The Holy War is just a day away from kicking off. The Big Noon Kickoff crew will be in town and the tickets for this game are more expensive than any other college football game this weekend. Utah is a slight favorite in this game according to oddsmakers, but other advanced analytics like FPI and SP+ call this game a coin flip.
In what is expected to be a really close game, BYU will have advantages to lean into pitfalls to avoid. We’ll break down BYU’s primary advantages in this game and its primary disadvantages as well.
1. BYU has been able to run against every team it has played
BYU is averaging 238 rushing yards per game which ranks 11th nationally. Most notably, BYU has been able to establish the run against every opponent: BYU’s worst rushing output of the season was 177 yards against Stanford.
Against Arizona, BYU ran for 258 yards. Prior to that game, the Wildcats had allowed just 98 rushing yards per game.
BYU’s offensive strength matches up against the one area where Utah has been most vulnerable on defense. Typically, the Utes are one of the best defenses nationally agains the run. This year, though, Utah ranks 67th in rushing yards allowed per game. In conference play, Utah has allowed 194 rushing yards per game.
Utah is going to sellout against the run and force Bear Bachmeier to beat them with his arm, but there should be opportunities for BYU to move the ball on the ground in this game.
2. BYU’s pass defense limits explosive plays
BYU’s defense ranks 15th nationally in passing plays of 20+ yards allowed. The Cougars rank second nationally in passing plays of 30+ yards or more. The Cougars rarely allow chunk plays in the air.
Utah, meanwhile, has struggled to create chunk plays in the passing game. The Utes rank 97th in pass plays of 20+ yards or more.
Overall, Utah ranks 73rd nationally in plays of 20 yards or more.
BYU’s defense should have the capability to bring an extra safety into the box to stop the run.
1. BYU has struggled to get after the quarterback, and Utah protects its quarterback
BYU struggled to get after the quarterback last week. Arizona was a team that allowed multiple sacks a game prior to that matchup, but BYU failed to sack Noah Fifita once. Of course, BYU was without ace pass rusher Jack Kelly who will play in this game. Kelly’s return is massively important for BYU’s pass rush.
Still, Utah has protected Devon Dampier as well as any offensive line in the country. Dampier has been pressured on just 22.2% of his dropbacks. Only 11 quarterbacks in the country have been pressured less than Dampier this season.
This is an advantage that Utah has in this game that BYU will need to scheme against. The Utes have two potential first-round draft picks at tackle and BYU’s defensive ends haven’t tallied a sack this season. In previous games, Jay Hill has dialed up blitzes with Jack Kelly and Isaiah Glasker right up the middle. Perhaps that’s BYU’s best best at getting after Devon Dampier in this game.
2. Redzone offense
Utah has been one of the best redzone offenses in the country. The same can’t be said for BYU’s offense. While BYU is better at getting into scoring range than almost any team in the country (BYU ranks third nationally in quality drive rate), the Cougars rank 85th nationally in points per quality drive.
Utah, on the other hand, ranks 10th in points per quality drive.
It was BYU’s redzone failures that kept the game close last year. The Cougars had multiple chances inside the 10 yard-line, but they were forced to settle for field goals all but one time in that game. Fortunately for BYU, Utah’s redzone defense hasn’t been as proficient as it’s been in the past. The Utes rank 71st in points allowed per quality possession.
When BYU has scoring opportunities in this game, they need to take advantage of them. That will be the difference in the game, because the data suggests Utah will take advantage of their scoring opportunities.
