he won the Dubai World Cup over Forever Young in March. His win in the Stephen Foster against Baeza and Sovereignty convinced me even more. Thus, I have no choice but to make Magnitude the top pick to win this year’s exciting edition of the Whitney.
